BETTING

MLB Computer Picks for July 6: Hayden Birdsong Will Surprise Tonight!

Hayden Birdsong San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies
Starting pitcher Hayden Birdsong #60 of the San Francisco Giants throws against the Colorado Rockies. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

For the first time in a long time, the MLB has multiple night games on a Sunday. The Cubs-Cardinals matchup is set for 6:00 pm ET on ESPN. However, there are also two other games after that game is over. I’ve added best bets for some of the later games on the slate using the AI Model. Check it out below.

The Picks 

  • George Kirby Under 5.5 Ks (+106) 
  • Alec Burleson Under 0.5 Hits (+143) 
  • Hayden Birdsong Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-174) 

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Seattle Mariners

Sunday, July 06, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Wrigley Field

The AI Model suggests George Kirby will add 4.9 strikeouts tonight. However, his prop is at 5.5, with the under at +106 MLB odds. This is a fun plus-money bet to consider for today’s game.

Can Kirby Keep Up His Dominance?

George Kirby will take the hill for the Mariners tonight. The right-hander has struck out 32.7% of righties over the last 30 days. However, he only struck out 28.4% of righties this season and has also struggled against lefties throughout the season.

That said, the Pirates have only walked 6.3% of the time against righties. They’ll be aggressive against Kirby and look to put the ball in play. Additionally, the Pirates still have five batters who have hit an ISO of at least .152 against righties over the last month.

This will be an exciting battle, but the Pirates can certainly put the ball in play and limit strikeouts. Take Kirby to add below 5.5 strikeouts tonight against the Pirates.

MLB Pick: George Kirby Under 5.5 Ks (+106) at Caesars Sportsbook


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

Sunday, July 06, 2025 – 6:10 PM EDT at Wrigley Field

Our AI Model thinks Alec Burleson will add .502 hits tonight. However, his under .5 hits prop is at +143. That’s a +19.4% +EV bet! Grab this crazy value for tonight.

It’s Not Easy Hitting Matthew Boyd!

The Chicago Cubs will roll with Matthew Boyd tonight. He’s a left-handed pitcher who has limited his last 111 batters to a .087 ISO and wOBA of .222. Ultimately, he’s dominated lefty batters.

He’s faced 28 lefties over the last 30 days and has kept them to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .145 with 59.1% of ground balls induced during that time.

Meanwhile, he’ll take on Alec Burleson of the Cardinals, who is also a lefty. Burleson has hit just 31% of hard contact, and as a result, he’s added a .259 BABIP.

Burleson has also struggled to hit fly balls against lefties over the last 30 days. I’ll trust Boyd against Burleson and take Burleson’s under in hits at +143. That’s really good value.

MLB Pick: Alec Burleson Under .5 Hits (+143) at Caesars Sportsbook


San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics

Sunday, July 06, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park

Our AI Model predicts Hayden Birdsong will give up 3.85 hits tonight. Yet, his current prop is at 5.5 with the under at -174. That’s a large margin. Let’s take the under.

Birdsong Has A Good Matchup

Hayden Birdsong has not been perfect over the last 30 days. However, he’s facing an Athletics lineup that has six righties in it. Ultimately, Birdsong has limited his first 136 right-handed hitters to a .101 ISO and a wOBA of .281.

Plus, the righties in the Athletics’ lineup have struck out 27.7% of the time. As a matter of fact, the entire lineup has struck out 27.7% of the time over the last month, while walking only 6.3%.

Birdsong has also limited his last 57 righties to 21.1% of fly balls. Those righties have hit just a .270 BABIP, proving how effective Birdsong has been against righties.

Let’s roll with Birdsong to allow below 5.5 hits tonight.

MLB Pick: Hayden Birdsong Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-174) at Caesars Sportsbook

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

Recent Articles

Caesars
Ease of Use
5.0

Simplicity and intuitiveness of the platform's design

Welcome Bonuses
4.5

Offers available upon initial signup

App Store Rating
4.5

User ratings on the Apple App Store

Play Store Rating
4.0

User ratings on the Google Play Store

Odds Quality
4.0

How the sportsbook's odds stack up against competitors

Bet365
Odds Quality
4.7

How the sportsbook's odds stack up against competitors

Play Store Rating
4.7

User ratings on the Google Play Store

Ease of Use
4.5

Simplicity and intuitiveness of the platform's design

Welcome Bonuses
4.3

Offers available upon initial signup

App Store Rating
4.1

User ratings on the Apple App Store

BetMGM
Ease of Use
4.8

Simplicity and intuitiveness of the platform's design

Odds Quality
4.6

How the sportsbook's odds stack up against competitors

Play Store Rating
4.6

User ratings on the Google Play Store

App Store Rating
4.6

User ratings on the Apple App Store

Welcome Bonuses
4.1

Offers available upon initial signup

Join the
OddsTrader Newsletter
Table of Contents