For this week’s football predictions, we have NFL picks Week 11 for what looks like the best Sunday on the 2025 schedule. It was hard to narrow things down to 3 games, but we have our top NFL bets for the most marquee games.
NFL Picks Week 11 At-a-Glance
Our NFL picks for Week 11 include the total in Buffalo, Kansas City trying to reclaim the AFC West in Denver, and the Lions have a great shot at an upset in Philadelphia for NFC supremacy.
But let’s start in Buffalo, where the Bills and Buccaneers will look to avoid another loss.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills (Bills -5.5)
We have a very interesting NFL matchup here between 6-3 teams who are both coming off a loss.
The Buccaneers are looking a bit shaky without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, as Baker Mayfield’s efficiency has really dropped this year with those injuries. The Bucs have also regressed from No. 1 on 3rd down offense to No. 24 this year.
Meanwhile, the Bills have regressed in turnovers as they already have turned it over 8 times in 3 losses after having 8 giveaways in all 20 games (playoffs included) last season. Josh Allen is coming off a very poor game in Miami with multiple turnovers, and the defense was shredded on the ground again.
The over 48.5 points makes sense here as you like to think Buffalo can get to 30 and Tampa can at least get to 20 with Baker. However, the Bills rarely lose 2 straight, and since 2023, the over is just 4-8 after a Buffalo loss.
We’ll take the under 48 points as our best pick for this game with a strong lean towards Buffalo winning.
Expert Pick: Buccaneers-Bills Under 48 (-110) at BetMGM
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (Broncos +4)
This is probably the biggest matchup the Broncos have had in the regular season in a full decade.
In fact, 2015 is the last time the Chiefs didn’t win the AFC West, but that could be at stake here with the Chiefs 5-4 and the Broncos 8-2. Kansas City is 0-4 in close games this year, while Bo Nix has led 4 comebacks in the 4th quarter for Denver.
But the buck stops here.
The Chiefs should be able to win on the road after their bye week by taking advantage of Nix’s poor throws and possibly getting some interceptions on defense as you can’t get many sacks on Denver.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes will know he can’t hold the ball like he did in Buffalo. He’ll be looking to get it out fast against a defense that is killing it with 46 sacks.
Also, the Broncos are unlikely to have top corner Patrick Surtain II and top rusher J.K. Dobbins because of injuries. That makes it easier for Mahomes to target his receivers on quick throws and puts more on Nix. The Chiefs need to capitalize on this matchup if they want to still be a Super Bowl favorite, so we’ll trust them to cover on the road.
Expert Pick: Chiefs -4 (-110) at BetMGM
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -2.5)
This was supposed to be the elite matchup in last year’s NFC Championship Game, but it never happened.
We finally get to see it this Sunday night, and the Lions come in hot after scoring on their first 8 drives in Washington with Dan Campbell calling the plays for the offense. Jared Goff is playing great, but he’ll need to step up on the road after previous losses to the Packers and Chiefs this year.
However, the Eagles (7-2) are a hard team to figure out this year.
They’re still winning the close games, but they rarely look good from half to half. They aren’t throwing the ball to A.J. Brown, they are rarely going deep, and those are things you need to do against a depleted Detroit secondary.
We’ve seen the Lions go on the road and bully the Ravens this year. Let’s go with a similar result in Philadelphia, where Campbell’s offense is too explosive for Jalen Hurts and company to keep up. Detroit takes this one in the NFC.
Expert Pick: Lions +2.5 (-105) at BetMGM
Place Your Week 11 NFL Bets Now!
For our NFL picks Week 11, our most anticipated game is Sunday night, where we like the Lions to cover the spread and likely win outright in Philadelphia. We also recommend the under to hit in Buccaneers vs. Bills and for the Chiefs to cover in Denver for this great Sunday NFL schedule.
Timing is critical in sports betting. You have to stay on top of things as any little injury news could shake up the spread. That’s easier to do if you download the free OddsTrader app, which will help you find the best odds and lines at top-rated sportsbooks.
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