The Oklahoma City Thunder have had three opportunities to make the NBA Finals. Tonight is attempt No. 1.
The Thunder currently lead the Timberwolves 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals and will be at home against the Timberwolves tonight as 8.5-point favorites.
The first two games at the Paycom Center were double-digit wins. The Timberwolves have not performed well on the road in this series. But with all hands on deck, you’d have to figure the Timberwolves will come out in tonight’s game and play with a purpose.
Let’s break down the odds and find the best value before placing our bets with the top-rated sportsbooks. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice.
Picks Summary:
- Timberwolves +8.5 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Rudy Gobert Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, May 28, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
Our AI Model believes the Thunder will win 113-106 over the Timberwolves tonight. That would be enough for the Thunder to move on. However, the Timberwolves are +8.5-point underdogs and would cover against the spread in this scenario.
Additionally, the total remains at 221, whereas our Model expects only 219 points. The Under is another highly valuable play in tonight’s game.
If you’re looking for a player prop, consider Rudy Gobert to add at least 16.5 points + rebounds + assists. Gobert is projected to earn 20.97 points + rebounds + assists using our AI Model. There’s a ton of value with the over at just -120 odds.
The Timberwolves Have Three Keys To The Game!
There are multiple keys to the game for the Timberwolves tonight.
First off, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle combined for 21 points in the Game 4 loss. The bench stepped up, but the stars didn’t. Edwards and Randle need to improve their performance. Minnesota can go nine deep and be fine. They’ve got the depth. However, the big star players need to step up when it matters the most.
Secondly, Minnesota needs to reduce its turnovers and improve its defensive rebounding. The Timberwolves gave up nine more turnovers and allowed the same number of offensive rebounds. That can’t happen if Minnesota wants to win this game.
Lastly, Minnesota has to get to the foul line at a consistent pace. They’ve done well with this all playoffs long and will need to find ways to the foul line as much as possible. The Thunder foul a lot. Minnesota needs to take advantage.
Don’t Underestimate Minnesota!
The Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the playoffs. However, the Timberwolves aren’t far behind. Minnesota ranks third in the NBA in points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. They’ve also limited playoff teams to a 52.5% effective field goal percentage with nearly 16% of turnovers.
Minnesota is almost as good as the Thunder defensively. It’s why all but one game in this series has had one team score no more than 103 points. Game 4 was an outlier. This game should be more of a defensive battle between two elite defenses.
Additionally, the Timberwolves will likely slow the game down to minimize turnovers and dominate the rebounding. With all hands on deck, Minnesota will give it its all on the defensive end. The under makes the most sense.
Rudy Gobert Deserves Credit
Rudy Gobert doesn’t get enough credit. Sure, he’s won the Defensive Player of the Year before. But he’s always on winning teams, making winning plays, in big moments.
In Game 4, when Edwards and Randle struggled, Gobert stepped up. He added 25 points + rebounds + assists in the loss and played over 32 minutes. His usage was the highest it had been in any of the games of this series, and he actually had three potential assists with 19 potential rebounds in the loss.
Additionally, he made five field goals on eight attempts and shot 63% from the field. He also saw the foul line multiple times and drained three foul shots on six attempts as well. Gobert was an absolute animal on the offensive glass, and that should continue in this game and throughout the series against the Thunder. Oklahoma City has struggled on the defensive glass in the playoffs, and Gobert has taken advantage.
The Picks
Consider Gobert to add at least 17 points + rebounds + assists in tonight’s Game 5 matchup.
- Timberwolves +8.5 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Rudy Gobert Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
