Did you have the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers in your NFL picks last Sunday? You did if you followed the advice in our Week 1 Upset Alert. Brian Daboll showed why he’s the right head coach for the Giants and Mitch Trubisky showed that he can perform at replacement level for the Steelers.
Both those wins were close shaves, but the betting value was definitely on the underdogs. We’ve got two more loveable pups lined up for Week 2, so let’s take a closer look at what makes these teams the upset threats they are.
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 18, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium
Why Are the Jets Valuable?
The Giants had all the earmarks of an upset special last week. The Jets? They’re not on the same upward trajectory as a franchise, and they didn’t put up much of a fight in their 24-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, who were -270 road faves on the NFL odds.
Good thing the Jets aren’t playing Baltimore this week. Cleveland actually had a reasonably good game against the Carolina Panthers (-118 at home), but they still needed a 58-yard field goal from Cade York to win 26-24.
Which is where the Jets derive their betting value for Week 2. Casual fans can always be counted on to overreact to what happens in Week 1; they saw Cleveland win and New York lose, and they’re probably not thinking too much about anything else, including the strength of schedule.
You might want to make this a smaller bet given how shaky the Jets are, but don’t forget, it’s the Browns on the other side of the field. And New York did just slide down from +220 to +215 as we were going to press, so they must get getting at least some love from the sharps.
NFL Pick: Jets (+215) at MaximBet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 18, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Why Are the Saints Valuable?
New Orleans might be a more palatable choice for your football picks – as long as you’re not spooked about Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The Saints swept their season series last year, even though Jameis Winston played less than one half of one game before getting injured.
It’s kind of strange that Brady decided to un-retire and come back for (at least) one more season at age 45. He doesn’t have Rob Gronkowski to throw at anymore, and his offensive line isn’t what it used to be – especially now that LT Donovan Smith (elbow) is questionable for Week 2.
Tampa’s defense was the real MVP in their 19-3 win over Dallas (+120 at FanDuel). Brady finished No. 19 overall on the quarterback DYAR charts at Football Outsiders, well behind Winston at No. 11. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Saints (+128) at FanDuel