We’ve got a full 15-game slate on the horizon in the MLB! Ultimately, there are bound to be some upsets today. Therefore, I’ve added a few underdog bets to consider, with help from the AI Model.
Picks Summary:
- Brewers ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tigers ML (-102) at Bet365
- Rockies ML (+195) at Bet365
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
The AI Model projects the Brewers will earn a 4.3-3.6 win over the Guardians tonight. However, the Brewers are currently +110 on the moneyline via Caesars. The Brewers are a fantastic underdog play for tonight.
The Brew Crew Can Hang In!
The Brewers will face Logan Allen of the Cleveland Guardians tonight. Allen has allowed a .346 wOBA to his first 163 batters, while earning only 15.3% of strikeouts and giving up 11.7% of walks.
He’s also allowed nearly 28% of fly balls and has given up 41.4% of hard contact to batters this season.
Ultimately, he’ll face a Brewers lineup that has collectively struck out only 18.5% of the time. The Brewers will put the ball in play, and good things usually happen when you do that.
On the other hand, the Brewers will roll with Quinn Priester. He’s a heavy ground ball pitcher, who will face a Guardians lineup that has hit 36.2% of ground balls when putting the ball in play. If he can get that number to increase a bit, it’ll be hard for the Guardians to find consistent success against Priester and the Brewers.
The Pick
The AI Model likes the Brewers, and so do I.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
The AI Model thinks the Tigers and Red Sox will tie at 4.2. Therefore, taking the Tigers, the home team, and slight underdogs would make sense. The Tigers are currently -103 on the moneyline and have a worse probability than the Red Sox.
Brayan Bello Isn’t Fooling Anyone!
The Red Sox will throw Brayan Bello for tonight’s game. The young righty has struck out just 13.7% of batters and has allowed 12.6% of walks this season. He’s also allowed 56.7% of hard contact and more than 25% of line drives.
The Tigers have a bunch of lefties who can take advantage of Bello, including Kerry Carpenter, Coly Keith, Riley Green, and Trey Sweeney.
Conversely, Tyler Holton will start for the Tigers. He’s a lefty who will likely face a Red Sox lineup with six righties. Holton has limited righties to a .133 ISO and wOBa of .283 this season. He’s the better pitcher, and the Tigers have the better offense analytically.
The Pick
I’ll side with the AI Model and take the Tigers at -102.
MLB Pick: Tigers ML (-102) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Our AI Model predicts the Colorado Rockies will only lose to the Texas Rangers by .1 runs. However, the Rangers are currently -230 on the moneyline, while the Rockies are +195. If the AI Model expects this game to be tight, the value is on the seven-win Rockies.
The Rangers Don’t Hit Lefties!
Kyle Freeland will take the hill for the Rockies tonight. The left-hander has held his first 182 batters to a .134 ISO and wOBA of .363, while earning 49.3% of ground balls and just 14.6% of fly balls.
He’ll battle a Rangers lineup that has hit a .062 ISO and wOBA of .255 against lefties over the last 30 days. The Texas lineup has even struck out 26.4% of the time against lefties over the last month.
On the other hand, Jack Leiter will pitch for the Rangers. He’s only struck out 18.2% of batters and has walked 11.1% of batters. The Rockies haven’t been an elite offense, but they’ve hit a .167 ISO and wOBA of .298 against righties over the last 30 days.
These are better numbers than the Rangers.
The Pick
Rock with the Rockies at +195!
MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+195) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
