Renegade has long been the betting favorite to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby, but a prominent trend has sports bettors thinking twice about backing the fast-running colt. It’s a curse that hasn’t been broken for 40 years, dating back to 1986.
It has everything to do with positioning. Post 1 is the innermost lane at Churchill Downs, and with the field compressing toward the inside almost immediately out of the gate, horses in this slot must quickly make a move to avoid being swallowed up by heavy traffic.
Renegade fits the bill of horses that can overcome such a challenge, but he’s at a disadvantage nonetheless. Is it a big enough factor to warrant changing your bet entirely? Let’s take a look at the history of the curse, the latest Kentucky Derby odds, and other horses worth a bet at the best offshore sportsbooks.
The Post 1 Curse at the Kentucky Derby
Post 1 is famously one of the least favorable positions to start from at the Kentucky Derby. While the horse in the inside lane theoretically has the least ground to cover (and, thus, the shortest race to run), it doesn’t always work out that way.
As soon as the horses break from the gates at Churchill Downs, the field shifts toward the inside of the track. If the horse in Post 1 doesn’t emerge fast enough, it risks getting blocked, squeezed against the rail, or being forced to navigate significant traffic – especially in a crowded field.
Getting off to a strong start and winning from Post 1 is such a rare feat that it hasn’t been accomplished since 1986, when Ferdinand won the Derby with a time of 2:02.80. It’s not like it was all that common before Ferdinand did it, either – since the starting gate was introduced in 1930, Post 1 has produced a winner just eight times.
That’s not to say Post 1 horses always fail spectacularly. Lookin’ At Lee finished second in 2017. Hit Show, which was a 30-1 longshot in 2023, came in fifth. Mo Donegal did the same at 10-1 odds in 2022. Often, though, these horses end up being non-factors in the grand scheme of things.
Recent Post 1 Results
To say that drawing Post 1 is a death sentence is an exaggeration. Yes, the position rarely produces a winner, but it’s not like every horse that gets the spot is a top contender. Just look at the odds on the last 10 horses to start from Post 1:
- 2025: Citizen Bull finishes 15th at 20-1 odds
- 2024: Dornoch finishes 10th at 20-1 odds
- 2023: Hit Show finishes 5th at 30-1 odds
- 2022: Mo Donegal finishes 5th at 10-1 odds
- 2021: Known Agenda finishes 8th at 6-1 odds
- 2020: Finnick the Fierce scratched at 50-1 odds
- 2019: War of Will finishes 7th at 20-1 odds
- 2018: Firenze Fire finishes 11th at 50-1 odds
- 2017: Lookin’ At Lee finishes 2nd at 20-1 odds
- 2016: Trojan Nation finishes 16th at 50-1 odds
Except for Known Agenda in 2021, none of these horses were among the top three favorites to win their respective Derbies. That begs the question: Should a 50-1 longshot count toward the curse the same as a 6-1 contender?
2026 Kentucky Derby Odds Snapshot
Whether you’re put off by betting Renegade or not, it’s worth taking the full picture into account. These Kentucky Derby odds are current as of Tuesday, April 28, at BetOnline.
- Renegade (+500)
- Further Ado (+550)
- Commandment (+600)
- Chief Wallabee (+700)
- The Puma (+900)
- Emerging Market (+1200)
- Danon Bourbon (+1300)
- So Happy (+1400)
- Silent Tactic (+1800)
- Fulleffort (+1800)
- Litmus Test (+2000)
- Potente (+2000)
- Intrepido (+2500)
- Golden Tempo (+2800)
- Incredibolt (+3000)
- Wonder Dean (+3500)
- Pavlovian (+4500)
- Six Speed (+7000)
- Albus (+7500)
- Right to Party (+7500)
Renegade (+500) is the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, but his margin has gotten slimmer since the post position draw. Further Ado (+550) and Commandment (+600) are right there, and Chief Wallabee isn’t far behind at +700. Bettors are beginning to move away from the leader.
Other Horses to Bet at the Kentucky Derby
If you’re hesitant to back Renegade, you still have other options worth exploring.
Further Ado drew Post 18 (which admittedly has an even worse win rate than Post 1 at just 5.3 percent), but he posted a significantly higher speed figure than Renegade in his most recent race.
Commandment will start Post 6, which produces the winner 2.1 percent of the time and last had a champion in 1993. Chief Wallabee was also “cursed” by Post 12, which hasn’t had a winner since 1971 and has a win rate of 3.7 percent.
The most favorable post positions are Post 5 (10.4 percent, drawn by Right to Party), Post 10 (10.1 percent, drawn by Wonder Dean), and Post 20 (10.5 percent, drawn by Fulleffort). Other notable draws include Post 15 (9.4 percent, Emerging Market) and Post 8 (9.5 percent, So Happy).
Responsible Gaming
Betting on sports should make race day more fun, not stress you out. Stick to responsible gaming habits by wagering only what you’d happily spend on a night out, and never reach for the credit card to keep a session alive. Feeling like the action is calling the shots? Reach out to the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential support.
Final Thoughts
Did Renegade get a bad draw? Absolutely. The numbers don’t lie. But Post 1 isn’t the only cursed starting position at Churchill Downs, and choosing not to bet on the favorite for one reason alone is irresponsible.
Any Kentucky Derby betting plan is well-researched and multi-faceted. Look for multiple factors pointing toward a specific batch of horses, not just one longstanding trend.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
