The 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks and 3rd-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to square off in the Sweet 16, renewing a historic rivalry that is currently tied at 40 wins apiece. The two programs have only met five times since 2000, with their last showdown coming in the 2021 NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NCAA Basketball odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 147.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thursday, March 27, 2025 – 10:09 PM EDT at Chase Center
The Story So Far
Arkansas punched its ticket to the Sweet 16 with a 75-66 win over St. John’s, powered by a strong bench performance from Billy Richmond III, who tallied 16 points and nine rebounds. Karter Knox added 15 points and six rebounds, while Johnell Davis contributed 13 points and four boards.
Texas Tech advanced with a 77-64 victory over Drake, led by Darrion Williams’ stellar 28-point, six-rebound, five-assist outing. JT Toppin dominated the paint with 25 points and 12 rebounds, while Elijah Hawkins provided 16 points and seven assists to round out the Red Raiders’ offensive attack.
Texas Tech finished the regular season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll and has been tested down the stretch, going 5-2 in its last seven games.
The Red Raiders’ two losses came against No. 2 Houston and No. 21 Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals. They posted a 10-5 record in Quad 1 games, and Toppin has been the key to their success.
The Big 12 Player of the Year averaged 17.9 points and 9.2 rebounds during the regular season while recording 13 games with at least 20 points and 14 double-doubles. In the NCAA Tournament, he has continued to shine, averaging 18.5 points and 11.5 rebounds while shooting an impressive 79.8% from the field.
Arkansas will have four days to prepare for Texas Tech, which could be crucial in determining the availability of junior forward Adou Thiero. Sidelined since February 22 with a hyperextended left knee, Thiero was a game-time decision for the St. John’s matchup but was ultimately ruled out. His potential return could provide much-needed defensive reinforcements against a Texas Tech team that thrives on physical play in the paint.
This is Arkansas’ fourth Sweet 16 appearance in the last five seasons, the only miss coming last year when the Razorbacks failed to make the NCAA Tournament. For head coach John Calipari, this marks his 16th career Sweet 16 appearance, spanning four different programs.
Keys to the Game
Toppin has been a force all season, and his ability to score efficiently while controlling the glass makes him the biggest problem Arkansas will have to solve.
The Razorbacks lack an interior defender who can match Toppin’s size and skill, meaning they’ll need to throw multiple defenders at him to keep him from dictating the game inside.
If Arkansas can limit his second-chance points and force him into contested looks, they’ll increase their chances of pulling off the upset.
The Razorbacks have relied on a balanced scoring attack, with Richmond III, Knox, and Davis all stepping up against St. John’s.
Texas Tech, however, boasts one of the better defensive units in the nation, specializing in ball pressure and forcing turnovers. If Arkansas can stay composed against the Red Raiders’ defense and take care of the ball, they’ll be able to establish their offensive rhythm. But if Texas Tech can dictate the tempo with its aggressive defense, Arkansas could struggle to find clean scoring opportunities.
If Thiero returns, his presence could be a game-changer, particularly on the defensive end. His ability to guard multiple positions and provide rebounding help would be a major boost for the Razorbacks against a physical Texas Tech team. However, if he remains sidelined or plays with limited effectiveness, Arkansas may be forced into a smaller lineup, which could play into the Red Raiders’ hands.
Texas Tech thrives on forcing mistakes and turning them into easy baskets. Arkansas must be disciplined in its half-court sets and avoid careless turnovers that could lead to transition opportunities for the Red Raiders. If the Razorbacks can control possessions and force Texas Tech into a slower, more methodical game, they’ll gain a clear edge in perimeter scoring and playmaking.
NCAA Tournament Pick
This game is a clash of styles—Texas Tech will try to slow the pace and control the paint, while Arkansas will look to use its depth and perimeter attack to push the tempo. Toppin’s presence inside is a major factor, and if he has another big game, the Red Raiders will be in prime position to advance. However, if Arkansas’ guard play holds up under pressure and they limit second-chance opportunities for Texas Tech, the Razorbacks could find a way to steal the win.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 147.5 (-110) at Bet365
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