The Oklahoma City Thunder will travel to Indianapolis, Indiana, to face the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 of the NBA Finals.
The Thunder are the heavy favorites to win the series. However, the Pacers stunned the Thunder in Game 1 and now have home-court advantage heading into Game 3 of the series.
The Pacers held the Thunder to below 40% from the field in Game 1, but allowed the Thunder to shoot nearly 50% in Game 2. If the Pacers want to win, their defense will need to improve, and the offense will need to make shots consistently, while also dominating the rebounding game.
Let’s give it a closer look before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks.Â
Picks Summary:
- Pacers +5.5 (-110)
- Under 227.5 (-105)
- T.J. McConnell Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our AI Model believes the Thunder will only win by two points. Therefore, the Pacers at +5.5 is the best play on the board. In addition, the total is currently at 228.5, but our Model thinks the total will finish at 226. Therefore, the Under is another best bet for tonight’s game.
Lastly, our AI Model expects T.J. McConnell to record 15.2 points + rebounds + assists tonight. His current line is at 12.5, with the Over at -118. That’s another play to consider for tonight’s Game 3 showdown.
You Can’t Count Out The Pacers!
The Indiana Pacers have added series wins against the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks to get to the NBA Finals. They’ve had a remarkably tough journey and made it to the NBA Finals without even having to go to seven games in any series.
The offense has scored 118.5 points per 100 possessions, with a 58% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. They’ve scored at the second-best rate in the NBA playoffs and have the highest effective field goal percentage of any team in the playoffs.
Additionally, the Pacers have been consistently getting to the foul line. The only issue is that the Pacers aren’t taking advantage of the offensive glass. The Thunder have given up 31.4% of offensive rebounds, but the Pacers have grabbed just 23% of offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs. Indiana was out-rebounded in Game 2 of the loss, but earned more rebounds in Game 1.
If the Pacers want to win tonight, they must rebound better and limit turnovers more.
The Thunder Aren’t Shooting It That Well!
The Oklahoma City Thunder gets a lot of praise. They’re the most complete team in the NBA. However, the Thunder have still shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.1% throughout the playoffs. That’s the 10th best among playoff teams in the NBA.
Oklahoma City is keeping turnovers down while still scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions. However, the lack of offensive rebounds and poor effective field goal percentage could haunt them, especially on the road.
That said, don’t expect a dominant performance on offense from the Thunder, especially on the road in an NBA Finals environment. That’s why the Pacers at +5.5 and Under 227.5 are elite plays for tonight’s game according to our model.
T.J. McConnell Has All The Trust!
T.J. McConnell has averaged 15.7 minutes per game over the last ten games. However, in the previous two games, he’s secured at least 16.6 minutes and continues to produce at a high level when given the opportunity.
McConnell has earned at least 14 points + rebounds + assists in two consecutive games. He’s also hit this line in six of his last eight games. His usage is up to 23.5% over the previous month, and he’s had at least six potential assists in four of his previous five games, along with at least three rebound chances in three of his last four games.
The Thunder also rank 21st in total rebounds allowed to point guards and 15th in free throw attempts per game. McConnell will stay aggressive and do whatever it takes. Consider backing him to add at least 13 points + rebounds + assists in tonight’s Game 3 matchup in the NBA Finals.
NBA Picks:
- Pacers +5.5 (-110)
- Under 227.5 (-105)
- T.J. McConnell Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
