Sometimes things work out the way they should.
Both of our official Sunday Night Football bets cashed in last week, with the Los Angeles Chargers (–150) beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 25-10, and RB Kimani Vidal racking up 108 yards from scrimmage (Over 67.5). But two out of three was no good at all if you parlayed these bets with Over 44.5.
Can we avoid the same fate with our NFL betting picks for Week 11?
Best Bets for Detroit vs. Philadelphia
Much like we had for our Week 10 NFL betting picks, there’s a potential NFC Championship Game preview on tap between the Detroit Lions (6-3 SU and ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS).
The Lions are first in the NFC North; the Eagles lead the NFC East, and hold the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the entire conference. Without looking at the football odds, or even the advanced stats, you can guess that Philadelphia is going to be overvalued in this situation.
They’re the defending Super Bowl champs, playing in the larger market to the larger fan base; if the betting public thinks a bit too highly of the Eagles, we can take advantage by pounding the other side.
Sunday Night Odds (PHI –2.5)
As expected, the Week 11 NFL odds have the home team dancing around that 3-point spread – although Philly did open at –1.5.
That was enough to draw some early sharp action on the Eagles; the consensus reports show 72% support for the defending champs as we go to press.
The Eagles have also moved from –120 to as high as –155 on the moneyline, even while some bigger bets have landed on Detroit. Reports suggest sharper action landing on the Over now that the total has slipped from 49.5 to 46.5.
Sunday Night Picks (DET +130)
The betting market may consider these two teams evenly matched on neutral ground, but the advanced stats at nfelo tell another story.
They have Detroit ranked sixth overall in Expected Points Added at plus-0.15 per play; Philadelphia is down in 12th place at plus-0.05 EPA, just ahead of the aforementioned Chargers and Steelers.
Granted, the Eagles have played a tougher schedule than Detroit, and they shored up some of their defensive weaknesses by adding edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, CB Michael Carter II and CB Jaire Alexander at the trade deadline.
However, Alexander was put on the retirement list this past Wednesday, and Carter is a marginal improvement to Philly’s secondary. We’ll take the moneyline here, with the predicted score of Lions 25, Eagles 22 generating a projected edge of 6.4% at +130 odds.
Jared Goff (Over 236.5 Passing Yards –115)
There might not be all that much need to disguise the sharpness of your Lions moneyline bet by hiding it in a same-game parlay with some Lions props, but let’s go ahead and recommend the Over for the NFL player props on Detroit’s starting quarterback.
With the Eagles’ secondary still vulnerable, our chosen Jared Goff prop comes with a projected 5.1% edge; consider pairing this with RB Jahmyr Gibbs going Over 88.5 combined rushing and receiving yards, although we’re more skeptical about that projected 20.7% edge.
Place Your Sunday Night Football Picks Now
The Lions tick off just about every box for our Sunday Night Football bets: a team from a somewhat regional market taking on the overvalued Super Bowl champions from the big city.
Can we get a better price on Detroit if we wait closer to kick-off? Keep a close eye on the live NFL lines, and strike when the time is right.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.