Let’s see if the dogs can continue barking throughout the weekend for the MLB All-Star Break! Using the AI Model, I’ve added three underdog plays that you’ll want to consider for today’s games. Let’s get after it!
The Picks
- Rays ML (+160)
- Guardians -1.5 (+115)
- Diamondbacks ML (+100)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Our AI Model thinks Red Sox will earn a 4.6-4.3 win over the Rays at home tonight. However, the Rays are +160 on the moneyline. For a game projected to be so close, the Rays at +160 MLB odds certainly have value.
Why Is Shane Baz Getting Disrespected?
Today’s game between the Rays and Red Sox should be a good one. Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Red Sox, while Shane Baz is on the hill for the Rays.
Both have been tremendous this year. However, Baz and the Rays are +160 underdogs.
That’s way too much value for the Rays. After all, Baz has struck out 29.3% of batters over the last 30 days and has allowed just a .285 wOBA against his previous 133 batters.
On the other hand, Crochet has given up 66.2% of hard contact to his last 108 righties and will likely face a Rays lineup with nine righties in it. Those righties have only struck out 19% of the time and will make it difficult for Crochet to serve up a bunch of strikeouts.
Take the value with the Rays at +160. The AI Model knows!
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+160) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Rate Field
The AI Model suggests the Guardians will win 4.8-3.0 over the White Sox tonight. Despite a nearly two-run differential, you can buy the Guardians at -1.5 (+115) right now. We love our plus-money underdog plays over here!
The White Sox Stink!
The Chicago White Sox will likely use a projected lineup that has hit a .118 ISO and wOBA of .296 against righties over the last 30 days.
That’s not ideal, especially when going up against Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. Bibee has limited his last 123 batters to a .120 ISO and has induced 51.2% of ground balls with only 15.9% of line drives allowed.
On the flip side, the Guardians haven’t been much better offensively. But they can break out against Sean Burke of the White Sox, who has allowed a .207 ISO and wOBA of .345 to his last 94 batters faced.
The Guardians have nine lefties in the lineup, and Burke has struggled way more against lefties. I’ll side with the Guardians on the run line at +115 odds.
MLB Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 9:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model believes the Diamondbacks will add a 5.3-2.8 win over the Angels tonight. Yet, the Diamondbacks are just +100 on the moneyline. This bet has some insane value per our AI Model!
Zac Gallen’s Audition!
The Arizona Diamondbacks are certainly thinking about trading away Zac Gallen at the trade deadline. Gallen is a veteran righty who hasn’t pitched exceptionally well this season. However, he’s still struck out 25.4% of batters over the last 30 days and has walked just 5.6%.
Ultimately, Gallen hasn’t had luck on his side with balls in play. But that should change tonight with a matchup against the Angels. The projected lineup for the Angels has hit a .149 ISO and wOBA of .303 against righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, the Angels will send out lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has been terrific, but he’s facing a Diamondbacks lineup that has hit a .230 ISO and wOBA of .332.
This game could be a pitcher’s duel. But Arizona definitely has more potential in the lineup. Grab the Diamondbacks at +100.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
