WNBA Best Bets for June 18: Phoenix Is In Domination Mode

Connecticut’s Key Changes

As measured by defensive rating, the Sun had the top-ranked defense last year, so it might feel befuddling to observe that they currently have the last-ranked defense. But you have to keep in mind that this team lost its head coach and all five of its starters from last year.

Their new head coach, Rachid Meziane, comes from Europe, where he cemented a completely different style of basketball than the physical one that Connecticut has been known for.

This physicality is still evident in the Sun, as apparent in its heated game against Indiana that featured technical fouls, although their head coach has spoken about valuing other traits than physicality. This persistent physicality reflects the difficulty that a team finds in adjusting to a new head coach who comes from Europe, because WNBA teams need to be physical, which isn’t so much the case with teams in Europe.

The point here is that Connecticut’s head coach has to make major adjustments in order to orient himself in the characteristically physical WNBA setting. The Sun used to be good about imposing their physicality on other teams, but they don’t have the coaching to do so, and their new players under their current head coach aren’t succeeding.

Connecticut’s Key Losses

One of their key losses was DiJonai Carrington, who has been regarded as one of the WNBA’s best perimeter defenders, if not the very best, as evident in her success last year on defense against Caitlin Clark’s Indiana squad. This was just one loss, yet it is hard to recover from losing such an important defender.

Alyssa Thomas was also a player whose loss creates massive consequences. Thomas is an eminently versatile player who can effectively guard one-through-five. In terms of rim protection, Brionna Jones was a crucial loss. Jones was someone who, for the Sun, asserted her presence around the rim. This presence extended to her solid rebounding.

While having a head coach who has valued physicality less obviously doesn’t help, losing players like Jones makes the Sun less able to impose their physicality on other teams.

Connecticut’s Defense by the Numbers

Overall, by a clear margin, Connecticut ranks dead-last in defensive rating.

The Sun allow the fourth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, but they also allow the highest field goal percentage in the next spatial range — that is, five-to-nine feet from the basket — and they allow the second-highest three-point conversion rate. They easily have one of the three worst perimeter defenses.

Opposing offenses are able to attain tremendous point totals by thriving inside the arc. For example:

• On May 18, Washington scored 90 points against the Sun while making all of five three-pointers.
• On June 8, the Mystics only made six three-pointers in their game against the Sun, yet they still amassed 104 points because they dominated the interior.

Teams also use their success from behind the arc to score a lot against Connecticut. Most recently, Indiana scored 88 points in its 17-point win over the Sun. The Fever weren’t even that amazing from behind the arc. They made eleven threes and converted just over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.

Phoenix’s Versatile Offense

On offense, Phoenix has what it takes to score well over 90 points against the Sun because it has both solid inside scorers and excellent three-point shooters.

The Mercury have used their well-rounded offense to score as many as 93 or 94 points in a game — they scored 93 against Dallas and 94 against Chicago. A team that commonly scores well over points, it can easily attain a season-high in points against what will be the easiest defensive test that it will have encountered this year.

Overall, Phoenix makes the third-most three-pointers per game. For their three-point shooting, the Mercury rely in particular on Kitija Laksa and Monique Akoa Makani. Both players convert well over 40 percent of their three-point attempts. Their inside scoring talent includes two-time WNBA All-Star Satou Sabally and five-time WNBA All-Star Alyssa Thomas.

Both players are excellent inside scorers who ably make use of their size and strength. By always posing a threat inside the arc, they help render defenses unable to devote too much attention to their team’s dangerous three-point shooters.

Phoenix’s Interior Defense

The Mercury defense is at its best when it faces a rather one-dimensional offense that primarily wants to score inside. They allowed a season-low 59 points to a Seattle team that attempts the second-fewest three-pointers. Likewise, they limited a Washington team that averages the fewest three-point attempts per game to 62 points.

Phoenix’s best games come against teams that rely rather heavily on scoring inside. With effective perimeter defenders like Thomas and good length and size from the likes of Sabally inside, the Mercury make it difficult for teams that can’t shoot to attack them inside and to score near the basket.

Connecticut attempts the third-fewest three-point attempts and anyhow lacks dangerous three-point shooters. The Sun have failed to reach 65 points multiple times this year and face one of the best defenses overall, as evident in defensive rating, and a defense that is uniquely well-equipped to punish their one-dimensionality.

Takeaway

Phoenix is going to exceed 90 points, whereas Connecticut will fail to reach 70 points.

The Mercury have great balance on offense that a putrid defense like Connecticut’s will fail to account for. On defense, the Mercury will punish the Sun offense for relying on scoring inside.

WNBA Pick: Mercury -13.5 (-114) at Bet365

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