Yes, football fans, there is a Week 16. And it’s got one game on the schedule: the Army-Navy Game. That’s all we’ve got for Saturday’s college football bets, but if the NCAAF projections here at OddsTrader are correct, there’s a juicy player prop waiting for us – so let’s get right to it.
Best Bets for Army vs. Navy
These two branches of the U.S. Armed Forces have been going at it since 1890, and it’s not just bragging rights they’re fighting over. Saturday’s matchup between the Army Black Knights (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) and Navy Midshipmen (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS) is the third and final leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Series, which also includes the Air Force Falcons.
It’s been a highly competitive series in recent years; Army and Navy each beat Air Force this year by a field goal, so we’re expecting some suitably tight lines on Saturday’s NCAAF odds board.
Saturday Odds (Navy -6, -113)
Looks like the oddsmakers did indeed nail this point spread. The NCAAF projections at OddsTrader have Navy prevailing 24-18 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, which is technically closer to the Naval Academy at Annapolis – but essentially a neutral field, with large blocks of tickets assigned to cadets from both branches.
Navy has been the better team this year, enough that the sharps are reportedly taking Navy to beat the spread despite pouring big bucks on Under 39. Speaking of pouring, there’s a 15% chance of rain for Saturday’s matchup, with temperatures around 40 degrees for this 3 PM Eastern start. This is after what could be a snowy Friday in Baltimore.
Saturday Picks (Over 38.5 -110)
It may be a tight spread, but that projected score adds up to 42 points, which gives us our only plus-EV choice for Saturday’s college football picks at 2.1% Expected Value.
As always, don’t take that EV number as gospel, and definitely don’t plug it directly into a Kelly betting calculator to see what your bet size should be. Instead, treat this as a sign that the computers have picked up something in the data for this matchup. If we were already going to put the Over in our plausibly recreational same-game parlay, now we have some support.
Army’s Cale Hellums (Over 64.5 Passing Yards -114)
This is why you might want to put said parlay together. NCAAF player props are highly volatile, as you should expect with any “exotic” bet; however, Hellums’ prop looks sneaky-good here for a quarterback in a flexbone offense – with more projected value (23.3% EV) than Navy gets from QB Blake Horvath (3.9% EV) running a similar version of that triple-option.
Our warning for handling those EV numbers gets even louder now that they’ve reached double-digits. The computers are probably on the high side with their projection of 95.215 passing yards for Hellums, but he is facing the No. 94-ranked defense on the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys. Parlay this with Army +210 on the moneyline and the Over if you feel the need to disguise the sharpness of your Army-Navy props.
Place Your Saturday Night College Picks Now
It’s the only game in town, so the odds for all our recommended Saturday college football bets are likely to yo-yo between now and kick-off. Keep a close watch, as always, on the live NCAAF odds board here at OddsTrader, and use our comprehensive reviews to find the right sportsbooks for your betting needs. That way, you’ll have a wider selection of football lines to choose from when it’s time to place you wagers.
How big to make those wagers is the key. If it’s going to be more than $100, you’re starting to drift into “sharp” territory at those sportsbooks that prefer to limit sharp action. Signing up for multiple accounts at both recreational and sharp-friendly books will put you in the best position to succeed. Bet accordingly, and we’ll see you back on the gridiron for bowl season.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.