For the first time since his November 2024 Netflix circus boxing event and success over Mike Tyson, ‘The Problem Child’ Jake Paul returns to the squared circle at the Honda Center this weekend, and surprisingly, he’s selected an opponent, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who won’t be a complete walkover!
Read on for our complete betting guide, taking a first look at Paul vs. Chavez Jr., including the latest boxing betting odds from top-rated sportsbooks and our free expert best bets.
The Pick
- Paul by Decision (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Betting Odds
Event Information
- When: Saturday, June 28, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET
- Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
- Co-Main Event: Gilberto Ramirez vs. Yuniel Dorticos
- Moneyline Probability: Paul – 85.7% (-600) Chavez Jr. – 20.4% (+391)
The Tale of The Tape
| Jake Paul | Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | Country | Mexico |
| 28 | Age | 39 |
| 11-1-0 | Pro Record (Win/Loss) | 56-6-1 |
| 6’1” | Height | 6’1” |
| 76” | Reach | 73” |
| W/W/W/W/W | Win/Loss (Last 5) | W/W/L/W/L |
Paul vs. Chavez Jr. Analysis & Betting Prediction
Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley, Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz, and Mike Perry… Do you notice the trend in some of Jake Paul’s best pro boxing wins to date? You got it; he entered a niche of fighting former mixed martial artists, and more often than not, they’ve been significantly smaller and much older than the ‘Problem Child.’
This, however, shouldn’t distract you from the fact that Paul has evolved into a legitimate boxer. Sure, he might be lightyears away from having skills capable of defeating the elite, but undoubtedly, he’s not here pretending to be a boxer, despite the scrutiny on his career opponents so far.
Next to Mike Tyson, of course, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will be the most technically skilled boxer Paul has faced to date, but like ‘Iron Mike,’ who is close to 60 years old, there’s a concern around what a 39-year-old Chavez can achieve. Let’s not forget that his only fight since 2021 was against Uriah Hall, a former UFC middleweight.
So, what about Chavez during his prime fighting years? Questions have loomed over his dedication to the sport, and although he’s proclaiming that a new version of himself will turn up to fight Paul, losing to Anderson Silva, one of Paul’s many wins versus MMA fighters, isn’t shining a great light on his chances of victory.
We Can’t Trust Chavez Jr.
A Chavez Jr. from 2012-2013 would whoop Paul so badly he wouldn’t be able to return to the ring. However, it’s 2025, and the Mexican slugger hasn’t shown to be trustworthy for some time. He’ll undoubtedly have the skills to test Paul, and a knockout blow from either fighter feels doubtful, but the faster, younger Paul can certainly outwork the aging man on the scorecards.
Once again, Paul and his team know exactly what they’re doing by handpicking opponents. This time, they can proclaim their man has defeated a legitimate boxer, but we all know that age waits for no man, and the Problem Child will always need some advantage, whether it’s age or size, to avoid defeat like we saw against Tommy Fury.
Paul vs. Chavez Jr. Best Bet
The available odds are fair, with Paul’s moneyline sitting at -600. While this will be a legitimate test in terms of skill set, the alternative outside variables all favor the Problem Child, who should easily sail to a unanimous decision victory.
At the end of the day, and at this moment in time, Paul looks much bigger and faster than Chavez Jr., and this will make up for what he lacks in skill. The Mexican just hasn’t looked great over ten rounds in recent years, and while he might find success early on, Paul will take the rounds once his opponent slows down.
Boxing Pick: Paul by Decision (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
