NFL Pick: 2023 AFC East Winner – Buffalo Bills (+120) at BetRivers
Once a division dominated by the New England Patriots, the AFC East has done a complete turnaround. Now it is the Patriots who lack a franchise quarterback and are looking up to the other three teams, all of which have playoff expectations for 2023.
The Landscape
Here are the current NFL odds from BetRivers for the winner of the AFC East in the 2023-24 NFL season:
- Buffalo Bills (+120)
- New York Jets (+250)
- Miami Dolphins (+300)
- New England Patriots (+900)
The Bills are attempting to win the division for the 4th season in a row, something they have not done since 1988-91. But they have some stiff competition from the Jets, who acquired Aaron Rodgers, and the Dolphins also played the Bills very tough in every matchup last season.
This could be the best division race in the NFL this season as no other division has odds this close among the top three contenders. With the schedules these teams will play, they also could have a significant impact in shaping this 2023 season’s narrative on everything from the MVP award to the Super Bowl winner.
But which team is the best bet to win the AFC East?
Buffalo Bills: Can They Circle the Wagons?
The last we saw the Buffalo Bills, they were badly outplayed at home in a 27-10 playoff loss to the Bengals in the divisional round. It was a disappointing finish to an emotional season that was filled with so much hope and high expectations as the Bills were favored to win the Super Bowl for most of the year.
Instead, they came up shorter than the previous two years despite finishing No. 2 in points scored and points allowed. But while many are writing off the Bills, they still have the best odds to win the AFC East for the 4th year in a row.
How hard is that to do? The Bills can become the 10th team since division realignment in 2002 to win a division at least 4 seasons in a row. The good news is that of the 13 teams to win a division at least 3 times, 9 of 13 (69.2%) did it a 4th season in a row too. That number is a tad misleading, because the 2002-04 Eagles did win their division four years in a row (2001-04), but we are only considering realignment in 2002 when the NFL switched to the 8 divisions we have now.
What happened to the Eagles in 2005? What usually happens: injuries and the rise of a rival. Quarterback Donovan McNabb was injured (sports hernia) and star wideout Terrell Owens literally quit on the team.
Hopefully, Josh Allen stays healthy after a scare to his elbow against the Jets last season. Stefon Diggs is still his No. 1 receiver, and while the star may be outspoken at times, he should show up this season and continue one of the best connections in the league. The Bills also drafted the best receiving tight end in the first round in Dalton Kincaid, though it is difficult for rookie tight ends to have a big impact.
Underrated Contenders
It is understandable why people are overlooking the Bills for the flashier potential of the Jets and Dolphins, but this is still a very strong football team. Based on his play since 2020, Allen is a top-tier quarterback and should be the No. 1 choice in the NFL on a quarterback who can go into Kansas City and outduel Patrick Mahomes right now. He should have upgrades at running back and tight end this year, and maybe Ken Dorsey gets better in his 2nd season at offensive coordinator.
The defense also should be healthier after losing multiple safeties early last year, which is how Damar Hamlin got on the field so much in the first place. The Bills are so deep at safety now that Hamlin may not see many snaps in 2023 with Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Taylor Rapp there.
Defensive Boost Needed
But the big one is getting Von Miller back to be that pivotal edge rusher in big games. He had 8 sacks in 11 games before tearing his ACL last Thanksgiving. Corner Tre’Davious White also tore his ACL on Thanksgiving in 2021, and he only played 6 games in 2022. Hopefully, the Bills can get two elite defenders on the field for more games this year and to be there in the end when they have to get a key stop against Mahomes or Joe Burrow.
The Bills are still one of the best teams in the NFL, but they just may not be a favorite to win it all like they were last year when they came up short.
New York Jets: How Good Can It Be Right Away?
There is no doubt Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, but he joins the Jets after the toughest season of his career, and he will turn 40 years old in December.
