The NFL’s Divisional Round features the No. 1 seeds (Ravens and 49ers) coming off their bye to host some young quarterbacks playing beyond their years in Jordan Love (Packers) and C.J. Stroud (Texans).
The spreads are nearly 10 points in both games, but after 22 straight quarters without a lead change in the wild card round, we are ready for some fireworks and more back-and-forth scoring this Saturday.
For the rest of the postseason, be sure to view the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the top sportsbooks to make these player props for Saturday’s Divisional Round action.
Picks Summary
- Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) Receiving Yards Over 31.5 (-113) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (-115) at Bet365
- Gus Edwards (BAL) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jayden Reed (GB) Receiving Yards Over 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Brock Purdy (SF) Passing Attempts Under 30.5 (-120) at Bet365
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Odell Beckham Jr. (Baltimore Ravens)
Typically with Houston, you’d like to play the tight end for props, as the Texans allow a lot of catches to that position. We saw it last week with David Njoku having the big game for Cleveland instead of wide receiver Amari Cooper, but that also could have been due to Cooper’s heel injury.
But there is some confusion in Baltimore over whether star tight end Mark Andrews will make his return from injury this week or not. Isaiah Likely has done a very good job in Andrews’ absence, but the Ravens would obviously love to get Lamar Jackson’s most reliable target back as soon as possible.
But I think instead of playing tight-end roulette with the Ravens this week, let’s go right to the savvy playoff veteran the team brought in for games like this and go with Odell Beckham Jr. to make an impact. He’s already talked to the media this week about how he could have been Super Bowl MVP for the Rams 2 years ago if he hadn’t torn his ACL in that game.
This is Beckham’s 1st playoff game since then. He had at least 52 yards in every playoff game for the Rams that year. Beckham had 37 yards against the Texans in Week 1, his debut with Baltimore.
The Pick
Beckham has gone over 31.5 yards in 9-of-14 games this year, but his home-road split is very amusing:
- Beckham has gone over 31.5 yards in 7-of-7 home games
- Beckham has gone over 31.5 yards in 2-of-7 road games
- Beckham’s top 6 games in receiving yards in 2023 are at home
- Beckham’s bottom 5 games in receiving yards in 2023 are on the road
Where are the Ravens this week? Home like a No. 1 seed should be. We’ll take his over and he could do it on one play as the Texans are prone to giving up big plays – Houston allowed the 4th-most pass plays of 30-plus yards this year with 26 such completions. That’s the most among any playoff defense this year.
Beckham was tied with Zay Flowers for the team lead with 5 catches of 30-plus yards this year despite having 35 total catches to 77 for Flowers. That’s why we also like Beckham to go over 17.5 yards for his longest catch.
NFL Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Over 31.5 (-113) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
NFL Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (-115) at Bet365
Gus Edwards (Baltimore Ravens)
The Ravens have gone through plenty of changes at running back this year. They have lost J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell to season-ending injuries. Just this week, they released veteran Melvin Gordon to make way for veteran Dalvin Cook for this playoff run.
But a constant has been Gus Edwards. He led the backfield with 810 rushing yards, and he led the Ravens with 13 touchdowns. They still rely on him at the goal line as the team has not adopted the Jalen Hurts (Eagles) or Josh Allen (Bills) approach this year of sneaking Lamar Jackson into the end zone from the 1-yard line. They just give it to the Gus Bus and he usually delivers.
The Pick
Edwards did not score a touchdown in Week 1 against Houston. He finished with 8 carries for 32 yards, while it was Justice Hill who gobbled up the short scores with 8 carries, 9 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dobbins also had a touchdown that day.
But Edwards is usually the better goal-line option than Hill, and Dobbins is no longer there. We expect the Ravens to try to make a point about their past postseason scoring woes under Jackson. Look for Edwards to find the end zone at least once in this game.
NFL Pick: Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Jayden Reed (Green Bay Packers)
There was a lot of hype for Green Bay rookie receiver Jayden Reed going into Dallas as he was coming off arguably his 2 best games of the season. Despite a strong showing from the Green Bay offense, Reed finished with a bagel.
He had no catches on 3 targets. The Packers only threw the ball 21 times, but you would have thought he’d get at least a catch. But that can be the nature of a young team that does not have well-defined roles for their receivers. Reed led the team in receiving categories this year, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a true No. 1 receiver yet.
The good news is this should change this week. Reportedly, the Packers used 2-tight end formations at a very high rate in Dallas to surprise the Cowboys, who failed to adjust. The 49ers defend this personnel grouping much better and won’t be surprised this week.
That’s why you should expect the Packers to revert back to their more normal offense, which means getting Reed more heavily involved. Getting involved at all would be a nice upgrade after last week.
The Pick
Reed has gone over 42.5 yards in 9 games this season. We’ll chalk last week up to a gameplan difference, a lack of opportunities with the pass attempts, and the score getting out of whack so quickly.
With the 49ers having the potential to drop 35 or more points this week, the Packers are going to need all their playmakers producing. We’ll trust Reed to go over this time and balance out his bagel in his playoff debut. Remember, the Packers have gone over 400 yards on offense 3 weeks in a row, so there usually is a lot of yards to go around.
NFL Pick: Jayden Reed Receiving Yards Over 42.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
A line like 30.5 pass attempts sounds low in this era, but that is part of what makes the 49ers a special offense in 2023. Brock Purdy threw for 4,280 yards this season despite only attempting 444 passes. He led the league with 9.6 yards per pass attempt.
But that means Purdy only averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game this year. That is the lowest average of attempts per game for any quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in a season in NFL history. He beat out Steve Young for the 1993 49ers, who averaged 28.9 attempts per game.
Purdy only went over 30.5 pass attempts in 3-of-16 games this year. He attempted 30 and 29 passes in his 2 full playoff games last year against the Seahawks and Cowboys. He was obviously injured on the opening drive of the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles.
But this is what San Francisco does. The offense is so good at scheming open big plays and running the ball with Christian McCaffrey, that Purdy does not have to dink and dunk the team down the field with a lot of pass attempts. They maximize the efficiency of each attempt.
The Pick
The Packers can appreciate this as they did something similar last week with Jordan Love only throwing the ball 21 times in Dallas in a big win. But the 49ers are the masters of this, and they should have the advantage over this Green Bay defense.
Matt LaFleur may still have nightmares of Raheem Mostert rushing for over 200 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2019 NFC title game against the Packers. The 49ers may not win that way with McCaffrey here, but you never know. We’ll just trust the 49ers to keep the attempts low again for Purdy.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Passing Attempts Under 30.5 (-120) at Bet365
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