Today’s NBA slate features a large number of games to choose from, so we can be selective for our best NBA player props today.
The two games that interest me are Magic vs. Knicks and Warriors vs. Spurs. Let’s take a look at the best value today, based on location, situational logic, and matchup details.
Knicks’ Josh Hart (Over 8.5 Points -105) at BetMGM
Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks – 7:00 PM ET
We should look to invest in Knicks players tonight for two reasons:
- Their offense has been on fire. They enter tonight’s game having scored over 130 points in each of their last three games.
- They host a Magic team whose defense allows 119.8 points per road game. If this were an overall statistic, its defense would rank in the bottom ten.
Josh Hart, in particular, is a good player to invest in. Relative to last month, he has seen an uptick in minutes and shot attempts, making it easier for him to score more points. His shooting has also been more efficient. Relevant to tonight’s game, he has proven fantastic at improving his shooting efficiency relative to his previous game.
His outlook is great against an Orlando defense whose general struggles include struggles against guards. In their last road game, for example, they allowed Atlanta’s guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels to score 20 and 18 points, respectively.
Magic’s Jalen Suggs (Under 11.5 Points -115) at BetMGM
Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks – 7:00 PM ET
For Orlando, Jalen Suggs has a negative outlook tonight because he is a point guard, and point guards are struggling regularly against New York’s defense. Most recently, Ja Morant converted 28.6 percent of his field goal attempts against the Knicks. Likewise, CJ McCollum scored five points against them.
In New York’s last four games, the only opposing point guard to flourish was Donte DiVincenzo, who attempted eleven threes and happened to be efficient from behind the arc, making five of them. Suggs, however, is not the type of player that DiVincenzo is. Suggs has made a combined total of only six three-pointers in his last two games while achieving a highly unusual 60 percent three-point conversion rate. Like Morant and McCollum, Suggs will be confined to attempting two-pointers and will therefore fail to score enough points.
Warriors’ Moses Moody (Over 8.5 Points -118) at BetMGM
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 PM ET
Relative to last month, Golden State’s Moses Moody is seeing an uptick in minutes and shot attempts, which is facilitating his endeavor to score more points. His three-point efficiency remains solidly over 40%, which represents a solid but not unbelievable or unsustainable improvement relative to his previous seasons. The former first-round draft pick, in other words, is finally looking like a former first-round pick.
Moody’s three-point efficiency is important to note because his scoring success in a given game relies on his three-point shooting. When he is efficient from deep and makes multiple threes, he reliably attains a double-digit point total, as he did in each of his last two games. Moody’s scoring totals are predictable simply because we know in advance which team he’s facing. He scored a combined total of nine points against two teams that rank top-three at limiting opposing three-point makes. Conversely, he scored 28 points, with six made threes, against Sacramento’s 16th-ranked perimeter defense. San Antonio’s perimeter defense ranks 17th.
Place Your Basketball Bets Today
My favorite NBA player props today are Josh Hart over 8.5 points, Jalen Suggs under 11.5 points, and Moses Moody over 8.5 points.
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