It pays to visit us here at OddsTrader when you’re lining up your NFL player props Week 17.
For the second week in a row, we swept our recommended football picks at 3-0, leaning on players from underdog teams for extra late-season value – specifically the home dogs, as Richard Borghesi showed us way back in the early Aughts.
Can we do it again in Week 17? Let’s find out.
NFL Picks Week 17 At-a-Glance
It’s a Christmas miracle: We’ve got three home dogs getting at least seven points this Thursday, another six of assorted sizes on Sunday, and one more for Monday Night Football.
Most of these games are divisional rivalries, and several of the favorites are still battling for playoff position, so it’s not a given they’ll mail it in. Nevertheless, according to the projections at OddsTrader, the following NFL prop bets for Week 17 come with massive betting edges attached.
Atlanta’s WR Drake London (Anytime Touchdown Scorer +200)
Monday, December 29 – 08:15 PM ET
If there’s a silver lining to be found for the Falcons (6-9 SU, 7-7-1 ATS), it’s the decent results they’ve gotten from QB Kirk Cousins since he took over for the injured Michael Penix. They’ve gone 3-2 SU and ATS over these past five games, including back-to-back road wins over Tampa Bay (–6.5) and Arizona (+2.5).
Sadly, we don’t have the full slate of NFL player props for Cousins as we go to press, but several of his potential targets are showing large edges for finding the end zone during Monday’s matchup.
Drake London (six TDs in 10 games) tops our list at a mighty 31.8% Expected Value, with a projected 65% chance of cashing in versus the Rams (11-4 SU and ATS). You could also go with one or more of the following:
- WR Kyle Pitts (+275) at 30.0% EV
- RB Tyler Allgeier (+260) at 21.0% EV
- RB Bijan Robinson (–140) at 18.0% EV
- WR David Sills V (+650) at 15.2% EV
We could go on, but you get the idea. The London prop is our choice not just because he has the highest projected EV – don’t forget, these numbers are highly volatile and shouldn’t be treated as gospel – but because Monday is his second game back from the injured list, after being held to zero TDs in last week’s win over the Cardinals.
London should be back up to full speed Monday night after shaking off the ring rust and getting that extra day to recuperate.
Tennessee’s WR Chimere Dike (Anytime Touchdown Scorer +320)
Sunday, December 28 – 01:00 PM ET
Here’s another high-variance choice for our NFL player props.
The Titans (3-12 SU, 7-8 ATS) are pretty bad, and Chimere Dike has just four touchdowns in his rookie campaign, but the fourth-round pick out of Florida has risen up the ranks to become one of QB Cam Ward’s favorite targets, catching TD passes in three of his last five appearances.
This Dike prop has serious legs at 29.7% EV for Sunday’s tilt with the Saints (5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS), despite their three-game undefeated streak through December.
Cleveland’s TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Anytime Touchdown Scorer +300)
Sunday, December 28 – 01:00 PM ET
We’re almost certainly not going 3-0 with this week’s NFL player props, not when we’re sticking with this particular category.
However, Harold Fannin (five TDs) has taken over as the No. 1 tight end for the injured David Njoku, and Cleveland (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) has shown signs of life with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback; the two connected for a touchdown in last week’s 23-20 loss to Buffalo (–10.5 away).
Maybe they’ll cash in this Fannin prop for a projected 24.7% EV during Sunday’s battle with Pittsburgh (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) and their so-so pass defense (plus-0.03 Expected Points Added per play, as per nfelo).
Place Your NFL Bets Now!
We didn’t end up hammering any of those Christmas Day games for our NFL picks; Week 17 has more value for us after the holidays, especially when it comes to the Falcons this Monday night.
Having said that, we’re expecting more projections here at OddsTrader as the week unfolds, so keep a close watch on the live football lines to see what’s available, and Happy Holidays from all of us to all of you.
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