The Indiana Pacers will look to continue their remarkable run in the NBA Postseason with a Game 1 NBA Finals matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, where they enter as underdogs at top-rated sportsbooks.
The Thunder were expected to make the NBA Finals. They were easily the Western Conference’s best team and have the current MVP on the roster. However, the Pacers were never expected to get this far.
They had to face the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks to get to this point. And believe it or not, the Pacers didn’t even need seven games in any of these matchups.
The Picks
- Pacers +9.5 (-110)
- Under 230.5 (-110)
- Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
The Pacers will likely give the Thunder a run for their money. Our AI Model suggests the Pacers will only lose to the Thunder by eight points. Yet, you can find the Pacers at +9.5 at -110 odds via Caesars. That’s the best bet for this game.
Additionally, the total is at 230.5 via Caesars. However, our model predicts that there will be just 218 points scored. Therefore, the Under is an insanely valuable play heading into tonight.
Finally, if you’re looking for a player prop, think about taking Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 points + rebounds + assists. Mathurin’s projected to earn 17.5 PRA in this game, giving this play a +33.4% expected value. The model thinks he’ll cover this line 89% of the time!
The Pacers Can Contend!
The Indiana Pacers have been doubted all year long. Yet, they’re in the NBA Finals after outplaying every single team in the postseason.
The Pacers are well-connected and one of the best offenses in the NBA. In the playoffs, they’ve scored 119.7 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 58.3% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs.
Indiana has also minimized turnovers to 12.5% and has gotten to the foul line at an average clip. They’re not going to dominate the offensive glass, but they’ll move the ball around and get good shots, even against the Thunder.
Ultimately, the Thunder have limited teams to 106.2 points in the postseason and have allowed a 50.2% effective field goal percentage. If the Thunder don’t allow long rebounds or turn the ball over, they’ll get back on defense and be fine. But the moment Oklahoma City misses some shots, the Pacers should get out on the break and look for quick and easy buckets.
That should help keep the Thunder off-balanced.
The Thunder Don’t Always Take The Best Shots!
The Thunder have the league’s MVP. They’ve also scored 117.8 points per 100 possessions in the NBA postseason. But with that said, the Thunder have added just a 53.5% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. That’s good for 9th of all playoff teams.
The Thunder aren’t shooting the ball lights out. They’re just limiting turnovers and getting to the foul line at an average pace.
That said, the Pacers aren’t an elite defense. They’ve given up 115.1 points per 100 possessions, so it’s likely the Thunder will still have their way offensively. But with some poor stretches of shooting the basketball, the Pacers should be able to keep things close.
On the other hand, the Pacers will have their own challenging stretches against a Thunder team that plays defense the right way.
That’s why the Pacers against the spread and the under are the best two plays in this game.
Bennedict Mathurin Is Hot & Cold!
The Pacers got at least 24 points + rebounds + assists from Bennedict Mathurin in back-to-back games from Games 4 and 5 against the Knicks. However, he finished his last game with only five. He’s been super hot and cold. However, he’s hit at least 11 points + rebounds + assists in 85% of games this season and has added at least 11 points + rebounds + assists in all of his last three games against the Thunder.
As a matter of fact, he’s averaged more than 21 points + rebounds + assists against the Thunder in his last three games against them. Once Mathurin gets on the floor, the Pacers will have a hard time taking him off the floor. Take his Over.
NBA Pick: Pacers +9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Under 230.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
