Thunder vs. Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Computer Picks for May 24: Defense Reigns in Minnesota 

As of this morning, the Thunder are favored by as many as three points and the over/under is as high as 218. 

Our computers project a tight game that will finish with 217 points. In alignment with this projection, I recommend wagering on the “under.” 

Thunder Home vs. Away

I prefer attacking the total because it is inflated by two things that will be irrelevant tonight. One of those things is Oklahoma City’s general success on offense. The second thing is Oklahoma City’s determination to play fast.

To focus on the first thing, consider that the Thunder’s dominance is, to a large extent, a product of their ability to play the way that they want to play. They are a transition-heavy team that wants to run in a track meet-style game. At home, teams find greater success in establishing their preferred style of playing.

So, it is no surprise that the Thunder offense is better at home than on the road. Oddsmakers and bettors are enamored by the Thunder because they have dominated in this series so far, but a play on the “over” and the high total posted by oddsmakers both underappreciate the significance of location.

Road Performance Tells the Real Story

This significance, in fact, extends beyond matters of play style. Even against a Memphis team that also likes to play fast, Oklahoma City declined on the road relative to what it did at home. In that series, the Thunder had their two lowest point totals on the road.

The significance of location was even more visible in Round 2 against a Denver team that, importantly, like Minnesota, wants to slow things down and establish a half-court-type of game.

In that series, whereas the Thunder scored 119, 149, and 125 points in three respective home games, they scored 104 (including overtime), 92, and 107 points in three respective road games.

Expect a Bigger Drop

Their decline on the road is remarkable when you consider the quality of Denver’s defense: in the regular season, the Nuggets ranked 21st in defensive rating.

One must expect an even greater decline from OKC’s offense tonight against a Minnesota defense that ranked a solid sixth in defensive rating in the regular season.

Logically speaking, it makes absolute sense to expect the Thunder to reach 100 points tonight, which, for the “over” to hit, would require the Timberwolves to attain a massive point total against what is likewise an elite Thunder defense, a defense that ranked first in defensive rating in the regular season.

Minnesota Lacks Reliable Scoring Options

The Timberwolves are averaging 95.5 points per game in this series, and they will continue to struggle. Their outcome is negative tonight because their stars are overwhelmed.

Anthony Edwards, battling an injured ankle that limits his shot creation, has to deal with OKC’s elite perimeter defenders. This year, Luguentz Dort is a first-team All-Defensive Team selection. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a second-team All-Defensive Team selection. Alex Caruso is a multiple-time All-Defensive Team selection.

Edwards really needs a second effective scorer to take pressure off him offensively. He obviously can’t do it all himself against OKC’s top-ranked defense. But Julius Randle has been almost completely negated by the Thunder defense. They have held him to a combined total of 14 points in the last six quarters between these teams. Their success is a product of their small lineup, which Randle clearly struggles against.

Role Players Providing No Help

After Edwards and Randle, Minnesota simply lacks options. Its role players have been horrible: Donte DiVincenzo has struggled throughout the playoffs to revive his regular-season three-point efficiency; Naz Reid is 0-for-12 from behind the arc in this series; Nickeil Alexander-Walker had a very rare efficient performance from deep in Game 2 that can’t be expected to repeat itself.

Reid’s struggles have almost been as protracted as those of his teammates on the bench. Despite his high volume, a consequence of his team’s lack of scoring options, especially with Rudy Gobert clogging the interior, dropping passes, and otherwise being so useless on offense, he hasn’t exceeded ten points in a game since he scored eleven in Game 2 of the previous round.

With guys like Cason Wallace, the Thunder defense is deep and is able to limit the supporting cast of Edwards and Randle. Minnesota’s players are clearly uncomfortable against a swarming Thunder defense that rotates well and applies various forms of effective pressure. A new game location won’t change this — as is commonly said, “defense travels.”

The Pick

When you review the scoring totals attained by the players thus far, you have to keep in mind that Games 1 and 2 took place in Oklahoma City.

Home teams are more easily able to establish their preferred style of play. In Minnesota, things are going to slow down. A slower tempo tonight will mean that both offenses will need to be ridiculously efficient in order for the “over” to hit.

Expecting the offenses to be efficient tonight is ridiculous, given OKC’s proven history of declining offensively on the road and given the toughness of the Thunder defense, which has the personnel to limit both Minnesota’s top scoring talent and its role players.

NBA Pick: Under 218 (-110) at Bet365 

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