The AI Model gave us three incredible bets to place for tonight’s MLB action. Don’t second-guess the OddsTrader computers, and place these bets for some profit tonight.
Picks Summary
- • Rays -1.5 (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook
- • Pirates-Royals Over 8.5 (-118) at Caesars Sportsbook
- • Dodgers -1.5 (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
Our AI Model believes the Rays will earn a 5.7-4 win over the Marlins on the road tonight. That’s a 1.7 margin, meaning there’s value on the Tampa Bay run line.
The Miami Marlins are falling flat on their faces. They’re still fighting for an NL Wild Card spot. However, the probability continues to drop for the Marlins as they continue to blow leads and play inconsistently.
The Marlins will face Zach Eflin of the Rays tonight. Eflin has struck out over 27% of batters and has only walked 2.7% in the last 30 days. The right-hander has also kept teams to a .308 wOBA and has earned over 49% of ground balls in that time.
He’ll take on a Marlins team that has only hit a .299 wOBA against righties in the last month. More of the lineup has a wOBA of .296 or lower than higher.
Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo will get the call for the Marlins. The left-hander has allowed a .364 ISO and wOBA of .455 to his last 84 batters. He’s also allowed 38.6% of fly balls while inducing only 31.6% of ground balls over the last month.
The Rays aren’t a terrific offense against lefties. But they’ve got the better matchup. The top of the lineup has power, including Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes. The projected lineup has just three batters striking out more than 20% of the time against lefties over the last month.
Back the Rays on the runline. The AI Model knows.
MLB Pick: Rays -1.5 (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Pirates and Royals will combine for 11.4 runs in tonight’s matchup. With the total set at 8.5, the Over is one of the AI Model’s favorite betting targets of the night.
The Royals haven’t been a terrible offense lately. They’ve hit a .188 ISO and wOBA of .338 against righties over the last 30 days. The projected lineup has also struck out just 19.3% of the time against righties.
Tonight, they’ll take on Andre Jackson of the Pirates. Jackson has a high strikeout rate and hasn’t allowed many base runners. But he’s only induced 35.3% of ground balls over the last 30 days. On top of that, Jackson has allowed over 29% of line drives.
Jackson has given up a 64.7% hard contact percentage to his last 77 batters. If the Royals don’t strike out, Jackson could be in trouble. The Royals have potential against Jackson.
On the other hand, Angel Zerpa will give it a go for the Royals. He’s a lefty who has thrown 44.7 pitches per appearance this season. Likely, he’ll throw about 50 pitches in tonight’s game, too.
However, he’s allowed a .283 ISO and wOBA of .442 to 61 righties this season. Ke’Bryan Hayes and other righties in the Pirates’ lineup should destroy Zerpa tonight.
Therefore, I’ll grab the Over in this matchup. The AI Model has this game earning more than 11 runs. I agree.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-118) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model suggests the Dodgers will defeat the Diamondbacks, 7.4-4.8, in tonight’s late-night showdown. The Dodgers are just -155 on the moneyline. But the AI suggests we get riskier and take the Dodgers on the runline.
The Diamondbacks aren’t getting much offense against right-handed pitchers anymore. The projected lineup has hit a .172 ISO and wOBA of .337 over the last 30 days. Only Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno have hit outstanding numbers against righties over the last month.
The team has even struck out over 22% of the time. That’s not a good sign going up against Dodgers’ righty Ryan Pepiot, who has struck out 32.4% of batters since getting a call-up from the Dodgers.
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks will showcase their young arm in Brandon Pfaadt. He’s limited teams to a .132 ISO and wOBA of .259, but he’s thrown just 87 pitches per start this season.
He won’t last very long, and the Arizona bullpen has recently broken down.
Los Angeles’ lineup has smacked a .197 ISO and wOBA of .354 with only 19.8% of strikeouts against righties. They’ve been much better than Arizona against righties.
Let’s count on the Dodgers to earn a runline victory.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
