NCAAB Pick: Marcus Carr Over 4.5 Assists (+120) at Bet365
Picks Summary:
- Marcus Carr Over 4.5 Assists (+120)
- Tyrese Hunter Over 2.5 Assists (+110)
- Timmy Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
Marcus Carr and the Texas Longhorns make the Over the sharp NCAAB pick for Sunday’s Elite Eight matchup with the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Texas Longhorns
Sunday, March 26, 2023 – 05:05 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena
You may have noticed a pattern with our computer picks of late: they’re mostly on the Under, whether it’s game totals or NCAAB player props. However, we’ve got something a bit different for you this Sunday when the No. 2 Texas Longhorns face the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes in the Midwest Regional Final.
That’s because the Longhorns have one of the best backcourts in college hoops. Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter will be working their magic against Miami; we’re recommending the Over for both their assist props, starting with Carr’s total of 4.5 dimes at +115 vigorish on the early overseas lines.
Who Is Marcus Carr?
Carr is the lead guard for Texas, his third stop in Division I after one season at Pitt and two with Minnesota. The 6-foot-2 Toronto native had his eyes on the 2021 NBA Draft, but apparently didn’t like what he saw, and decided to put in two years with the Longhorns instead.
He probably won’t get drafted this year, either, but Carr still leads Texas with 15.8 points and 4.1 assists per game. As a team, the ‘Horns rank No. 20 in Division I with 16.1 assists per game; they finished with exactly 16 in Friday’s 83-71 Sweet Sixteen win over Xavier.
The distribution of those assists was slightly different than usual. Less than two minutes into the game, Texas lost starting forward Dylan Disu to a bone bruise in his left foot – he came out of the dressing room in a walking boot and is considered day-to-day moving forward.
Without one of their best players on the floor, the Longhorns leaned more on their backcourt; Carr scored 18 points on 7-of-16 shooting, but also dished out six assists, with four of his teammates also scoring in double figures.
This was against a Xavier defense that ranks No. 62 on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts. The Hurricanes are even worse in that department at No. 109; they’re also not that much slower than Xavier at 68.7 possessions per game (No. 99), so Carr should have every opportunity to reach five assists this Sunday.
NCAAB Pick: Marcus Carr Over 4.5 Assists (+120) at Bet365
Who Is Tyrese Hunter?
Hunter is another transfer to Austin, having started his college career at Iowa State, where he was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year for 2022. He’s a natural point guard himself, a 6-footer with a good handle and plenty of hops; Hunter has a lower usage rate next to Carr than he did with the Cyclones, but he’s still given Texas 2.5 assists per game this year.
Conveniently enough, that’s also Hunter’s total for Saturday’s NCAAB picks, with the overseas vig at +115. The Disu injury might have a negative effect on what otherwise looks like another tasty Over bet – Hunter only had two assists against Xavier, leading the ‘Horns in scoring instead with 19 points.
The good news for our bet: Hunter also played 38 minutes on Friday, well above his season average of 30.1. Taking Disu out of the equation leaves one fewer option for head coach Rodney Terry, who has done very well distributing his team’s minutes thus far. Every extra possession for Hunter matters.
NCAAB Pick: Tyrese Hunter Over 2.5 Assists (+110) at Bet365
Who Is Timmy Allen?
For our last NCAAB player prop, we return to familiar ground with the Under, this time targeting Texas forward Timmy Allen and his total of 7.5 rebounds. This is a trickier one to handicap with the overseas juice at -135, but Allen’s season average of 5.6 rebounds gives us confidence in the Under.
So does the fact that Allen only grabbed six boards against Xavier, despite Disu’s absence in the frontcourt. Allen isn’t one of the bigger bigs out there at 6-foot-6; yet another fifth-year player and a transfer from Utah, Allen missed this year’s Big 12 Tournament with a lower-leg injury, but he seems largely unaffected now.
Allen had to deal with some tall trees in that Xavier game. The Hurricanes aren’t quite as massive, but they’re not inclined to give up many rebounds, ranking No. 58 in the nation at 32.1 per game – almost identical to Xavier at 32.3 boards (No. 70).
There’s a non-zero chance Disu will play for Texas this Sunday; reports say it’ll be a game-time decision for Terry, but even if he plays at less than 100%, that should help our Allen pick to cash in, if not the others. Bet accordingly.
NCAAB Pick: Timmy Allen Under 7.5 Rebounds (+100) at Bet365