But expectations are still very high for a team that has not made the playoffs since the 2010 season. Expectations are also high for Rodgers in a league where Joe Montana (Chiefs), Brett Favre (Vikings), Peyton Manning (Broncos), and Tom Brady (Buccaneers) all switched teams late in their career, and they all went to a Conference Championship Game or Super Bowl in their first or second season there.
The success was almost instant, and Rodgers may have some advantages those others did not. He will reunite with Nathaniel Hackett, his offensive coordinator in Green Bay when he was MVP in 2020-21. He will also be coming with wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and neither has to be a No. 1 because the Jets have Garrett Wilson, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Jets also could have a strong run game if Breece Hall returns and looks like he did in his rookie year.
But the exciting part could be Rodgers with a legitimate defense, led by 2nd-year corner Sauce Gardner, last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year as the Jets nailed their draft. Giving Rodgers potentially his best defense since 2010, which was his only Super Bowl season, you have a team that has a chance to be balanced, complete, and elite on both sides of the ball.
A Challenging Start
That is the optimistic view of the 2023 Jets. The reality is the NFL did them no favors with the schedule because Rodgers is going to have to be sharp immediately with this lineup: Bills, Cowboys (Week 2), Patriots (Week 3), Chiefs (Week 4), Broncos (Week 5), and Eagles (Week 6) all before the Week 7 bye.
The Jets are not going winless here, but that is a brutal opening slate for a team that might need time to gel. Remember, Manning’s Broncos started 2-3 in 2012 with a brutal schedule before going on their run to claim the top seed. Even Brady’s 2020 Buccaneers were sitting at 7-5 before figuring things out in time.
A slow start for the Jets, especially if it includes a Week 1 loss to Buffalo, could be the reason this team comes up short of a division title. But the schedule eases up after the bye, so this team may still enter the playoffs hot and playing their best ball at the right time.
That is going to be more important to Rodgers than a division title, as he won his only Super Bowl on a wild card team. The Jets also went to back-to-back AFC Championship Games in 2009-10 despite not winning the AFC East in either season.
Miami Dolphins: Searching for Consistency
The Dolphins had a good playoff season in 2022 under rookie coach Mike McDaniel, but it could have been great if not for the multiple concussions suffered by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Hopefully, those incidents leading to a league-wide change in protocol will help teams going forward, because Tagovailoa should not have been rushed back to the field to face the Bengals in Week 4 after suffering what looked like a concussion on Sunday in Week 3. Finally, a concussion on Christmas against Green Bay ended Tua’s season and the Dolphins had to scramble with rookie third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson, who started the wild-card playoff loss in Buffalo.
Ups and Downs
Miami was incredibly up and down last season. The Dolphins won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row, won 5 in a row, and lost 5 in a row before beating the Jets in an ugly 11-6 game in Week 18, then losing that wild 34-31 playoff game in Buffalo.
Some of the early inconsistency was with the concussions taking Tua out of action, but he also lost his last 4 starts of the season and was struggling. But pairing Tyreek Hill with Jaylen Waddle was a smashing success as their speed is unmatched at the position. Hill had one of the best debut seasons ever with a new team with 1,710 receiving yards.
Those receivers and McDaniel’s system helped Tua to his best season by far, and he even led the NFL in several passing efficiency categories. But he will have to prove he can stay upright and last a full season.
Defensive Overhaul and a Star-Studded Roster
Miami was not good on defense and made a smart move at defensive coordinator by hiring veteran Vic Fangio, who rarely gets bad results on that side of the ball. He will welcome Jalen Ramsey into the secondary to join forces with Xavien Howard, giving Miami one of the best cornerback duos to go with maybe the best wide receiver duos.
Miami also has a full offseason to work pass rusher Bradley Chubb into the defense better after acquiring him in a mid-season trade last year. Chubb played for Fangio in Denver, so there is familiarity there.
While McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, the Dolphins kind of better resembles Sean McVay and the Rams with their approach to stacking elite, proven talent in bringing in Hill, Chubb, and Ramsey the last two years. The roster has more of that “stars and scrubs” look to it where an injury to one of these players could expose a lack of depth.
