Pacquiao vs. Barrios Picks for July 19: Fade or Bet the Return of the Pac-Man?

Pacquiao vs. Barrios Betting Preview: The Return of a Legend

Almost four years to the month since Manny Pacquiao was out-pointed by Yordenis Ugas, the 12-time world champion has decided to creep out of retirement and challenge the current WBC welterweight titleholder!

Pac-Man looks lean. He cleared medical checks with no hiccups, and his experience against some of the greatest boxers in sports history should be enough to give his fans belief.

However, will the reality of returning against the new generation, following years of absence from the sport, prove too much for the beloved Filipino? Caesars Sportsbook might believe it so, as his moneyline is being priced at around +240.

Meanwhile, Mario Barrios may not have the pay-per-view drawing power that Pacquiao holds, but the current WBC champion has been actively fighting the division’s best since 2021. While wins and losses are present on his record, aged just 30, he’ll be entering the ring in the prime of his career. As a result, he is rightfully the betting favorite, with his moneyline priced at -235.

Barrios won’t just hold a significant height, reach, and age advantage. He’s also done something that Pacquiao couldn’t do in his most recent pro contest: defeat Ugas!

Pacquiao vs. Barrios Analysis: The Sweet Science Breakdown

It’s hard to differentiate concern from excitement ahead of Pacquiao’s return. Still, I think we can all agree on one thing: Should he enter this fight with the same sloppiness he did in his exhibition bout against Rukiya Anpo, he’s in for a world of trouble.

Anpo was making his boxing debut, and there were multiple times when he was too fast-footed and quicker to the punch than a lethargic version of Pac-Man. We’ve all seen the comparisons of Pacquiao to Mike Tyson fighting Jake Paul. However, Barrios isn’t the Problem Child. He’s a skilled individual with some serious issues that could harm an aging veteran.

Barrios Moneyline: Pacquiao vs. Barrios Best Bet Formula

I’m not sure if it’s media hype or delusional Pac-Man fans, but the available boxing odds have gone from an opening moneyline of -700, all the way down to -235 on Barrios!

I honestly expected the boxing lines to go in the other way because, much like Tyson fighting Paul, the only proof we have of Pacquiao having the skills to compete at this level is from outdated tape.

We know that Pacquiao was looking incredibly slow to the punch when matched against a boxing debutant. He might show some fireworks early this weekend, as he’s still Pac-Man after all. However, those later rounds could get ugly, as the younger, hungrier, faster, and larger man delivers more damaging shots.

Barrios will need to figure out the timing of Pacquiao, which shouldn’t be hard given his decline in reflex and speed. This will allow him to probe his jabs and force the Filipino legend to get into range. Not only will this open up fight-ending moments, but it’ll also assist him on the score cards with produce counters throughout the fight.

This one’s a no-brainer for me. And with such a fair moneyline price, we don’t need to risk it on the prop market. Instead, let’s play Barrios for the win at -235.