The Nuggets and Thunder have been involved in an epic second-round series. The Nuggets punched first, but the Thunder responded at home and pushed the series to 1-1 after two games.
When the Nuggets came home, Denver won the first game, but again, the Thunder responded with a win of their own. Now, the series is currently tied at two. Whoever wins tonight will be in a great spot heading into Game 6 on Thursday.
Ultimately, the Thunder still have home-court advantage. But we’ve seen in other NBA playoff series that it doesn’t really matter.
While the Thunder had more wins than the Nuggets this season, the Nuggets certainly have more playoff experience, having won an NBA Title not too long ago.
In this series, Nikola Jokic has shot below 40% from the field and has hit 21.4% from downtown. He’s been superb on the glass, but hasn’t broken out in this series. That’s hurt the Nuggets so far.
Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 27.5 points in this series, while also shooting just 21.1% from downtown. He’s added 9.3 foul shots per game in this series but shot 47.5% from the field. He’s been the better overall player in this series.
Will that be enough to help the Thunder win in Game 5? Let’s give it a look before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
- Nuggets +10.5 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Russell Westbrook Over 10.5 Points (-102)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, May 13, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
The AI Model thinks the Thunder will win. However, it also believes the Nuggets will cover a 10.5-point spread with a seven-point loss. In addition, the AI Model also believes that Under 221 will hit, as it suggests that both teams will combine for 219 points in this game.
One player prop that the AI Model likes is Russell Westbrook to add at least 11 points. The model believes Westbrook will score 13.569 points, but his prop is currently at 10.5, with the Over at +102. There’s plenty of value there.
The Nuggets Must Stay Aggressive!
The Nuggets have only shot a 52.8% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. They’ve also turned the ball over 15.1% of the time and have scored only 111.9 points per 100 possessions. This type of offense won’t win a championship.
However, the Nuggets can stick around in this game by getting to the foul line. The Thunder rank 18th in the playoffs in free-throw rate, allowing a 24.5 free-throw rate this season. The Nuggets made as many foul shots as field goals in Game 4, just to show you how important it’ll be for the Nuggets to get to the foul line in Game 5.
As long as the Nuggets are aggressive enough and consistently get to the foul line against the Thunder, they’ll likely stick around in this game and at least cover the hefty 10.5-point spread.
The Thunder Aren’t Getting Good Looks!
The Thunder have scored 117.6 points per 100 possessions, which is third-best in the NBA. They’ve been able to limit turnovers to 9.7%, which is the main reason for the high points per 100 possession number.
That said, the Thunder have shot a 51.7% effective field goal percentage and have gained below 30% of offensive rebounds. Oklahoma City isn’t hitting a high volume of shots and also isn’t nearly as good on the offensive glass as the Nuggets. That should hurt them down the stretch and should help the Under cash in.
Can Russell Westbrook Rebound From Two Poor Games?
Russell Westbrook loves the spotlight. He also secretly enjoys it when a whole stadium is against him. When on the road against the Thunder, Westbrook scored at least 18 points in the first two games of this series.
He struggled at home, scoring no more than eight points in either game. But we’re returning to Oklahoma City, where Westbrook had great success. In addition, Westbrook has scored at least 11 points in seven of his last ten games. He’s also averaged more than 25 minutes per game in those last ten games.
The Pick
Consider playing all three of these bets straight or you can even use a same-game parlay for a much bigger payout.
The AI Model loves the Nuggets at +10.5 and expects the Under to hit. Despite needing the Under to hit, we’ll also still be rooting for Westbrook to earn at least 11 points. That wouldn’t derail the under at all.
- Nuggets +10.5 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Russell Westbrook Over 10.5 Points (-102)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
