Don’t let the small sample size fool you. The Over went 3-1 during Thursday’s Sweet Sixteen games, but the Under is where the betting value is at – and that hasn’t changed heading into Saturday’s Elite Eight matchups.
For starters, we have the Florida Atlantic Owls taking on the Kansas State Wildcats at Madison Square Garden. There’s a total of 145 points on the NCAAB odds board at BetRivers as we go to press; that appears to be enough on the high side to wager a single unit of your bankroll, once you factor in the -113 vigorish attached to this line.
Small favorites have also enjoyed some March Madness betting value this year, and Kansas State does have a sliver of value as 2-point favorites, but as usual, it’s not enough to bet any serious money compared to the total.
NCAAB Pick: Under 145 (-113) at BetRivers
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, March 25, 2023 – 06:09 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
How About Those Owls?
Kudos to No. 9 Florida Atlantic for giving us another great Cinderella story. They kept the Madness flowing Thursday night, upsetting No. 4 Tennessee 62-55 as 4.5-point underdogs. This was the one game of the four that went Under, as we recommended in this space.
Things went pretty much according to plan – although the Volunteers were a slight lean against the spread. Their defensive intensity was off the charts, and the slow pace helped keep a lid on scoring; these two teams combined for an estimated pace of 59.2 possessions according to Sports Reference.
FAU’s defense was even better on this day. The Owls held Tennessee to 21-of-62 shooting from the floor and won the rebounding battle 38-33. The Vols still created plenty of extra opportunities with seven steals, leading to a 12-6 turnover advantage, but it wasn’t nearly enough in the end.
How About Those Wildcats?
Their 98-93 win over No. 7 Michigan State (+1.5) was anything but textbook. The pace was very slow at an estimated 67.6 possessions, but the Under didn’t have a prayer; the Spartans shot 13-of-25 (52.0%) from downtown, and No. 3 Kansas State shot 11-of-24 (45.8%).
With all those buckets going in, the 138-point total was toast well before these teams went into overtime tied at 82. Markquis Nowell also set a Tournament record with 19 assists for K-State, and the last of his five steals prevented Sparty from attempting a game-tying three to force a second overtime.
Can FAU Beat Kansas State?
Certainly. The Owls (34-3 SU, 23-11-1 ATS, 17-17-1 Totals) are the better team on paper, according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats; he has Florida Atlantic ranked No. 17 overall (No. 26 offense, No. 29 defense) in Division I, four spots ahead of Kansas State at No. 21 overall (No. 35 offense, No. 27 defense).
Of course, the Wildcats (26-9 SU, 23-12 ATS, Over 19-16) come from the much stronger Big 12 Conference, which dominated college hoops this year according to the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference.
Don’t sleep on Conference USA though. They finished No. 10 out of the 32 Division I members in SRS, outstanding for a mid-major – and one spot better than the vaunted Atlantic 10.
Program On the Rise
FAU will also be moving to the American Athletic Conference in July, so you know this is a program on the rise. This has been the game plan all along; founded in 1964, Florida Atlantic started their athletic life in the NAIA before moving up to Division II in 1983, then to Division I in 1993.
The Owls continued their upward trajectory through the low majors (Atlantic Sun) and into the mid-majors (Sun Belt, C-USA), reaching their first Big Dance in 2002 as the A-Sun champions under head coach Sidney Green.
But what FAU has accomplished this year under Dusty May is truly remarkable. Last year’s Owls posted a plus-2.63 SRS, their first ever season above D-I average; this year’s team checks in at plus-13.70 SRS, cracking the AP poll for the first time in school history and peaking at No. 19.
Kansas State, meanwhile, played a very soft non-conference schedule before battling it out in the Big 12 – and eventually losing their Champ Week opener to TCU. There’s ample reason to be skeptical about their chances of covering the spread this Saturday.
The Pick
That Under is still very much in play – although the threat of overtime is enough for us to recommend limiting that wager to just a single unit. Bet accordingly.
NCAAB Pick: Under 145 (-113) at BetRivers
