We’ve only got two games to consider for our Saturday night football bets, but you could throw every team in the FBS onto the schedule, and we’d still be featuring this year’s Big Ten Football Championship Game.
It’s the top two teams in the nation, both undefeated for now, meeting in the “real” National Championship before we even get to bowl season. Let’s see which one belongs in our Week 15 NCAAF picks.
Best Bets for Indiana vs. Ohio State
This looks like a very close contest on paper between the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) and the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS).
Indiana finished with a higher point differential, 401-351, but they also played a slightly softer schedule – not that either team was really tested this year. Throw all the numbers in a blender, and the latest F+ Ratings at BCF Toys still have Ohio State on top of the Hoosiers by a razor-thin 2.39 to 2.36.
Will the betting public overvalue OSU and make Indiana our chosen college football betting pick?
Saturday Odds (OSU –4, –112)
This spread is a bit higher than what you’d expect for the home side in an otherwise even matchup.
Then again, home field has been worth 3.21 points in college this year, according to Jeff Sagarin’s numbers – and we are talking about The Horseshoe, which sharp bettors value somewhere closer to 3.5 points when they make their football picks.
This might actually be one of the tightest lines on Saturday’s NCAAF odds board; there was considerable sharp action on Indiana when they opened at +6.5, and the wiseguys were hitting that traditional underdog-Under parlay with the total at 49.5 points, but there’s not much value left at 47.5 as we go to press.
Saturday Picks (Ohio State –197)
The predicted score has Ohio State beating Indiana 29-22, which might be a tad generous to the favorites.
While it does produce a 71% cover probability for Saturday’s contest at 4.7% Expected Value, shave just a field goal off that Buckeyes score, and you wind up with a 64% cover rate and minus-4% EV. It’s still the best of the straight bets available for this Big Ten battle, but don’t bet the farm on it – save those big bets for our next category.
Bo Jackson (Over 72.5 Rushing Yards –114)
We already have Indiana RB Roman Hemby in our recommended Week 15 NCAAF player props; that’s an even better choice for Saturday’s matchup now that his Rushing Yards total has dipped from 55.5 yards to 53.5.
But for the purposes of this column, we’re featuring an OSU skill player you can add to a same-game parlay with the Buckeyes moneyline and the Over.
This Bo Jackson prop comes with an 11.7% edge on 84.1 projected rushing yards, a reasonable target given his 86.5 yards per game this year and Indiana’s 79.3 yards allowed; CJ Donaldson might come in and bogart some touchdowns near the goal line, but that shouldn’t eat into Jackson’s yardage too much.
Place Your Saturday Night College Picks Now
By putting together a Buckeyes SGP for your Saturday college football bets, we’re hoping to disguise the sharpness of that Bo Jackson prop, but we’re also taking advantage of the mid-week lull between the sharps pounding Indiana and what will likely be a flood of public money on Ohio State this weekend.
Timing is everything; watch those live college football lines at OddsTrader like a hawk, and bet accordingly.
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Said betting margins are only going to get bigger from here to the National Championship on January 19, so start your free 30-day trial today, and let OddsTrader Turbo make your holidays even brighter this year.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.