There are two WNBA games tonight, and they are both worth betting on.
The spread available at the WNBA odds boards for each game might seem to suggest that neither contest will be close, but both underdogs have a tremendous outlook.Â
The Picks
- Valkyries +8.5 (-114)Â
- Sun +19 (-114)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
New York’s Perimeter Defense
Oddsmakers favor the Liberty, despite them being on the road in this game, because broadly speaking, they have been the better team all season.
However, oddsmakers do not account for matchup-specific details, which justify the expectation that Golden State will appear to be the better team in tonight’s specific matchup. These matchup details articulate the factors that allowed Golden State to stay within five points of New York when they last played each other. That game took place less than a month ago, and it was even in New York.
The crucial point is that the Liberty’s perimeter defense is profoundly vulnerable. New York allows the fourth-most three-point attempts per game. Moreover, it does a poor job of limiting the efficiency of opposing three-point attempts.
These stats indicate that the Liberty cannot be counted on to run opposing shooters off the three-point line and to effectively contest their shots. Hence, New York’s perimeter defense has played a significant role in its worst losses this year. Less than two weeks ago, for example, the Liberty conceded 102 points to Indiana in a 14-point loss where the Fever made 17 of their 35 three-point shots.
Why This Matters
It is crucial to know how vulnerable New York’s perimeter defense is because Golden State relies heavily on attempting three-pointers. The Valkyries attempt the second-most three-pointers per game.
Their ongoing two-game win streak has been buoyed by their three-point shooting, as evident in their eleven-point win over Indiana.
Tiffany Hayes, for example, continues to prove that she is dangerous from deep. Kayla Thornton is another example of a dangerous weapon for a Golden State team that, before its ongoing two-game win streak where it is scoring upwards of 90 points, had been known strictly for its defensive stoutness with its fourth-best defensive rating. Thornton is potent behind the arc, where she made five threes against Indiana, for example. She is also a good inside scorer.
With the likes of Thornton, Golden State won’t rely strictly on three-pointers, but its dangerousness from deep positions is very positive against the Liberty and the latter team’s vulnerable perimeter defense.
Form and Injuries
New York’s defense has looked bad, especially lately, which makes the underdog for this game all the more appealing given Golden State’s surging, clearly improved offensive play.
The Liberty enters tonight’s contest having lost three of their last four games. They have surrendered over 80 points in each of their last four games. In their three losses, they conceded 102 points to Indiana, and, most recently, 89 to Phoenix and 89 to Seattle.
They are hampered by the loss of key interior defender Jonquel Jones, who provides great size and strength inside, in addition to displaying her versatility as an effective perimeter defender.
Without Jones, the Valkyries will thrive all the more efficiently inside to complement their perimeter activity. Along with their already well-reputed defense that won’t have to deal with New York’s third-leading scorer Jones, the Valkyries’ scoring tonight will make it very easy for them to cover the big number.
WNBA Pick: Valkyries +8.5 (-114) at Bet365
Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena
Let-Down Spot for Las Vegas
The Aces are coming off a strong win against Indiana. They are worth fading tonight because they always struggle after a good outing. All year, they have failed to be consistent. This is why they remain a game below .500.
We get unique value in the Sun tonight because the Aces are favored as a result of their strong reputation entering this season and as a result of their entire season, accounting also for their wins. Since they reliably decline after a win, which means that they can’t be expected to play tonight like they do in their wins, the Sun have great betting value and make for an excellent underdog.
After a win, the Aces beat the lowly Mystics at home by three points, lost at Seattle by 20, won at Seattle by five, lost at Golden State by 27, and lost to Phoenix by six. In all of those games, they failed to exceed 75 points,
Connecticut’s Improved Scoring
The Sun have scored over 70 points in three of their last four games. It is even worth noting that they’ve scored at least 63 points in each of their last seven games. They will still cover the spread with ease if they just score 60 points.
But they can be counted on scoring over 70 points tonight because, with the likes of center Tina Charles, and her solid inside scoring as well as her ability to draw fouls, they match up well against the Aces’ defense.
The Aces are arguably the worst team at defending the area nearest the basket, which creates an excellent outlook for someone like Charles, in addition to her other teammates, who can exploit Vegas’ season-long tendency to allow the most efficient scoring within five feet of the basket.
Moreover, they are bad at defending Connecticut’s favorite spaces. For example, the Sun love almost more than any other team to attempt shots 10-14 feet from the basket. They match up well on offense against a Vegas defense that allows the second-most field goal makes per game in this space.
Connecticut easily has the offensive ability to cover the spread tonight.
WNBA Pick: Sun +19 (-114) at Bet365
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