Although it’s a Thursday, there are still ten games on today’s MLB slate, with eight being played at night. I reviewed all ten games and identified some intriguing underdog plays. Let’s get to it!
The Picks
- Nationals ML (+132) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Brewers ML (+136) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dodgers -2.5 (+114) at Bet365
Detroit Tigers vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, July 3, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Our AI Model believes the Tigers will escape the Nationals, 4.4-4.3. However, the Nationals are at +132 MLB odds on the moneyline at home, and are expected to be just .1 run short. There’s so much value in the Nationals, especially with Jake Irvin on the mound.
Ride With The Veteran!
The Detroit Tigers are set to pitch Dietrich Enns. He’s a lefty pitcher who has only thrown against 17 batters this season.
While he looked good against those 17 batters, it’s hard to put a lot of emphasis on these numbers.
That said, the Nationals’ projected lineup has struck out below 18% of the time, so it’s likely the Nationals will put the ball in play and give themselves many chances to score.
On the other hand, Jake Irvin will get the start for the Nationals. He’s allowed a .339 ISO and wOBA of .433, despite adding 44.7% of grounders and allowing just 18.8% of line drives over the last month. Irvin has even kept his walks down to 8.3% over the previous 30 days.
At this point, you can expect Irvin to improve drastically in July if he continues to put those numbers up. Plus, the Tigers’ projected lineup has just average stats against righties in the last 30 days.
Give the Nationals a try at home.
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+132) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 3, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The AI Model thinks the Brewers will lose to the Mets, 4.4-4.2. But there’s still value on the Brewers, who are +136 on the moneyline on the road tonight. In a projected tight game, backing the underdog is the way to go.
Quintana’s Return to Citi Field!
Jose Quintana pitched for the New York Mets before moving on to the Milwaukee Brewers. While he’s not earning strikeouts much, he’s limited his last 97 batters to a .083 ISO. Quintana isn’t giving up much power.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ lineup has hit a .068 ISO and wOBA of .197 against lefties over the last 30 days. Quintana has an advantage tonight.
He’ll compete against David Peterson, who has been very solid over the last month. However, Peterson is taking on a Brewers team that has hit a .408 wOBA against lefties over the previous month.
The Brewers dominate lefties way more. Rock with the Brewers at +136 on the road.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+136) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, July 3, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model suggests the Dodgers will earn a 6.2-3.1 win over the White Sox in tonight’s matchup. Yet, you can find the Dodgers at -2.5 (+114) on the run line. This is a good spot for a plus-money play!
Aaron Civale Is Toast!
Aaron Civale will get the start for the Chicago White Sox tonight. He originally began the season with the Brewers but requested a trade. He’s now on the White Sox and has allowed a .185 ISO and wOBA of .365 to his last 95 batters faced. He’s struggled poorly against righties and will take on at least four righties, including Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Andy Pages, and Teoscar Hernandez.
Those four should absolutely dominate.
On the other hand, Dustin May will pitch for the Dodgers. The righty has allowed a .268 ISO and wOBA of .389 over the last month. However, he’s also been a bit unlucky, since he’s added 42.5% of grounders and has limited line drives to 23.3%.
Plus, the White Sox’s projected lineup has hit a .122 ISO and wOBA of .271 over the last month. May should be fine tonight.
Grab the Dodgers at -2.5 (+114).
MLB Pick: Dodgers -2.5 (+114) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
