The top betting sites have released their odds for the Super Bowl LVIII MVP award and, as you would expect for what is commonly called a passing league, the odds favor the starting quarterbacks for the Big Game.
After reviewing the favorites and explaining why someone might invest in them, I will recommend 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel as your best bet.
- Patrick Mahomes (+110)
- Brock Purdy (+225)
- Christian McCaffrey (+400)
- Deebo Samuel (+3300)
*All odds from Bet365
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Bet365 lists Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the favorite, at +110, to be named Super Bowl MVP.
It must come as no surprise that a quarterback is the favorite to win the award because 12 of the last 17 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks.
Nobody would question whether Mahomes is better than San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy, so it makes sense that Mahomes is favored over Purdy.
Mahomes is a two-time Super Bowl champion. He has also been named Super Bowl MVP twice. In addition to these accolades, he has several others that explain why oddsmakers would favor him over Purdy.
These other accolades include two regular season MVP awards and three first-team All-Pro selections. But perhaps the biggest reason why Mahomes is favored over Purdy is that he’s more central to his team’s offense.
Purdy is commonly regarded as a system quarterback or a game manager. He relies heavily on his teammates to make plays. For example, his drastic statistical decline when wide receiver Deebo Samuel is absent is undeniable.
In addition to relying on Samuel, he has another terrific wide receiver in Brandon Aiyuk, one of the best tight ends in George Kittle, perhaps the best running back in Christian McCaffrey, and a great offensive system in which every player thrives.
A Good Cast but Not Great
Conversely, Mahomes has a running back in Isiah Pacheco who is good but not great. He has tight end Travis Kelce who has often underperformed this year. One wide receiver in Rashee Rice stands out. In total, Mahomes’ surrounding weapons are inferior in ability and reputation to San Francisco’s.
The takeaway here is that if the Chiefs win it will be much likelier that Mahomes leads them to victory, whereas other players besides Purdy could easily be more responsible for a 49ers win.
MVP Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+110) at Bet365
As a quarterback, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is the second-most favored to win the award. While he’s no Mahomes, he is a strong quarterback in his own right.
It is not too long ago that his name circulated in regular season MVP discussions. In the regular season, he ranked fifth in passing yards, third in touchdowns, and first in quarterback rating.
Say what you want about the help he gets from his surrounding talent; this stat line is very attractive.
If he puts up such a stat line in the Super Bowl, then it might be too hard to ignore for those who decide on the recipient of the MVP award.
MVP Pick: Brock Purdy (+225) at Bet365
San Francisco’s star running back is the third-most favored player to win Super Bowl MVP. McCaffrey is a clear third as after him there is a steep drop in the odds.
He is an elite running back: he’ll run over defenders or juke his way past them. He’ll also operate as an effective pass-catcher. You have to figure that the Super Bowl MVP will collect some touchdowns.
McCaffrey is pretty much automatic as a scorer, increasing his appeal. In the regular season, he ranked fourth in rushing touchdowns with 14, in addition to ranking first in rushing yards.
CMC also amassed 67 receptions for 564 receiving yards.
The strength of Kansas City is its pass defense, whereas it ranks mediocre in run defense.
So the matchup opportunity is there for a stud who is reliable even against tougher run defenses, as he just amassed 132 total yards from scrimmage against Detroit’s highly-ranked run defense.
MVP Pick: Christian McCaffrey (+400) at Bet365
My Pick: Deebo Samuel
I perceive great value in 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. While I just acknowledged Kansas City’s strong pass defense, there is a caveat.
The Chiefs excel at limiting opposing number-one wide receivers. From Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 1 to Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs, along with sundry other examples, top wide receivers struggle against the Chiefs.
Based on the statistics, Brandon Aiyuk is clearly San Francisco’s top wide receiver.
Wide receivers lower on their team’s depth chart, like Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk, have thrived against the Chiefs.
With their attention focused on Aiyuk, the Chiefs will be vulnerable to Deebo Samuel, San Francisco’s second-best wide receiver.
Samuel is a versatile weapon who is dangerous on the ground but is primarily an effective wide receiver. As a ball carrier, he is fast and quick but also strong and explosive.
Purdy’s numbers increase significantly when Samuel plays. Excepting the first quarter in which he exited against the Browns, the 49ers have only lost to regular season top seed Baltimore when Samuel played.
So it stands to reason to expect the 49ers to win with Samuel playing, and there is a lot of value in Samuel’s MVP odds given Kansas City’s focus on limiting its opponent’s top wide receiver and given his centrality to San Francisco’s offensive success.
There is also recent history supporting a wide receiver, as two of the last five Super Bowl MVPs have been wide receivers.
MVP Pick: Deebo Samuel (+3300) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.