There’s a ten-game slate in the MLB tonight! Therefore, I went straight to the AI Model to find some of the best value bets on the slate. Here’s what you should look for at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Sam Haggerty Under .5 Hits (+152)
- Corbin Carroll Under .5 Singles (-180)
- Bryce Harper Under .5 Runs (-135)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model suggests Sam Haggerty will earn .564 hits tonight. Yet, his line is at under .5, juiced to +152. We love a good plus-money bet!
Sam Haggerty Has No Chance!
The Rangers are leading off with Sam Haggerty right now. This is unlikely to help them win in the long term.
The right-handed speedster has only hit a .125 ISO, while hitting 52.4% of ground balls and 9.5% of fly balls against lefties in the last month. He’s also added a 0% barrel percentage with only 38.1% of hard contact against lefties over the last 30 days.
Tonight, he’ll take on Yusei Kikuchi, who has been on his A game. The lefty thrower has limited his last 96 righties to a .110 ISO and wOBA of .245 with 49.2% of ground balls and only 16.9% of line drives allowed. Kikuchi has been terrific against both sides of the plate and has pitched like a Cy Young candidate over the last 30 days.
The Pick
There’s no way I’d trust Haggerty against a super-hot Kikuchi right now. Haggerty has never been a full-time MLB player. Instead, he would hop from team to team, trying to secure the final roster spot.
Grab his under.
MLB Pick: Sam Haggerty Under .5 Hits (+152) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Our AI Model thinks Corbin Carroll will only add .232 singles tonight. That said, his line is currently at .5, with the under at -180. There’s plenty of value in fading Carroll here.
Yu Darvish Is Taking The Hill!
Yu Darvish will make his season debut tonight for the Padres.
The right-hander has been one of San Diego’s most consistent pitchers over the years. That’s expected to stay that way this season. Meanwhile, he’ll face Corbin Carroll, who has actually struck out 33.3% of the time against righties over the last 36 batters.
Darvish won’t pitch super deep in this game. But he certainly has some put-away pitches that can surprise Carroll. Against righties, Carroll has hit 23.8% of fly balls over the last 30 days. He’s also added just a 4.8% barrel percentage and has earned only a .263 BABIP.
That’s not very good.
The Pick
I’ll fade Carroll and take him to add below .5 singles tonight at -180.
MLB Pick: Corbin Carroll Under .5 Singles (-180) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 07, 2025 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Our AI Model predicts Bryce Harper will earn .369 runs tonight. His current runs prop is at .5, with the under at -135. There’s serious value here, especially since this is a +11.7% expected value bet.
Bryce Harper Doesn’t Look Great Since Returning!
Since Bryce Harper returned to the lineup, he’s hit a 0% hard contact percentage and a 0% barrel percentage against righties. He’s also added a .250 BABIP against righties during that time.
Ultimately, he’s taking on Landen Roupp of the Giants, who has allowed just a .128 ISO to his first 201 lefties this season. Roupp has also held those 201 lefties to 47.8% of ground balls and only 21.4% of fly balls.
Don’t expect Roupp to add a high amount of strikeouts against Harper and other lefties, but he’s limited lefties to a .279 BABIP thanks to the weak contact allowed.
The Pick
It’s going to be hard for Bryce Harper to even get on base. Take his under in the runs category.
MLB Pick: Bryce Harper Under .5 Runs (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
