When it comes to sports in general, it’s no secret that favorites usually win – that’s why they’re the favorites. But that’s straight-up; introduce the point spread, and historically, it’s the underdogs on the NFL odds board with a slight lead at 52.08% (as per Wizard of Odds). Not quite the 52.38% you need to break even at –110 vigorish, but pretty darn close.
Everything’s upside-down in 2025. The favorites are 87-74-3 ATS (54.0%) heading into Week 12, and the sharps are following suit with their Thursday Night Football bets. Should we join them?
Best Bets for Buffalo vs. Houston
It might look like a mismatch on paper: the 7-3 Bills (5-5 ATS) taking on the 5-5 Texans (4-6 ATS), with back-up QB Davis Mills handling the rock for Houston.
Then again, Buffalo has had their ups and downs, especially on defense, where it ranks No. 25 overall at plus-0.08 Expected Points Added per play (as per nfelo). Maybe the Texans belong in our NFL betting picks instead with their top-ranked defense (minus-0.17 EPA per play).
Thursday Night Odds (HOU +5.5)
Indeed, the betting market respects Houston enough to keep them within a touchdown on the NFL spreads – although the Texans have moved from +4 at the open, thanks to what our sources tell us is both sharp money and big bets on the Bills.
There’s less action on the moneyline for Thursday’s matchup despite Houston moving from +170 to +210, but things pick up again with the total; the wiseguys are dumping big bucks on the Under, driving the total down from 44.5 at the open to as low as 43.5 at press time.
Thursday Night Pick: BUF –250
The sharps may have been correct to pounce on Buffalo at –4, but at –5.5, they only show plus-1.1% of expected value according to the NFL predictions. That’s with the Bills projected to win 25-18. We get a boost to plus-2.2% EV if we take Buffalo –250 on the moneyline instead.
Neither side of the total looks particularly tasty at this price, so if we’re going to build a classic same-game parlay for Thursday’s NFL picks, the favorite and the Over aren’t going to contribute much – it’s all about disguising the sharpness of your adjacent props. Speaking of which:
Bills’ Josh Allen (Anytime TD Scorer –120)
Casual fans want to see their heroes score touchdowns, and it just so happens that several Bills are projected to cash in their NFL player props with plenty of EV to spare:
- QB Josh Allen has one of Buffalo’s biggest anytime TD edges at plus-6.7%
- RB James Cook (–115) at plus-4.0%
- No. 1 WR Keon Coleman (+370) at plus-7.8%
Put them all in your SGP for maximum Bills camouflage – or bet them separately at a more sharp-friendly sportsbook, tailoring your bet sizes to match those projected edges.
Bet on Thursday Night Football Now!
Houston’s defense may be mighty overall, but it falls to a more manageable ninth overall against the run (minus-0.06 EPA per play), so we’re extra-keen on those Allen and Cook touchdown props for our Thursday Night Football bets.
You’ll find other edges for Buffalo in the rushing department; keep a close eye on the Week 12 NFL lines, and consider getting those wagers in early before the Bills Mafia floods the marketplace. As always, timing is everything when you’re betting on sports at any reputable sportsbook.
Make Thursdays Better With OddsTrader Turbo
We’ve used the freely available projections at OddsTrader to craft our NFL picks, but you’ll have access to the full list once you subscribe to OddsTrader Turbo.
This state-of-the-art betting suite has all the tools of the trade, from stats and projections to synchronized betting across your chosen sportsbooks. Start your free 30-day trial today and let OddsTrader Turbo supercharge your football bets this Thursday night.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.