My favorite NBA player props today are point totals.
My process of gauging player form and assessing how players match up against specific teams yields clear insights in which I possess the fullest confidence.
There are a lot of games to choose from, so I get to be extra selective today. The three games that interest me for my best player props are Jazz vs. Pistons, 76ers vs. Cavaliers, and Wizards vs. Celtics.
Pistons’ Isaiah Stewart (Under 14.5 Points -125) at BetMGM
Utah Jazz vs. Detroit Pistons – 07:00 PM EDT
Detroit’s Isaiah Stewart is coming off a massive 26-point performance. But let’s avoid recency bias and cogitate rationally by asking how he normally follows up a big scoring output.
History says that he is due for a let-down tonight. For example, he scored 20 points on October 2. In his following game, he scored four points. He demonstrated this same sort of let-down tendency last year.
Even if he weren’t in let-down mode, the matchup for him is terrible. A center, he relies primarily on scoring at the basket. Utah’s defense dedicates itself to protecting the basket. The Jazz allow the fifth-fewest field goals made within five feet of the basket.
Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley (Over 19.5 Points -120) at BetMGM
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 07:00 PM EDT
Cleveland’s Evan Mobley is coming off an unusually inefficient performance in which he failed to convert 40 percent of his field goal attempts.
He was similarly inefficient in two other games. After the first such game, he converted 50 percent of his field goals on October 27. Likewise, he converted 64.7 percent of his field goal attempts on October 31 after the second such game.
So, don’t worry about his efficiency. But what about his volume? With Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen both banged-up – both listed as ‘questionable’ tonight – we can expect Mobley to play an unusually central role in his team’s offense.
Recently, the 76ers have been conceding a lot of points to centers. Nikola Vucevic scored 19 points against them despite an off-night from deep. Nic Claxton blew past his scoring average against them. They surrendered 31 points to Alex Sarr.
Now it’s Mobley’s turn.
Celtics’ Jaylen Brown (Over 24.5 Points (-120) at BetMGM
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics – 07:30 PM EDT
Boston’s Jaylen Brown is sizzling.
He has scored at least 30 points in three of his last four games. Despite failing to make a single three-pointer in nine attempts, he scored 36 points in his last game. He is converting 38 percent of his three-point attempts this season and is known to be an efficient three-point shooter in general.
That said, one has to expect him to improve significantly from behind the arc, giving him an additional strong source of scoring.
His outlook from behind the arc is excellent against a Washington defense that allows the fourth-highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts. So, in addition to thriving inside the arc, he’ll make a lot of threes tonight.
Ranking second-to-last in scoring defense, the Wizards consistently allow very high point totals. With Jayson Tatum sidelined, Boston depends a lot on Brown’s scoring. His form and matchup considerations justify the expectation that he will score at least 30 points tonight.
Place Your Best NBA Player Props & Have Multiple Sportsbook Options
I love the point total under for Isaiah Stewart and the point total over for both Evan Mobley and Jaylen Brown.
Be sure to take advantage of my favorite NBA player props today by signing up at a top sportsbook and placing three bets. Maximize your mathematical chance of winning by capturing the best number.
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