High-profile teams can look very good in early-season play when they compete against low-quality opponents. However, we can learn a lot about these high-profile teams when they encounter more difficult competition. Oregon, which is currently riding a three-game losing streak, is one team that we have learned a lot about.
For our College Basketball picks today, we definitely want to wager on its game against USC tonight. As I will explain, we should also be interested in Penn State’s game against Campbell.
Favorites Are Dominating Tonight
Tonight is a great night for favorites. Justifiably, Penn State is heavily favored against Campbell. If we are going to expect a heavy favorite to cover the spread, then we will need to have confidence in that favorite to attain a strong scoring output.
Penn State is a good favorite because, like last year under its same head coach and (oddly enough) similar to its former head football coach, it loves to beat up low-profile teams in non-conference play. The Nittany Lions regularly blow past 80 or even 90 points. Their defense also enjoys a strong matchup edge tonight.
As for Oregon, the Ducks are only small dogs because oddsmakers are slow to make adjustments. The odds fail to appreciate the significance of their recent losses, which were double-digit losses against the only legitimate competition that they’ve encountered thus far.
Campbell Camels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-13.5)
On defense, Penn State likes to keep its defenders positioned in the painted area. Off-ball defenders might also leave the perimeter area to lunge at opposing ball-handlers who attack the paint. The opposing offense will, consequently, often kick the ball out to the perimeter in order to attempt a rather open three-point attempt.
Penn State allows a lot of three-point attempts in general – the Nittany Lions rank 302nd at limiting opposing three-point attempts. But Campbell utterly lacks the ability to take advantage of opportunities behind the arc – Campbell ranks 350th in three-point percentage.
The Camels have a bad offense that misses shooting talent and is led by a point guard who has more turnovers than assists. They won’t score easily against Penn State, whereas Penn State has scored 90+ points in each of its last two games. The Nittany Lions have a balanced offense that avoids turnovers and is firing on all cylinders. They’ll exploit a Campbell defense that, after giving up 99 points in its last game against Wake Forest, ranks outside the top 200 in efficiency.
Expert Pick: Penn State -13.5 (-110) at Caesars
USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks (+1.5)
Oregon +1.5 in this matchup would have looked interesting to superficial observers after the team’s 4-0 start. But alarm bells should have gone off after the Ducks won their first two home games, against Hawaii and Rice, respectively, by a combined total of four points.
Now they have more explicitly been exposed: in their last three games, they lost by eleven to Auburn, by 17 to San Diego State, and most recently by ten to Creighton. In particular, their defense is putting them in impossible positions by allowing around 40 points by halftime. To make matters worse, key scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker Nate Bittle is listed as ‘very questionable’ for tonight’s game. Oregon cannot afford injuries, but it’s helpless to stop them.
USC, meanwhile, does not need Rodney Rice if he remains injured. The Trojans are undefeated after scoring over 80 points in their last two games against Seton Hall and Arizona State. They are displaying the shot-making that Oregon lacks, especially behind the arc, where the Ducks rank 262nd in three-point percentage.
The Ducks will be dependent on scoring inside, but the Trojans are statistically one of the best shot-blocking teams, thanks to rim protectors like Jacob Cofie, who is strong enough to handle post threats down low but is also impressively mobile in general. Tonight, only one team will score and play defense easily, and that team is USC.
Expert Pick: USC -1.5 (-110) at Caesars
Place Your Bets Now!
My favorite picks today include Penn State and USC with the fullest confidence, so if you like the value you see for today’s games, jump on it. The best bets don’t last forever. Join a sportsbook like Caesars and take advantage of their promotions and bonuses with our best bets.
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