With 17 games on today’s MLB slate, looking for value can get a bit overwhelming. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its best three bets for tonight’s slate and added analysis to back them up. Let’s have a night!
MLB Pick:
- Freddy Fermin Under .5 Hits (+126) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Taylor Ward Under .5 Hits (+145) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Brent Rooker Under .5 Hits (+130) at Bet365
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
The AI Model projects Freddy Fermin will record .574 hits tonight. While his consensus line is at .5, the Under is currently +126. There’s value on the Under with plus-money odds.
Colton Gordon Is In A Good Spot
The Houston Astros will give Colton Gordon his first major league start of his career. Gordon is known for high strikes and consistent pitching. That should be huge against Freddy Fermin and the Royals. The Royals’ projected lineup has hit a .047 ISO and wOBA of .248 with 5.5% of walks against lefties in the last 30 days.
Fermin has hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .212 against lefties, while striking out 25% of the time with only 5% of walks. Even against a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut, there’s no reason to trust Fermin against a lefty.
The Pick
Side with the AI Model and take Fermin to add Under .5 hits against the Astros in tonight’s ball game. We don’t have any MLB stats on Gordon, but the consensus is that he throws strikes. That will help him battle tonight.
MLB Pick: Freddy Fermin Under .5 Hits (+126) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model thinks Taylor Ward will contribute .588 hits. Yet, his hits prop is at .5, with the Under at +145. Here’s another plus-money bet to consider for tonight’s MLB action.
Taylor Ward Is Too Inconsistent!
The Angels have one of the worst lineups in the MLB. The projected lineup has hit a .283 wOBA with 28.5% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. Taylor Ward fits right in.
While he’s added a .167 ISO over the last month, he’s still earned just a .230 wOBA with 27.4% of strikeouts against righties during the previous 30 days.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has limited his first 81 righties to a .015 ISO and wOBA of .267. Vasquez has recorded 50% of round balls and has allowed 18.5% of fly balls to righties. On the other hand, Ward has earned a .170 BABIP, thanks to a 16.1% line drive percentage over the last month against righties.
The Pick
Don’t count on Ward tonight. Take his Under in hits.
MLB Pick: Taylor Ward Under .5 Hits (+145) at Bet365
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model predicts Brent Rooker will earn .79 hits tonight for the Athletics. Yet, while his hits prop is at .5, there’s value on the Under since it’s currently at +130 odds. Plus-money player props are the way to go!
Can Brent Rooker Be Stopped?
The Athletics are getting superb hitting from Brent Rooker this season. Over the last 30 days, Rooker has added a .236 ISO and wOBA of .400 against his last 80 righties.
However, he’s in line to face Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers, who has limited his first 156 batters to a .127 ISO and wOBA of .262. Yamamoto has forced 59.1% of ground balls and has allowed only 15.1% of fly balls. He’s also struck out 32.6% of right-handed batters over the last 30 days.
Rookler, on the other hand, has struck out 25% of the time over the last month against righties. While Rooker is having an outstanding season, he’ll likely struggle against Yamamoto. Most hitters do.
The Pick
Take Rooker to go Under .5 hits in tonight’s game at +130.
MLB Pick: Brent Rooker Under .5 Hits (+130) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
