Weekend Series Preview: Brewers Fight for the Wild Card Spot Against Marlins

corbin burnes milwaukee brewers pitcher mlb
Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at American Family Field. John Fisher/Getty Images/AFP

The Milwaukee Brewers are a couple of games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. Can they earn a sweep over the Marlins, at home, in a four-game series? Here’s a breakdown of the important series for Milwaukee.

What You Should Know

The Milwaukee Brewers are sitting 1.5 games out of the NL Wild Card, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 games.

The Phillies will take on the Nationals over the weekend. But the series will be on the road. Maybe Washington can steal one from the Phillies.

Meanwhile, the Brewers will play a four-game home series against the Miami Marlins. The Brewers have a very favorable matchup heading into the weekend.

Will the Brewers be able to earn a series sweep over Miami and find a way into the final wild-card spot? Here’s a breakdown of the weekend series between the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Game 1

Thursday, September 29, 2022 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field

Pitching for the Marlins

The Marlins will begin the series with Braxton Garrett on the mound for Thursday. He’s a lefty pitcher with 24.4% of strikeouts over the last 30 days.

He’s also limited walks and is inducing 50% of ground balls over the last 30 days. Garrett has allowed a little bit of power to righties over the last 30 days, but he’s been a solid number five pitcher for the Marlins this season.

Pitching for the Brewers

Garrett will face another lefty in Eric Lauer. Lauer has a 4.38 xFIP but has struck out 21.4% of batters while walking just 7.1%.

The problem with Lauer is that he’s allowed a .405 BABIP through his last 56 plate appearances. That’s likely going to go down, but until it does, he’s going to struggle.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Game 2

Friday, September 30, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field

Pitching for the Marlins

Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins on Friday.

The righty is likely going to win the Cy Young this season and has had many games where he’s gone at least eight innings. That’s what separated him from the rest of the NL pitchers.

He’s struck out over 23% of batters and has walked under 3% of batters while getting over 50% of ground balls over the last 30 days. Righties are hitting a .345 wOBA and ISO of .169 while lefties have an ISO of .186. He hasn’t been perfect but is still pitching lights out.

Pitching for the Brewers

Meanwhile, the Brewers have set things up perfectly. Corbin Burnes will start against Alcantara, looking to go toe-to-toe with the likely NL Cy Young winner.

Burnes has a 3.25 xFIP with 26.1% of strikeouts. Recently, Burnes has pitched better than Alcantara analytically. It’s something to think about.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Game 3

Saturday, October 01, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at American Family Field

Pitching for the Marlins

Edward Cabrera will get the next start on Saturday for Miami. He’s holding a 5.74 xFIP with 10.7% of walks over the last 30 days.

Righties are getting to him, as he’s allowing a .422 wOBA and ISO of .370 in his last 57 plate appearances against righties.

Pitching for the Brewers

Against Cabrera, it’ll be Freddy Peralta. Peralta has a 5.52 xFIP for the Brewers through the last 30 days. He’s walked 8.6% of batters and has earned just 34.8% of ground balls.

However, he’s also got a BABIP of .136 and limiting line drives to 4.3%. There’s a lot of good that comes with the bad for Peralta.

We know what kind of pitcher he is from previous years and once he gets comfortable, he’s going to be a dominant pitcher again.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Game 4

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 02:10 PM EDT at American Family Field

Pitching for the Marlins

To finish off the series, Pablo Lopez will get the start for the Marlins. He’s struck out 22.5% of batters over the last 30 days and has earned nearly 46% of ground balls. He will give up some line drives here and there.

Lefties have a high wOBA of .367 while righties have a higher ISO of .262 against Lopez in the last month.

Pitching for the Brewers

Lopez will face Adrian Houser of the Brewers in the final game.

Houser has been the worst pitcher on the Brewers this season. In the last 30 days, he has a 6.52 xFIP with just 7.8% of strikeouts and 11.8% of walks. That’s through his last 102 plate appearances.

The Offenses

Marlins vs. Righties

The Marlins are hitting a .126 ISO and wOBA of .269 over the last 30 days against righties. They’ve struck out 23.6% of the time and have walked under 6% of the time against righties.

Only Bryan De La Cruz has consistently hit righties with a .289 ISO and wOBA of .452. The rest of the lineup has been underwhelming, to say the least, against righties. There’s absolutely no consistency.

Marlins vs. Lefties

However, against lefties, the Marlins have a .344 wOBA and 30.4% of line drives hit. They’ll face Eric Lauer on Thursday, who is a lefty, so this is significant.

The Marlins have way more potential against lefties. Again, Bryan De La Cruz is the major bat doing work for the Marlins.

Brewers vs. Lefties

The Brewers are hitting a .180 ISO and wOBA of .330 against lefties in their last 30 days.

Willy Adames, Mike Brosseau, Luis Urias, and Tyrone Taylor have produced against lefties in that time frame, but Milwaukee is still striking out at a very high rate against lefties.

Brewers vs. Righties

Against righties, the Brewers haven’t been nearly as consistent. Kolten Wong will slot in along with Rowdy Tellez to make things harder on righties, but overall, the Brewers are better against lefties.

Still, Milwaukee has a better lineup than the Marlins when facing righties, which will help them have an advantage in three of four games.

I like Milwaukee to escape with three wins in this four-game series.

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