With wins tonight, the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves will advance to the Conference Finals.
The Knicks will take on a Celtics team that no longer has Jayson Tatum, who ruptured his Achilles in Game 4. On the other hand, the Timberwolves will play a home game against a Warriors team that still doesn’t have Stephen Curry back. Losing star players in the playoffs stinks, but the show must continue.
I’ve added two player props using our AI Model for tonight’s two matchups. Take a look below and consider tailing if you agree with the Model and my analysis!
The Picks
- Kristaps Porzingis Under 15.5 Points (-112)
- Rudy Gobert Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 7:00 PM EDT at TD Garden
The AI Model believes Kristaps Porzingis will contribute only 7.606 points against the Knicks. Porzingis has been quiet in this series due to an illness. But he’s expected to start for the Celtics with Tatum out. Our AI Model doesn’t seem to care. You can find his under in points at 15.5 (-112) right now.
Porzingis Hasn’t Played Much For The Celtics
Kristaps Porzingis was expected to be an x-factor for the Celtics this season and a major part of a championship team.
Ultimately, he’s played no more than 19 minutes in three of four games against the Knicks in this series.
He played 24.3 minutes in Game 4, but still managed just seven points against the Knicks. In this series, he finished with no points in Game 1 and hasn’t scored more than eight points in any game this series.
The minutes will increase, but I’m not so sure his usage will. After all, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard are likely the primary offensive weapons for the Celtics heading into Game 5.
Meanwhile, Porzingis has shot 27.8% from the floor over the last ten games. He’s also shot just 17.9% from the three-point line.
Porzingis has been incredibly bad around the rim and can’t find his three-point shot. It’s one of the reasons why he hasn’t gotten many minutes with the Celtics in this playoff series. I’m sure his illness has something to do with this, but the other reason for his benching is likely due to his unacceptable results.
A Risky Start
Porzingis will likely play more with Jayson Tatum out. But it’s yet to be seen if he’ll even start. The Celtics could elect to go smaller early and play Pritchard over Porzingis to start the game. Pritchard has been much more of an offensive weapon than Porzingis has over the course of the series.
Let’s take Porzingis to score under 15.5 points tonight.
NBA Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Under 15.5 Points (-112) at Caesars Sportsbook
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, May 14, 2025 – 9:30 PM EDT at Target Center
The AI Model likes Rudy Gobert to add at 24.06 points + rebounds + assists in tonight’s game against the Warriors. Ultimately, his prop is at 19.5, with the over at -115. That’s a steal according to our model!Â
Rudy Gobert Will Be More Involved!
Since Steph Curry got injured, the Warriors have been trying new adjustments throughout the series. They’ve tried going small and big and finally decided to start Trayce Jackson-Davis at the center to compete against Gobert.
It’s worked. In Game 4, Gobert scored only 15 points, rebounds, and assists and played nearly 30 minutes. His usage was the lowest it had been all series. However, he still had 21 potential rebounds.
In fact, he’s had at least 21 potential rebounds in three of the four games in this series. That won’t change. But I’d expect he’ll be used more on offense.
A Double-Double Gets It Done
If Gobert gets a double-double, he’ll finish with at least 20 points + rebounds + assists. But even then, he can add a few buckets, dominate the glass, and still record at least 20 points + rebounds + assists.
After all, the Warriors rank 28th in rebounds allowed to centers. That’s where Gobert will have to do well to get the over.
With so many potential opportunities on the glass, I’ll trust him.
Let’s ride with Gobert to earn at least 20 points + rebounds + assists tonight. He might not even end up with an assist, but he’s had potential assists here and there over the last ten games.
NBA Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
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