NCAAB Pick: Drew Timme Under 32.5 Total Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) at Unibet
Drew Timme is coming off one of the most impressive performances in March Madness history. Timme scored 36 points this past Thursday to lead the No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs past the No. 2 UCLA Bruins 79-76, and into the Elite Eight this Saturday versus the No. 4 UConn Huskies.
Impressive, yes, but this also sets Timme up for failure – at least when it comes to Saturday’s NCAAB player props. The Under should have even more betting value than usual after a strong performance like that, one that millions of casual bettors were watching and biting their nails over.
Our three Timme targets for your college basketball picks will be some of the most popular player props on the board:
- “PAR” (Points + Assists + Rebounds)
And bettors love their PAR these days so that prop should have the most value of the three.
Saturday, March 25, 2023 – 08:49 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena
Who Is Drew Timme?
Gonzaga’s best player is already a legend in college hoops. Unlike many of the star recruits head coach Mark Few has brought to Spokane in recent years, like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Suggs, Timme took the full four years with the Bulldogs – he could have played five thanks to COVID-19, but declined.
That’s because Timme’s skill set doesn’t translate directly to NBA success. He’s a relatively one-dimensional player on offense, a semi-athletic 6-foot-10 big with excellent footwork and soft hands, but a poor shooter once you get him further away from the rim.
Timme can also be exposed at the defensive end, which is why we’re not afraid to take the Under for his rebounding and his PAR totals despite his otherwise excellent work on the glass. Those rebound opportunities won’t be there for Timme if the Huskies don’t miss their shots.
Because of these weaknesses, Timme only projects as a late second-round pick at the 2023 NBA Draft, not unlike Purdue’s Zach Edey, who will almost certainly win this year’s Wooden Award.
Reigning winner Oscar Tshiebwe (Kentucky) is another fringe second-round candidate this year; 2021 winner Luke Garza (Iowa) was selected No. 52 overall by the Philadelphia 76ers.
Can UConn Stop Timme?
They’ll probably do a better job than UCLA did. The Bruins rank second in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats, while Connecticut ranks No. 14, but the Huskies have certain attributes that the Bruins were lacking in their Sweet Sixteen matchup with Gonzaga.
The key attribute is size. It’s not that UCLA were small, especially with 6-foot-10 forward Adem Bona on the frontline, but UConn have an even bigger weapon in 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan – who also happens to be their best player at both ends, where Bona was more of a defensive stopper.
If you haven’t heard much about Clingan, it’s because he’s a backup big for the Huskies who gets in about 13-15 minutes per game, but those are valuable minutes on a team that normally relies on its tall 3-man backcourt to lock down their opponents.
Clingan’s presence will make it a lot more challenging for Timme to rack up numbers at both ends of the court. Timme scored his 36 points against UCLA on a very efficient 16-of-24 from the floor, including a very rare 3-pointer; that’s well above his 13.7 attempts and 21.5 points per game on the season. Regression is coming.
NCAAB Pick: Drew Timme Under 21.5 Points (-110) at Bet365
Looking more specifically at the rebounds, Timme pulled down 13 boards against the Bruins this past Thursday, including five on the offensive end. That’s nearly double his season average of 7.5 rebounds, which once again matches his total for Saturday.
Rebounding wasn’t a big part of UCLA’s success this year. They were in the middle of the pack at 35.3 rebounds per game, or No. 150 among the 363 teams in Division I. The Huskies, on the other hand, rank No. 17 in the nation at 39.0 rebounds per game.
Again, a lot of those boards get hoovered up by UConn’s taller guards, but even as a reserve, Clingan is third on the Huskies at 5.8 rebounds per game. He’s a highly skilled player who has much more potential as an NBA prospect than Timme; Saturday is Clingan’s chance to show everyone why. Bet accordingly.
NCAAB Pick: Drew Timme Under 7.5 Rebounds (-120) at FanDuel