With 365 teams in Division I college basketball, the NCAA Tournament is designed to do one thing: take a field of 68 qualifiers and whittle it down to the two best teams standing for a shot at the national championship. But March Madness doesn’t always follow the script. Sometimes the bracket conspires to pit the two strongest teams against each other before the title game, turning a late round matchup into the real championship in disguise.
That’s the situation we’re dealing with this year: A de facto championship game between No. 1 Michigan and No. 1 Arizona being played in the Final Four. There’s no denying that these are the two best teams remaining in the field, but given the structure of the tournament, only one will get the opportunity to play for the national title.Â
Part of what makes both teams so dominant is their ability to win on offense and defense. The Wolverines rank No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in defensive efficiency, while the Wildcats come in at No. 4 and No. 2, respectively. The margin is razor-thin.Â
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen two No. 1 seeds meet in the Final Four. In fact, this will be the 16th time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Still, it’s a fairly rare occasion: This will only be the eighth time it’s happened since the turn of the century.
Surprisingly, these games haven’t always been that close. Of the 15 times No. 1 seeds have met in the Final Four since 1985, the average margin of victory stands at roughly 8.9 points. Only one game – a bout between Michigan and Kentucky in 1993 – went to overtime.
Let’s get into the odds for this weekend’s showdown between Michigan and Arizona, plus a look at the most important players to keep an eye on.
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Arizona vs. Michigan Odds Breakdown
Betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline and current as of Monday, March 30.
- Moneyline: Michigan (-121) / Arizona (+101)
- Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-113) / Arizona +1.5 (-107)
- Total: Over 158 Points (-110) / Under 158 Points (-110)
Lines are always subject to change, but I would anticipate all three of these categories remaining fairly close to these marks as we approach tip-off. The metrics indicate a toss-up, and oddsmakers seem to agree.
A Closer Look at the Spread
Michigan opened as a 1.5-point favorite and has stayed put. These teams’ track records this season suggests that neither will be blown out: Arizona’s most lopsided loss came by four points against Kansas, while Michigan’s was by eight against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship.
The narrow margin between Michigan and Arizona’s statistical profiles is another reason to believe the spread will continue to hover around one point. Per KenPom, their net ratings are separated by less than three-tenths of a point.Â
Bet the Over or Under?
Both offenses are capable of exploding – Michigan has yet to score less than 90 points in a game in the NCAA Tournament – so by those standards, the total seems fairly low at 158 points. On the flip side, these teams are just as dominant defensively as they are on the other end of the floor, and Arizona just held Purdue (the previous top-ranked offense) to 64 points.
Assuming this is a tight, closely-contested game, some late free throws could make all the difference in determining whether this one goes over or under. For what it’s worth, overs are 16-22 for Michigan and 19-19 for Arizona.
Key Players to Watch
Unsurprisingly, a matchup between the two best teams in college basketball will also feature some of the nation’s best players (and NBA Draft prospects). Here are a few names to listen for during the game.
Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan)
Lendeborg got off to a slow start in the NCAA Tournament, scoring just nine points on five shots in the first round against No. 16 Howard. He must’ve just been conserving his energy for the coming games, however, because the Big Ten Player of the Year has been on a roll since then.
Over his last three appearances, the 6-foot-9 forward has averaged 25 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, plus a steal and a block, while shooting 61.4 percent from the field and 52.6 percent from 3-point range. He’s a monster on both ends of the floor and one of the most physically imposing players in all of college basketball.
Brayden Burries (Arizona)
Burries is as steady a guard as you’ll find in the NCAA Tournament. The freshman is averaging 17.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists throughout March Madness, and he’s also been red-hot from beyond the arc, sinking 13 out of 19 (68.4 percent) of his 3-point attempts.
A strong rebounder at his position, Burries leverages his 6-foot-4-inch frame on the defensive end of the floor to limit second-chance scoring opportunities. On defense, Burries locked in for three steals against Purdue, forcing costly turnovers against a team that ranked among the nation’s best at protecting the ball.Â
Koa Peat (Arizona)
Another star freshman, Arizona’s Koa Peat is a physical forward who thrives inside the arc. His best games in the NCAA Tournament have come against the toughest competition: The 19-year-old went for 21 points against Arkansas in the Sweet 16 before delivering another 20-point performance in a win over Purdue.
Peat isn’t a threat from beyond the arc, but he doesn’t need to be. He’s also drawn praise for improved play on defense, which comes at a critical time. He’ll be tasked with defending Lendeborg for much of the Michigan game, and he can’t afford to turn in a half-effort.
Elliot Cadeau (Michigan)
Cadeau is a true playmaker, and he’s one of the engines behind a Michigan offense that ranks inside the top five nationally in assists. The former North Carolina guard averages a team-high 5.8 helpers per game, and he’s been even more effective as a passer in the NCAA Tournament, dishing out at least seven and as many as 10 in every game.
Cadeau is also an efficient 3-point shooter, and he’s a surprisingly impressive defender for his 6-foot-1 frame. He’s been instrumental in taking pressure off of Lendeborg while setting him and Morez Johnson Jr. up for high-percentage looks.
How to Bet on Arizona vs. Michigan
History suggests that this game may not be all that close, while oddsmakers believe it could come down to the last possession. No matter which way you lean, it’s important that you only bet on the game at the most reputable, well-reviewed offshore sportsbooks to get the most bang for your buck.
Compare betting lines for the Final Four using OddsTrader’s odds comparison tool to make sure you get the best price on every bet.
