We’re looking for more underdogs in tonight’s MLB slate. Using the AI Model, I’ve found some really good underdog plays with value that I’ll share below.
The Picks
- Marlins ML (+142) at Bet365
- Guardians -1.5 (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Angels -1.5 (+176) at Bet365
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 5:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Our AI Model thinks the Marlins will tie the Reds, 4.4-4.4. However, the Marlins are +142 on the moneyline. Since the AI Model thinks it’ll be a super close matchup, backing the Marlins at +142 is the way to go.
Why Not The Marlins?
The Cincinnati Reds have really struggled to hit righties over the last 30 days. The offense has added a .124 ISO and wOBA of .269 with its projected lineup in the previous 30 days.
That said, the Marlins will pitch Cal Quantrill. He’s been bad against righties, but has actually pitched well against lefties. The Reds should have at least four lefties, if not more, against the righties. The four lefties have struck out 24.1% of the time against righties in the last month.
On the other hand, it’ll be Nick Lodolo for the Cincinnati Reds. Lodolo is a lefty who has allowed a .300 ISO and wOBA of .381 to his last 77 righties. Ultimately, the Marlins should have a lineup of nine righties tonight. That can’t hurt!
Give me the Marlins at +142!
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+142) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Rate Field
The AI Model suggests the Guardians will win 4.8-3.3 over the White Sox tonight. Yet, you can buy the Guardians at -1.5 (+130) right now. The Model is already projecting a 1.5-run win, and we’re getting +130 odds! That’s a big-time plus-money value play.
Logan Allen Has Performed Better Recently
The Cleveland Guardians will roll with Logan Allen tonight. The left-hander has limited his last 88 righties to a .138 ISO and has induced close to 43% of ground balls. In addition, he’ll face a White Sox team that has hit a .155 ISO and wOBA of .299 over the last 30 days. That same lineup has also struck out more than 31% of the time against lefties.
Allen will face Jonathan Cannon of the White Sox. Cannon has struck out only 12.8% of batters over the last 39 at-bats. He’s also walked 12.8% of batters and has given up a wOBA of .378.
The Guardians haven’t been terrific against right-handed pitchers, but they have the easier overall matchup against Cannon. Let’s rock with the Guardians at -1.5 (+130).
MLB Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 9:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model believes the Angels will earn a 4.9-3.8 win over the Rangers. Ultimately, the Angels are expected to win by more than one run. Meanwhile, you can find the Angels at -1.5 (+176). That’s some insane value for a team expected to win by more than a run at home.
Patrick Corbin Won’t Have It Easy!
Patrick Corbin will take the hill for the Texas Rangers tonight. The left-hander has allowed a .345 wOBA to his last 81 righties and has allowed 29.5% of fly balls with only 21.3% of ground balls induced.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle an Angels lineup that has hit a .222 ISO and wOBA of .327 against lefties over the last 30 days. There’s so much power in the Angels’ lineup, and the lineup also has six batters with a wOBA of at least .321 against lefties. They’ll be prepared.
On the other hand, Jack Kochanowicz will take the hill for the Angels. He’s a righty who has delivered 53.7% of ground balls over the last month. He’s also allowed just 13.3% of line drives against his last 102 batters.
In addition, the Rangers have collectively hit a much lower ISO against righties over the last 30 days. Let’s take the Angels at -1.5 tonight.
MLB Pick: Angels -1.5 (+176) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
