It’s Game Five of the Western Conference final tonight as the Edmonton Oilers head back to the American Airlines Center with a 3-1 series lead over the Dallas Stars.
Last night, the Florida Panthers confirmed their 3rd appearance in a row in the Stanley Cup finals with a 4-1 series win over the Carolina Hurricanes. Florida will play one of these two teams in the finals, and right now it’s looking like the Edmonton Oilers.
Tonight, we are targeting the total in this NHL matchup as well as a side player prop pick at plus money, which we believe holds some strong value.
The Picks
- Over 5.5 (+100)
- Jason Robertson Over 2.5 Shots (+145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars
Thursday, May 29, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
The End Is In Sight For Edmonton
It’s still all to play for in this series. Still, the Edmonton Oilers are now only one victory in three games away from heading into the Stanley Cup Final, and now that they know who they are facing in the finals, it might spur them on to get the win tonight so they can get the most important series of this post-season underway.
Edmonton has been the much better team throughout the first four games and has done enough to warrant a 3-1 series lead. Defensively, the Oilers have put up some remarkable performances, having allowed the Dallas Stars to score just two goals in their previous 3 games (the Stars scored six goals in game one of the series).
We expect the Oilers to meet the Panthers in the Stanley Cup finals. They might not get the job done tonight, but it’s hard to believe the Oilers will lose three games on the bounce (something they have done only twice all season, and the first time was the first three games of their entire season).
Dallas Will Fight Hard Tonight
With that being said, the Dallas Stars are back on home ice, where they have gone 7-2 thus far throughout these playoffs, losing game number 1 and game 9. Having suffered their first defeat at home in 8 games last time against the Oilers by a scoreline of 0-3.
The Stars are back on home ice tonight and will look to take the series back to Edmonton with a strong home record thus far. The Stars were shut out last time at home, and with just two goals in the previous three games, they will look to get their offence going.
Edmonton & Dallas Trends & Facts
- Edmonton is 11-2 in its last 13 games.
- The total has gone under in 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas.
- The total has gone under in 5 of Dallas’ last 7 games.
- Edmonton is 7-3 in its last 10 games against Dallas.
- Edmonton has claimed an upset victory 13 times when playing as the moneyline underdog this season (in 23 games as the underdog).
- Dallas and its opponent have combined to score more than 6 goals in 53 of 99 games this season.
The Pick
Tonight’s matchup feels like a Dallas Stars victory, but the top-rated sportsbooks are on the case as they have them heavily juiced to win this game at -145. We like a Dallas win here, but see no value in betting them on the moneyline.
Our computer is predicting a 4-3 Oilers victory, and we do believe the over is worth targeting considering its current plus money at +100 NHL betting odds. The Oilers’ goaltending has been on fire for the past three games, and we can’t see a repeat performance, especially as the Stars will be eager to get their offence going tonight.
Take the over 5.5 goals here as it represents the best value, betable down to -115.
NHL Pick: Over 5.5 (+100) at Bet365
Player Prop Pick
Although Jason Robertson was one of the key players for Dallas this season offensively, he hasn’t been that strong this postseason. Yes, he was injured for a few games, but still only managed 4 points in 10 games with 1.9 shots per game.
We feel Robertson will get more ice time tonight in the Stars’ desperate need to generate offense, and Robertson’s over 2.5 shots line seems like a very good set of odds at +145.
We would happily bet this down to +115. Robertson had only 11 shots in 8 games prior to the previous two games, where he had 4 and 5 shots. We expect Robertson to remain hot, and don’t be surprised if he also hits the over 3.5 shots line at +230.
Player Prop Pick: Jason Robertson Over 2.5 Shots (+145) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
