Happy Independence Day!
Although it’s a Friday, there are MLB games on throughout the day as we celebrate July 4th. That said, before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, take a look at the multiple best bets I’ve added for tonight’s games and listed them below using our AI Model.
Picks Summary:Â
- Lance McCullers Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+108)
- Drew Waters Under .5 Total Bases (+110)
- Tyler Fitzgerald Under .5 Hits (+143)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 04, 2025 – 09:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model thinks Lance McCullers will give up 4.125 hits tonight. Meanwhile, his hits allowed prop is at 4.5, with the Under at +108. There’s some value with this plus-money prop!
McCullers Has Been Unlucky!
The Astros are set to throw Lance McCullers tonight. The right-hander has allowed a .444 ISO and wOBA of .492 to his last 44 batters since returning to the mound. However, he’s also added 48.3% of ground balls and has given up only 17.2% of line drives. He’s even struck out 26.3% of righties over the last 30 days.
McCullers has a big walk problem. However, that won’t hurt us at all. We’re looking at his hits prop. Ultimately, with high strikeouts against righties, high ground balls against lefties, and an overall limited amount of line drives allowed, McCullers should perform better over time.
He’s allowed a .280 BABIP over the last 30 days and has also added 24.1% of whiffs. He’s been better than his stats have shown. He’ll need to keep walks down, but again, walks won’t hurt our bet.
The Pick
Side with the AI Model and take McCullers to allow under 4.5 hits tonight.
MLB Pick: Lance McCullers Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, July 04, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model thinks Drew Waters will earn .343 total bases. Yet, his total bases prop is at .5, with the under at +110. Again, we love a good value bet that’s plus-money!
Drew Waters Is Washed!
The Kansas City Royals will take on Eduardo Rodriguez of the Diamondbacks. The left-hander has allowed a .128 ISO and wOBA of .301 to his last 104 righties. He’s also limited line drives to 17.9% and has struck out 26% of batters during that time.
He’ll battle Drew Waters, the No. 9 hitter for the Royals, who has hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .122 with 38.5% of strikeouts against lefties over the last 30 days.
Waters has faced his 13 lefties during that time and has added only 14.3% of line drives with 0% hard contact and a 0% barrel percentage. That’s amounted to a .143 BABIP against lefties over the last 30 days.
The Pick
Fade Drew Waters and take his under .5 total bases at +110.
MLB Pick: Drew Waters Under .5 Total Bases (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics
Friday, July 04, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Our AI Model predicts Tyler Fitzgerald will earn .326 hits tonight against the Athletics. But his prop is at .5, with the under juiced up to +143. Here’s another play to consider for tonight’s action.
What Happened To Tyler Fitzgerald?
The Athletics will send out JP Sears tonight. He’s a left-handed pitcher who has struggled against righties. Ultimately, he’s allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .336 with only 15.1% of ground balls induced.
He could have trouble against many Giants hitters tonight. However, Tyler Fitzgerald probably won’t be one of them. Fitzgerald has hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .177 with 46.2% of strikeouts over his last 13 at-bats against lefties. He’s also hit a 0% barrel percentage and only 20% line drives agaisnt lefties during that time.
It’s hard to trust a guy with those numbers.
The Pick
I’m on Fitzgerald’s under in hits at +143.
MLB Pick: Tyler Fitzgerald Under .5 Hits (+143) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