But the Dolphins should finally have big expectations and be fun to watch, which is something you could almost never say for the last 20 years.
New England Patriots: The Shine Is Gone
Since 2020, the Patriots are a perfectly mediocre 25-25 in the regular season. You have to go back to 2000, Bill Belichick’s first year as head coach, to find the last time the Patriots finished last in the AFC East.
But it could happen this year if the team continues to struggle at quarterback with Mac Jones, who had a sophomore slump and nearly lost his job to Bailey Zappe at one point. It really did not help Jones in going from Josh McDaniels to Joe Judge at offensive coordinator, so at least things should be better on that front with Bill O’Brien returning to help run Belichick’s offense.
Skill Player Concerns
But the Patriots did not draft any interesting skill players, they did not woo DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver, settling for JuJu Smith-Schuster instead. The offense basically has a trio of No. 2 or No. 3 receivers and no true No. 1. DeVante Parker creates no separation, Kendrick Bourne is nothing special, and they need to figure out how to get more out of Hunter Henry at tight end after having no answers to using Jonnu Smith.
The defense added corner Christian Gonzalez after he slid in the first round. The defense should at least be respectable under Belichick, and the team will play with enough discipline to be in most games. Some really huge fumbles hurt the Patriots last year, including that ill-advised lateral at the end of the Las Vegas game that resulted in an unbelievable loss and 8-9 record instead of 9-8.
Things Don’t Look So Good for the Patriots
But unless Jones is going to make a huge leap forward in an offense with below-average talent, the Patriots are going to be underdogs most weeks when you consider the quarterback matchups. Can you count on Jones to outscore Jalen Hurts (Eagles in Week 1), Dak Prescott (Cowboys in Week 4), or even the home games with Justin Herbert (Chargers – Week 13) and Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs – Week 15) later in the year? Not to mention Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Aaron Rodgers in the division.
The reality is that after two decades of bliss, the Patriots are in quarterback purgatory, a tough place to be in a conference that has so many better solutions at quarterback than Mac Jones. It would be a big surprise if the Patriots had a winning record, let alone won the AFC East this year.
Conclusion: And the Division Winner Is…
On paper, the AFC East has three teams worthy of a division title this year thanks to quarterback play, top-notch receivers, and some elite defenders at multiple levels.
But Buffalo is still the best bet because of the trust factor. This team has been together for years with Josh Allen and Sean McDermott joining forces in 2018. The Bills have been in the playoffs for the last 4 years. After starting his career winless against the AFC East rivals, Allen is 9-1 against Miami in the last 10 meetings, 6-1 against the Jets in games he finishes since 2019, and he is 6-1 against Belichick’s Patriots since 2020.
The division has upgraded, and those games will be tougher, but the Bills get to face the Jets in Week 1 before Rodgers may be ready to play at a high level. Unlike the Jets, the Bills should get their tough games late in the season instead of the beginning, allowing them to get off to a good start. But even when the tough games come starting in Week 14 at Kansas City, the Bills have a bye in Week 13 to recuperate.
Do not overlook how emotionally draining last season was for Buffalo with a blizzard moving a game to Detroit, losing Miller on Thanksgiving, and of course the Damar Hamlin moment that shook everyone in January. This team had to welcome the long offseason, even if it came after such a bad loss to the Bengals.
The Pick
But the playoffs are a different beast and not relevant to this prediction. When it comes to just winning the AFC East, the Bills still look like the best bet.
If you wanted a good hedge, consider taking Aaron Rodgers to win MVP (+1200 at BetRivers) or Tua Tagovailoa to win Comeback Player of the Year (+2000 at Unibet). If those teams end Buffalo’s reign, it will almost certainly be due to a stellar year from their quarterbacks.
Imagine that – the AFC East being a quarterback haven for everyone but the Patriots.
NFL Pick: 2023 AFC East Winner – Buffalo Bills (+120) at BetRivers
