This week, we have three college football bowl picks, with one on Thursday and a pair on Friday, as we prepare to cruise into the weekend.
Our best college football picks include teams that have fought hard to extend their seasons, and one is a pivotal CFP Friday night showdown. On Thursday, we are going to break down the Missouri State vs. Arkansas State matchup as these teams tangle in the Xbox Bowl.
After we beat the books in that one, we are going to roll into the weekend with two college football games in our crosshairs. Memphis vs. NC State in the afternoon before the granddaddy of our triumvirate, Alabama, traveling to Norman, Oklahoma, to take on the Sooners!
NCAAF Picks College Bowl Week At-A-Glance
We have shopped for the sharpest odds at the best online sportsbooks right here at OddsTrader and have done our research to reveal our college football picks for bowl week.
Let’s begin with the Conference USA entry from Missouri State as they take on their Sun Belt foes, Arkansas State, in the Xbox Bowl being held in Frisco, Texas, in our best college football bets.
XBox Bowl: Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1½)
Thursday, December 18, 2025 – 9:00 PM ET
Missouri State was on a five-game heater, covering in four of those contests, before the wheels fell off the wagon and they dropped their last two games of the season. The offense continued to fire on all cylinders, but the MSU defense has taken a vacation, with the Bears losing 41-34 to Kennesaw State and 42-30 to Louisiana Tech.
Arkansas State stopped a two-game skid with a 30-29 win over Appalachian State. The Red Wolves quarterback, Jaylen Raynor, threw for 363 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick in the victory. It set a season-high passing mark for the 6’0” junior.
The oddsmakers have this matchup as a virtual toss-up, but the Bears are getting a narrow head start. Well, I’m not sure they will need it because I believe the books have the wrong favorite in this one. As prolific as Raynor was last week, he was at the top of his game and will likely face a much sterner test by his C-USA opponents this week.
The Arkansas State defense is abysmal. If you review all of the major statistical defensive categories, you will find the Red Wolves in the basement in all of them. They are ranked 117th in total yards allowed, 116th in yards per play, 112th in rushing yards allowed, 105th in passing yards allowed, and 92nd in points allowed (27.3 PPG).
I am not suggesting that the Bears’ offense is a juggernaut, but they are certainly good enough to ring up 30-plus points on the Wolves. Let’s grab the 1½ points just in case we need it and back the road dog here.
Expert Pick: Missouri State +1 ½ (-115) at Caesars
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (-6)
Friday, December 19, 2025 – 2:30 PM ET
As we check out the odds on the Gasparilla Bowl, it is not surprising that NC State is favored, given the shame spiral that has defined the Tigers down the home stretch of the season. In case you missed it, Memphis has lost their last three games, two of which they were installed as favorites, and the other being a 31-27 defeat at the hands of ECU as three-point underdogs.
NC State is going in the opposite direction, having won and covered their last two and three of their last four games. In the Wolfpack’s last outing, they throttled their intrastate neighbor, UNC, by the score of 42-19 and easily covered the seven-point impost.
The key to this game rests with NC State’s sophomore quarterback, CJ Bailey. The tall, rangy gunslinger has been surgically precise this season, connecting on nearly 70% of his passes and throwing for 2,889 yards and 23 touchdowns while rushing for five. The Memphis pass defense is not equipped to contain Bailey, and that mismatch will allow the Wolfpack to win this one by double digits.
Expert Pick: NC State -6 (-108) at Caesars
CFP First Round – Game 1: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+1)
Friday, December 19, 2025 – 8:00 PM ET
We don’t often find Alabama as a small favorite, but if you go shopping at BetMGM, then you’ll find them laying just a point; otherwise, you will likely be laying as many as 2½ points if you are betting the Tide. And that is precisely what we intend to do because this Alabama squad is better than all but a select few teams in the nation, and the Sooners do not inhabit that rarified air.
It was just about a month ago that the Sooners edged the Tide, 23-21, and covered as 6 ½ point road dogs. Now I realize the venue has shifted to Norman, Oklahoma, for this one, but the Tide has shifted from 6½ point home favorites to one-point road favorites in 30 days. This is a 5½ point swing, and it oozes value for Alabama backers.
This should be a defensive struggle, as neither team possesses an elite offense. However, Bama does have an edge in the passing game with Ty Simpson under center, who has tossed for 3,268 yards with 25 TDs and only five picks. Compare those stats to Oklahoma’s junior quarterback, John Mateer, who has thrown for 2,578 yards with 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Lay the small number with Bama, even though you won’t need it.
Expert Pick: Alabama -1 (-110) at BetMGM
Place Your College Football Bowl Picks & How to Bet Smart This Week
The lines on my college football bowl picks, posted today for Missouri State vs. Arkansas State, Memphis vs. NC State, and Alabama vs. Oklahoma, will not remain stagnant forever. Odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the moneylines and point spreads you see here may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best lines or odds available.
While you’re at it, make sure to check out all the NCAAF bowl picks on OddsTrader.
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