MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-222) at BetMGM
Picks Summary:
- Rockies vs. Rangers: Rangers ML (-222)
- Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Over 8.5 (-105)
- Twins vs. Angels: Under 8 (-120)
As the leading MLB pick in the AL West, the Texas Rangers are an easy choice this Sunday when they host the Colorado Rockies.
Quick: Who’s the second-best team in baseball? We know the Tampa Bay Rays (33-13, plus-7.37 betting units at press time) have been in the first place since Opening Day, but is there anyone out there who’s close?
The answer may surprise you. The Texas Rangers (27-17, plus-6.46 units) are fifth in the overall standings, but their plus-92 run differential is second only to Tampa Bay’s at plus-122. No wonder the computers at OddsTrader have Texas leading off our baseball picks for Sunday.
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, May 21, 2023 – 02:35 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
So how real are the Rangers? They were expected to finish somewhere around .500 this year, with a win total of 81.5 and +2200 odds to win the American League pennant. Now, Texas is on top of the AL West, and their 27-17 record is actually four games lower than their expected Pythagorean record.
As fate would have it, the Rangers are also No. 2 to Tampa Bay in hitting WAR according to FanGraphs – but their pitching ranks one slot higher in sixth. Unfortunately for Texas supporters, they’re at the back end of their rotation Sunday with Andrew Heaney (4.37 xFIP), who’s down 0.43 betting units this year on a team record of 4-4.
You’re doing pretty well for yourself if Heaney is your No. 5 starter. Meanwhile, the Rockies are sending reliever Connor Seabold (5.61-lifetime xFIP) to the hill for a spot start, his fourth of the year thus far; miraculously, Colorado swept the other three for 3.99 units in earnings, by a combined score of 28-15.
It’s enough of a mismatch that the OT computers have Texas coming out ahead by 6.6 runs to 4.4. Once again, we suspect this projection is a bit generous to both sides, but the 2.2-run gap between the two teams seems reasonable enough to pound the Rangers at -222 on the MLB odds board at BetMGM.
This is a Colorado team that ranks dead-last in hitting WAR, and below replacement level (minus-0.3) to boot. Current Rockies have a combined .618 lifetime OPS off Heaney, and that includes games at Coors Field. The only thing Seabold has to offer is surprise; this will be the first time any Rangers have faced him in the big leagues. It’s easily the best betting opportunity on Sunday’s slate.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-222) at BetMGM
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, May 21, 2023 – 02:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Wouldn’t you know it, we had the Under in our baseball picks for each of the first three games in this series, splitting the first two – Game 3 is in progress as these words hit the page. However, the computers are recommending Over 8.5 runs for the finale, with the Dodgers projected to win five runs to 4.3.
St. Louis might have a hard time getting to four runs with Clayton Kershaw (3.04 xFIP) due up for Los Angeles. When they last did battle on April 29, Kershaw held the Cards to two hits in seven innings as the Dodgers prevailed 1-0 (Under 8). But that was at Dodger Stadium, where Kershaw has the Under at 3-1 compared to 1-4-1 on the road.
It’ll be Jack Flaherty (4.62 xFIP) starting for St. Louis this time; the Over is 6-3 in his nine starts, including 3-1 at Busch Stadium, which should see sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s this Sunday afternoon with only slight breezes down the first-base line.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, May 21, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
One more time around with the Twins and Angels, and we’ve got another situation where the OT computers have it as a pick’em on the total of eight runs, Los Angeles prevailing 4.7 runs to 3.3. Under 8 (-120) is available on the overseas MLB lines at press time, so we’re confident the computers will approve.
Anyone who’s watched Shohei Ohtani (3.46 xFIP) will approve. Yes, Ohtani also mashes the ball for a .892 OPS, but he’s such a good pitcher that the Under is 5-4 in his nine starts, with the able assistance of the No. 4 bullpen on the FanGraphs WAR charts.
Pablo Lopez (3.56 xFIP) is almost as good as Ohtani, at least in the pitching department. He’s split the totals at 4-4-1 for the Twins, and we’re still dealing with those 10-mph winds blowing out toward center, but with these two starters (and to a lesser degree, Minnesota’s No. 13-ranked bullpen), a slight lean toward the Under makes perfect sense. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-120) at Bet365
