The NFL has four great games ready for this divisional round weekend. We used the OddsTrader BetStation app to find the best computer-generated predictions for this week’s games.
You can find the app to download for free using your device’s app store. It will show you statistical comparisons of each matchup, information on past meetings as well as spread movement, injury news, and even the weather forecast.
We ranked the top three picks (spreads or totals) from the OddsTrader app for the NFL’s divisional round, including which online sportsbook is offering the best price.
3. Playoff Underdog Doug Pederson Seeks Another Upset
This season, NFL teams that are minus 3 or worse in turnover differential are 2-37 (.051). The last win was Jacksonville overcoming a minus 5 turnover differential to beat the Chargers in the Wild Card Playoffs last week, the only time in playoff history that’s happened.
But the only other such win this year was when the Chiefs lost the turnover battle 3-0 to the Jaguars in a 27-17 win in Week 10. Jacksonville is 7-1 since that game and looking for one of its biggest upsets in franchise history this week as Doug Pederson takes on his former mentor Andy Reid.
The Jaguars are an 8.5-point road underdog with a total of 53 points at the NFL odds.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 21, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Pederson as an Underdog
They may as well start carving out a bust for Doug Pederson if he pulls this runoff this year in the playoffs. He is 6-0 ATS in his playoff career as an underdog. If that’s not great enough, he is 5-1 SU in those games, and he might be 6-0 if the 2018 Eagles did not tip a pass into an interception in New Orleans in the divisional round.
Pederson is no stranger to taking chances in these games and fully embracing the underdog role. He had the Jaguars go for a two-point conversion late in last week’s comeback win, and the fourth-and-1 play design to Travis Etienne was a risky but brilliant call to set up the game-winning field goal in the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history.
Turnovers Are Key for Jaguars
The Chiefs are 4-0 in the divisional round in the Patrick Mahomes era, but this team is susceptible to turnovers while not getting enough of them on defense. The Chiefs finished 14-3 despite a minus 3 turnover margin this year.
The Jaguars are still in the playoffs thanks to some huge turnovers late in the year, including a pick-six in overtime to beat the Cowboys, and they forced Tennessee backup quarterback Josh Dobbs to fumble for a touchdown in Week 18 to win the AFC South.
Trevor Lawrence went from the worst game of his career with four interceptions in the first half when it was 27-0 to a brilliant finish where he threw four touchdown passes. We’ll see which version of him shows up for this game, but in Week 10, he kept the turnovers to zero. He just has to get rid of the ball better after taking five sacks that game.
Nothing Similar Since 1996
The Jaguars have three comeback wins from a 17-point deficit in their last 10 games. This franchise had zero such wins in their first 455 games since entering the league in 1995. Now this team is trying to make a spirited run from 2-6 to the AFC Championship Game not unlike what the 1996 Jaguars did behind Tom Coughlin and Mark Brunell.
That team upset John Elway and the Denver Broncos in the divisional round, and the Jaguars have a shot to do the same here if they are aggressive enough on fourth downs and get a couple of good bounces.
But these comeback wins and high-scoring wins are excellent for a Jacksonville team that has not been able to win any of those games in recent years. Now this team can feel confident even if things start poorly and they have to come back.
The Pick
Ideally, they do not fall behind that much, but we have seen Andy Reid-coached teams in Kansas City blow leads of 28, 18, and 18 points in the last decade in the playoffs.
The Jaguars have only lost two games by more than one possession this year. A backdoor cover is always an option too, but the Chiefs are just 6-10-1 ATS this year.
Take Jacksonville to keep it close against a Kansas City team that has needed comebacks against Houston and Denver down the stretch.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 30 – Jaguars 22
NFL Pick: Jaguars +8.5 (-108) at FanDuel
2. Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen: Quarterback Duel
The rematch of the Week 17 game that was not meant to be. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will finally square off in the first official matchup between quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Fireworks are expected, though there could be an inch of snow in Buffalo. That’s not a big deal for these outdoor teams though.
The Bills are a 5-point home favorite with a total of 48.5 points.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Expect Offensive Showdown
From the nine minutes of action we saw in Week 17, it looked like these teams are going to have success at moving the ball against each other. It just comes down to third downs, red zone stops, turnovers, and the fourth quarter as to who is going to pull out the win.
