It’s Thursday, so many teams are off with getaway days. However, there are still a handful of games on the betting board. Using the AI Model, I’ve identified some of the best underdog plays on the slate. Let’s break it down below.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Thursday, August 14, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Target Field
The AI Model likes the Detroit Tigers to add a 5.1-3.1 win over the Minnesota Twins tonight. That’s a two-run margin, meaning you can consider taking the Tigers at -2.5 at +124. It’s the same margin difference between 1.5, so there’s a strong possibility the Tigers earn a three-run win or greater against the Twins on the road.
Never Bet Against Skubal!
The Detroit Tigers will use Tarik Skubal tonight. The left-handed All-Star has struck out more than 35% of batters over the last month. He’s also walked just 5.2% of batters and has allowed a wOBA of .290 to his last 96 batters faced.
Meanwhile, he’ll face a Twins lineup that is super depleted after the MLB Trade Deadline. The Twins traded away practically their entire roster, and now the projected lineup has hit a .140 ISO and wOBA of .274 against their last 120 lefties combined.
Ober’s Struggles Against Lefties
Conversely, the Twins will use Bailey Ober, who has struggled badly against lefties as a right-handed pitcher. Ober has given up a .269 ISO and wOBA of .360 with 43.5% of fly balls and just 26.1% of ground balls induced over the last month.
Ober has also struck out just 11.1% of lefties during that stretch and has allowed 50% of hard contact overall.
The Tigers have a high strikeout rate against righties, but that shouldn’t be a problem since Ober isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher right now. The Tigers still have five batters in the lineup who have hit an ISO of at least .188 against righties over the last month. Look for the Tigers to be aggressive at the plate.
I’m with the AI Model and like the Tigers at -2.5 (+124) at Caesars with Tarik Skubal on the mound. If the Tigers are aggressive and hit well early, Skubal should be able to keep the big deficit throughout the game.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, August 14, 2025 – 8:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
The AI Model suggests the Diamondbacks will earn a 7.2-4.1 win over the Rockies on the road tonight. This is another spot where you can consider the Diamondbacks on the runline at -1.5 (-120). They’re expected to win by more than two runs!
Can Eduardo Rodriguez Shine Tonight?
The Diamondbacks will give the lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez, the ball tonight. He’s struggled against righties, but has still allowed just 22.9% of line drives to his last 96 righties. In addition, he’s given up just 35.7% of hard contact to righties over the last month.
He’s throwing a lot of balls and has walked 13.5% of his last 96 batters. If he can get his walk rate down a little bit, Rodriguez could perform better than he has recently. In addition, he’s allowed a .299 wOBA to his last 96 righties and will face a Rockies lineup filled with righties. Ultimately, he’s kept a BABIP against righties below .300, which is somewhat good.
On the other hand, it’ll be Bradley Blalock for the Colorado Rockies. Blalock is a righty who has allowed a .375 wOBA to his last 58 lefties.
He’ll battle a Diamondbacks lineup that has more lefties than righties. In addition, those five lefties have hit a .183 ISO and wOBA of .358 with 21.1% of strikeouts and 9.3% of walks. Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Alek Thomas have all hit well against righties over the last month.
The Rockies are the laughing stock of the league. Let’s take the Diamondbacks at -1.5 (-120) at BetMGM on the road tonight. The offense should explode.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
