It’s Turkey Time again. We need to get cracking with our NFL picks Week 13, as this Thursday we have the traditional Thanksgiving Day triple-header, then we’ve got Black Friday football to deal with before Sunday’s abbreviated 11-game slate.
We don’t have all the usual football predictions at our fingertips as we go to press, but there’s no time to lose – let’s jump right in and see what’s on our dinner table for this week’s picks.
NFL Picks Week 13 At-a-Glance
Two of our best football bets for Week 13 involve Sunday games, so in theory, there’s plenty of time between now and then to confirm the validity of those picks. However, we’re also considering the favorite in both cases, so all these NFL lines are likely to move away from us if we wait too long before pouncing.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (DET –2.5)
We kick off with the first Turkey Day matchup, an NFC North battle between the Packers (7-3-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) and Lions (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) that could seriously compromise the playoff chances of the loser.
These football odds suggest it’s an even battle on paper, but Detroit has outperformed Green Bay according to the Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference:
- Green Bay: plus-2.7 SRS (No. 12 overall)
- Detroit: plus-6.3 SRS (No. 6)
The very early NFL projections do show betting edges for the Packers on a final score of 25-22 for Detroit, but updated advanced stats for Week 13 are pending at press time, so we’re a bit skeptical for now about Green Bay’s chances – especially after playing one of the softest schedules thus far.
Expert Pick: Detroit Lions -2.5 (-114) at Caesars
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns (CLE +6.5)
It turns out Shedeur Sanders isn’t a total disaster when given enough practice reps with the first team. But how comfortable would you be taking the Browns (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) after their 24-10 win over Las Vegas (–3.5 at home) in Week 12?
Sanders was 11-of-20 for just 209 passing yards with one touchdown, one interception, and minus-1 yards rushing on one attempt; the loss was so embarrassing for the Raiders, they fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly less than one year into his expensive tenure.
We’d be comfortable recommending San Francisco (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) instead.
They show slightly positive betting edges on a predicted score of 23-16 for the visitors, but never mind the spread or moneyline – throw a small wager at Under 40.5, for a projected edge of 2.2%. That’s what the sharps are reportedly doing, with high winds expected across much of the Rust Belt this Sunday.
Expert Pick: San Francisco 49ers -6 (-109) at Caesars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (TEN +6.5)
Those winds should reach the Southeastern U.S. as well, so Under 42.5 is looking very tasty indeed for our final recommendation.
We were somewhat tempted to suggest Jacksonville (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) here, given how incredibly bad Tennessee (1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS) is, but the Titans have covered three straight in the face of lowered public expectations.
The Under is the easy call given the predicted score of Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 16 – and we’re more confident here than we are with that Packers-Lions prediction.
Expert Pick: Jaguars/Titans Under 42 (-113) at Caesars
Place Your Week 13 NFL Bets Now!
We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again: Timing is everything when you’re making your NFL picks Week 13.
This time, the betting public at the reputable sportsbooks will flood the marketplace earlier than usual, so don’t delay, get your bets in today. The odds and even the projections you see here may have changed by the time you read this; download the free OddsTrader App to get the latest lines, and bet accordingly.
Talk Turkey With OddsTrader Turbo
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It’s part of our deluxe betting package for discerning football fans; you’ll get all the updated projections and stats as well, but numbers need context, which BetStation will happily provide. Sign up for your free 30-day trial at OddsTrader Turbo, and from everyone here, Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.