We’ve got a full slate of games on the horizon tonight. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its assistance in finding the top three bets for tonight’s games. Here’s what it came up with.
The Picks
- Ryan Bergert Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-113)
- Addison Barger Under 0.5 Runs (-106)
- Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 Runs (-130)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model suggests Ryan Bergert will give up just 3.6 hits tonight. Yet, his hits allowed prop is set at 4.5 on Caesars, with the under at -113. There’s plenty of value on the under.
Ryan Bergert Has Been Better Against Lefties!
The Padres will start right-handed pitcher Ryan Bergert tonight. He’s struck out 30.6% of lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also added 26.8% of strikeouts overall over the last 30 days.
In addition, Bergert has held his last 56 batters to a .102 ISO and wOBA of .284. He’s been much better against lefties and will likely have to face more lefties than righties in the Phillies’ lineup tonight.
He’ll be fine against lefties. However, he’s struggled against righties over the last 30 days and throughout the season. Still, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto are two righties who have shown very little power against righties over the last 30 days. That should help Bergert stay composed and keep the hitting production down.
I’m taking Bergert to allow under 4.5 hits using the AI Model. Join me and let’s cash to start the weekend right!
MLB Pick: Ryan Bergert Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-113) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athletics
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Our AI Model thinks Addison Barger will earn .302 runs in tonight’s game against the Athletics. Meanwhile, his prop is at .5, with the under at just -106. This is a 22.4% +EV play!
Will Barger’s Luck Run Out?
Addison Barger has destroyed right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. As a matter of fact, he’s got a .324 ISO and wOBA of .410 during the previous 30 days against righties.
However, he’s also walked just 6.8% of the time during that stretch. In addition, he’s hit 44.2% of ground balls with 21.2% of fly balls. These numbers won’t allow him to maintain his dominance against right-handed pitchers.
That said, he’s facing Luis Severino of the Athletics. Severino has struggled at home this year. However, he’s still limited walks against lefties and has allowed only 21.7% of fly balls to lefties over the last 30 days.
Severino has done alright against lefties over the last 30 days. Barger might not even get on base. Take his Under.
MLB Pick: Addison Barger Under 0.5 Runs (-106) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Our AI Model predicts Heliot Ramos will record just .229 runs tonight. His runs prop is also at .5, with the under at -130. Here’s another runs prop with insane value! Let’s grab it while we can!
Heliot Ramos Could Struggle To Get On Base
The Giants will likely lead things off with Heliot Ramos. He’s a right-handed hitter who has only added a .127 ISO and has walked just 7.3% of the time.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Dustin May of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who has limited his last 46 righties to 4.3% of walks. He’s also allowed just a .122 ISO and wOBA of .240 to those previous 46 righties.
May has limited righties to just 20% of fly balls and a 2.9% barrel percentage. There’s no clear advantage for Ramos. It’s hard even to imagine he’ll get on base.
I’m on Ramos to get under .5 runs tonight.
MLB Pick: Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 Runs (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
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