Today’s MLB slate is filled with games in the afternoon. Only the Mets and Braves will play at night. Therefore, I checked in with the AI Model to see if the Mets-Braves game has an underdog play. Spoiler alert: it does!
The Picks
- Mets -1.5 (+176)
- Mets Team Total Over 4.5 (+114)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Thursday, June 26, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Our AI Model believes the Mets will add a 4.5-4.0 win as slight favorites against the Braves. Therefore, you can consider the Mets at -1.5 (+176) in hopes that the Mets can tack on one more run. Additionally, consider the Mets at Over 4.5 team total (+114). That’s another interesting play for tonight’s game using the AI Model.
Can Juan Soto Continue Dominant June?
The New York Mets have a projected lineup that has hit a .261 ISO and a wOBA of .371 over the last 30 days against right-handed pitchers.
Juan Soto has been on a tear lately, and Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are also left-handed sluggers who have raked against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, they’ll take on Grant Holmes of the Braves, who has struggled against lefties over the last 30 days. Holmes has allowed a .209 ISO and wOBA of .370 with 36.7% of fly balls and only 33.3% of ground balls against lefties. He’s also allowed 54.5% hard contact overall and, again, has struggled earning swinging strikes against lefties.
Beyond that, Holmes has allowed a 12.7% barrel percentage to his last 111 batters this season. The Mets’ lineup has hit nearly 62% of hard contact against righties in the previous 30 days.
The Mets have a lot of potential in tonight’s game.
Can Griffin Canning Keep Power Down?
The Mets will pitch Griffin Canning. He’s a righty who has held his first 319 batters to a .127 ISO. He’s also added 51.6% of ground balls and has limited fly balls below 22% this year.
Over the last 30 days, it’s been more challenging for Canning. His strikeout rate has dipped, and his walk rate is higher. However, he’s still limited 109 batters to a .138 ISO and has earned nearly 47% of ground balls.
In addition, Canning will face a Braves lineup that has hit a .125 ISO and wOBA of .310. The Braves only have three players who have hit an above-average ISO and an above-average wOBA over the last 30 days against righties.
Atlanta has collectively hit only 48.7% of hard contact and just 25.3% of fly balls. They’ve also hit an 8.8% barrel percentage, which isn’t all that high, either.
Canning has had better moments earlier this season. But he certainly looks better on paper than Holmes heading into this one. Plus, Canning will be more comfortable at home, with the home crowd on his side.
After the Mets got a win yesterday, that could be a turning point for New York. They’ve been struggling on both sides of the ball, but likely just needed to see a win to get back on track.
The Picks
The AI Model thinks the Mets have some breathing room tonight, predicting a 4.5-4 win over the Braves. While the Mets are slight favorites, you can still consider the Mets at -1.5 (+176). If you’re not interested in playing a run line, the Mets at Over 4.5 (+114) is nice, especially since the Model expects the Mets to score 4.5 runs in tonight’s game.
No matter what bet you place, the Mets certainly look like the better team in tonight’s game on paper. They’ve also got the momentum. Therefore, we’ll rock with the AI Model and try these two bets for tonight’s underdog plays. Go Mets!
MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (+176) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Mets Team Total Over 4.5 (+114) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