Cincinnati’s offensive line is a concern with three starters out, but the team has managed less talent there before, and they are still loaded with Burrow and a great receiving corps. He can get rid of the ball faster, and even in games when he takes a lot of sacks, he still usually puts up numbers.
If the Dolphins can go into Buffalo and score 31 points with a rookie quarterback completing 18-of-45 passes with two picks and drops galore, then the Bengals can manage something here.
What Bengals Need to Win
The Dolphins also turned the Bills over three times, and that is something the Bengals can do too. They scored a huge defensive touchdown to win the game against Baltimore by stuffing a quarterback sneak and returning the loose ball 98 yards, the longest fumble scoop touchdown in playoff history.
The Bengals just have this way of forcing turnovers in big moments, and the Bills have 30 giveaways in 17 games, which is very problematic for their title hopes.
But Buffalo is the better team and should win if they do not shoot themselves in the foot. The Bengals are a tough out and can score with the best of teams, and both teams come in hot.
The Pick
Look for the quarterbacks to play very well and for this to be an exciting game that hits the over. Maybe a little less higher scoring than the BetStation sees it – think 27-24 range – but that is always possible when you put Allen and Burrow on the field with Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, Gabe Davis, etc.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Bengals 25
NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (-103) at SBK
1. Classic NFC Matchup Between Cowboys and 49ers
Two longtime NFC rivals meet in the Bay Area as the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers face off for the second postseason in a row. The 49ers frustrated Mike McCarthy’s offense in a 23-17 upset in Dallas in the Wild Card round last year, one of the early signs of how good defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans’ unit can be.
The game was famous for Dak Prescott running a designed quarterback draw with the clock running out and the Cowboys out of timeouts. The clock expired before Dak could get the spike off to set up a Hail Mary.
The 49ers look even better this year while the Cowboys are coming off their best (and only) road playoff win in the last 30 years in Tampa Bay.
The 49ers are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium
What the Maher Situation Means for Dallas
Every game on Wild Card Weekend hit the over except for the Dallas game, which finished at 31-14 with a total of 45.5 points. You can say Dallas kicker Brett Maher was the culprit as he missed four extra points, the first time in NFL history any kicker had done that in a single game. He missed four in a row to make it look even worse.
At least Maher hit his fifth field goal, but McCarthy is going to have to be skeptical about using him in this game. Maybe dial up some two-point conversions just in case.
Two Great Offenses Meet
That San Francisco defense is tough to crack though, but it is far from impossible to score on as several teams have shown. Even Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders were in a shootout with these 49ers late in the year. Dallas scored at least 27 points in nine straight games at one point this year, tied for the seventh-longest streak in NFL history. This team can score a lot as long as it is avoiding horrible turnovers.
However, the 49ers have a great shot to lead the way to hitting this over as no team is scoring more points since rookie quarterback Brock Purdy took over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13.
Shoutout to Brock Purdy
In his first playoff game, Purdy passed for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Brandon Aiyuk even dropped Purdy’s most impressive play of the day, an improv job that even Patrick Mahomes would bow to, or he could have had 345 yards and four touchdown passes to go along with a touchdown run.
Either way, it’s the first time since 1937 that a rookie quarterback threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff game. The great Sammy Baugh did that, and any time you can be compared to Baugh, it’s a big deal.
The 49ers are tempting fate here with no rookie quarterback ever starting a Super Bowl, and Purdy just tied Justin Herbert’s record with a seventh-straight game with at least two touchdown passes. At some point, he has to look like a rookie, right?
But Purdy’s decent mobility should do him favors as you saw a 45-year-old Tom Brady on Monday night refused to hold the ball and take any hits from Dallas. He wanted no piece of that defense while Purdy has youth on his side. He also has an incredible collection of talent, and it’s up to Kyle Shanahan if he wants this to be a Deebo Samuel and George Kittle week, or if Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey are good enough to lead the way.
The Pick
The 49ers are the better team, but this should be a pretty entertaining game with plenty of points scored to hit the over. For as great as the 49ers are on defense, they are not impossible to light up as we saw the Chiefs score 44 earlier this year.
Prescott has always led Dallas to at least 17 points in the playoffs, so look for both teams to score at least 23 this Sunday, ensuring the over 46.5 hits as this one is not ending in a tie.
Hopefully, it won’t end in another ill-advised quarterback draw either.
Final Score Prediction: 49ers 29 – Cowboys 26
NFL Pick: Over 46.5 (-105) at SBK
