Every year, before the NBA season gets underway, oddsmakers assign projected win totals to all 30 teams. With these, we can set expectations for the year ahead.
Typically, these totals are pretty spot-on. For example, the Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies all finished within 2.5 games of their anticipated totals in 2024-25. They weren’t the only ones to notch such narrow margins, either.
Inevitably, though, there are teams that vastly outperform expectations. The Pistons (+18.5 wins), Cavaliers (+15.5), Clippers (+14.5), and Thunder (+10.5) ranked among the league’s biggest overachievers last season.
As the 2025-26 season approaches, we decided to take a look at this year’s NBA win totals to see if we could identify a few risers ahead of time. Call your shots now, because these numbers won’t last.
Boston Celtics: Over 41.5 Wins (-104)
The Celtics have averaged roughly 58 wins over the last four seasons, so seeing this team land in the low 40s is a little jarring. It’s also perfectly understandable since Boston is expected to spend the year without Jayson Tatum, who tore his Achilles in the playoffs.
However, you can’t convince me that this team won’t be at least a shred competitive. Yes, Tatum’s absence is significant, and the frontcourt depth is worryingly thin. However, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard still make for a fairly dangerous trio.
The Celtics also picked up Anfernee Simons via trade, and while he’s somewhat inefficient from the field and a negative on defense, he’s still averaged nearly 20 points per game over the last four years in Portland.
The East should be especially forgiving this season. Don’t expect Boston to rank near the top of the standings, but don’t be surprised if this squad finishes above .500, either. Joe Mazzulla is far too good a coach for the Celtics to shrivel.
Chicago Bulls: Over 30.5 Wins (-132)
I won’t sit here and tell you that the Bulls have a good team. They finished ninth in the Eastern Conference last season and fell to the Miami Heat in the Play-In Tournament, nixing their chances of making the playoffs for the second time since 2016-17.
But here’s the thing. The Bulls aren’t bad, either. And in the East, that’s good enough to get you at least 35 wins. Chicago also finished with some positive momentum to close the regular season, going 17-10 after the All-Star break.
There are some genuinely solid pieces here, too. Josh Giddey broke out down the stretch. Nikola Vučević is a walking double-double. Coby White can score at will. And then there’s second-year wing Matas Buzelis, who came on strong in the second half of the season.
The Bulls have notched at least 31 wins in each of the last five seasons. They’re consistently mediocre, but they are consistent. I have little doubt that they’ll surpass this number.
Los Angeles Lakers: Over 46.5 Wins (-112)
The Lakers are notorious for having inflated totals and spreads – the public loves LeBron James and big brands – but this is a rare instance in which oddsmakers appear to be underrating the purple and gold.
Los Angeles went 50-32 last season, including 18-10 in games with Luka Dončić, and the roster they ended the year with was far inferior to the one it’ll have going forward. It can’t be understated what a healthy, in-shape Dončić can do for this team.
Elsewhere, the Lakers still get significant contributions from James, who averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists in 2024-25. The 40-year-old finished sixth in MVP voting.
You need more than Dončić and James to go on a deep playoff run, but on most nights, the duo is perfectly capable of racking up wins. The West is a gauntlet, but Los Angeles should be in store for 48-plus victories if all goes to plan.
San Antonio Spurs: Over 43.5 Wins (-110)
The Spurs are in the midst of their longest postseason drought in franchise history, but that should all change this year. Victor Wembanyama, still just 21, is a legitimate NBA MVP candidate, and he finally has a strong supporting cast around him.
It starts with All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox, who’s one of the best pick-and-roll passers in the league. He was injured when he came to San Antonio midway through the 2024-25 season, and he only played five games with Wembanyama before the seven-footer was sidelined by a blood clot.
There’s also reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, 2025’s No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, up-and-coming wings Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, and steady veterans Harrison Barnes, Kelly Olynyk, and Luke Kornet.
This team has the two-way talent to be genuinely disruptive. I don’t think 50 wins is out of the question, let alone 44-plus. As long as Wembanyama stays healthy, the sky is the limit.
Toronto Raptors: Over 37.5 Wins (-117)
Toronto is another one of those teams that looks poised for a breakout. They won just 30 games in 2024-25, but a more well-rounded roster (and a weaker Eastern Conference) should help guide them to greater heights this season.
Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley were already a solid, young trio, health notwithstanding. But Toronto has since added All-Star forward Brandon Ingram to the mix, and third-year guard Gradey Dick made significant progress this past year.
The Raptors still have some things to figure out – the second unit isn’t particularly strong – but this team is greater than the sum of its parts, and Ingram may well be the missing piece.
I’d prefer a slightly lower total to work with, but again, this is a weak East. Toronto has what it takes to hover around the .500 mark.
