The proof is in the shootaround.
Our NBA player props today include some of the biggest names in the sport, and some monster betting edges according to the basketball projections at OddsTrader, but there’s one problem: We don’t know for sure who’s going to suit up.
You might want to wait for the morning shootaround before unloading on these basketball props, at least for the first of the two NBA Cup quarterfinals we’ve got on our radar screen this Wednesday.
Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama (Over 9.5 Rebounds +110)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers – December 10, 10:00 PM ET
If you’re going to bet early and try to retain some of that betting value, it’s relatively safe to bet on Victor Wembanyama (12.9 rebounds per game) in what could be his return to active duty.
Wembanyama has missed the last 11 games for San Antonio (16-7 SU, 12-10-1 ATS) with a sprained left calf; he traveled with the team to L.A., and there’s a very good chance he’ll suit up against the Lakers (17-6 SU, 15-8 ATS).
You’ll presumably get your money back if you bet the Wembanyama props and he doesn’t play –check the rules at your chosen online sportsbook(s) to make sure– so the main concern is what kind of minutes restriction he might be on. That information alone is worth waiting until Wednesday for.
Otherwise, at these odds, you’re getting a ridiculous 21.6% Expected Value for this wager on a projected 11.979 rebounds for Wembanyama.
Wednesday’s total has some baked-in assumptions about Wemby’s minutes and his ring rust; so do the OddsTrader projections, but they might be more optimistic about his ability to perform. We know the Lakers are just below league-average in pace at 101.5 possessions per game (No. 19 overall), and particularly stingy on the boards at 39.6 allowed per game (No. 2).
Temper your enthusiasm and your bet size accordingly.
Spurs’ Stephon Castle (To Record 10+ Assists +900)
Stephon Castle (7.4 assists per game) has progressed very nicely since winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2024-25, and he’s already got one game under his belt after coming off the injured list this past Monday, playing relatively modest in San Antonio’s 135-132 win over the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Spurs have played a bit more quickly while Wembanyama’s been out, but Castle will presumably find it easier to cash in with Wemby in uniform; the OT projections say it will happen 31% of the time, giving us 21.0% EV on a +900 payout.
Suns’ Mark Williams (Over 9.5 Points –125)
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – December 10, 07:30 PM ET
We need to tread lightly with our other NBA Cup quarterfinal, but in this case, Mark Williams (13.2 points per game) isn’t the issue – it’s Devin Booker (groin) and Jalen Green (hamstring).
Both could end up playing for the Suns (14-10 SU, 15-8-1 ATS) this Wednesday, or either, or neither. That will naturally have some impact on how many points we can expect from Williams. Maybe just a little, though.
Williams will probably start at center regardless, as he did in each of his past 17 appearances for his new club. The bigger concern might be the Thunder (23-1 SU, 13-11 ATS) and their super-sized frontcourt, although Isaiah Hartenstein (ankle) isn’t expected to play for OKC.
Maybe that’s why we’re getting 14.9% EV on a projected 13.332 points for Williams.
Your NBA Player Prop Playbook
With only two games to choose from, our NBA player props today are going to be smaller in number than usual; however, these are both NBA Cup games, and they’ll be on Prime Video, so we should see an influx of public bettors.
That Spurs-Lakers matchup might be especially juicy once the shootaround takes place and we have a better idea who’s playing. Take advantage by signing up for as many of our high-rated sportsbooks as you see fit, so you can get the most favorable odds for your chosen props here at OddsTrader.
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