We know the NFL is a passing league where quarterbacks make the most money and wide receivers are catching up as arguably the 2nd-most expensive position if you want to pay for quality and quantity like the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals have done.
But there also was a shift back to workhorse running backs in the 2024 season with Derrick Henry (Ravens) and Saquon Barkley (Eagles) leading the way. We know today’s quarterbacks are also the most athletic group that like to run themselves, so that can take away from their passing yardage totals.
Despite a fairly good year health wise in 2024, we had just 6 quarterbacks surpass 4,000 passing yards, the fewest in an NFL season since 2010 when there were 5. There were often 10 or 12 such quarterbacks in other recent seasons.
Another factor here may be the way the dynamic kickoff rule change for 2024 led to touchbacks starting teams at their 30 instead of the 25, so frequently starting drives 5 yards closer to the end zone could add up over 17 games in lost yardage gained. Just something to consider.
Still, it’s a little surprising to look at the player props for passing yards in the futures bets at Bet365 and only see Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes with over/under lines that start above 4,000 yards.
With that in mind, let’s look at 4 of our favorite value picks this season for the passing yardage market at the top-rated sportsbooks.
The Picks
- Aaron Rodgers Over 3300.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Bo Nix Over 3475.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Jayden Daniels Over 3400.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Josh Allen Over 3749.5 Passing Yards (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)
Over/Under 3300.5 Passing Yards
There are some offseason stories that annoyingly linger on for months, like how Brandon Aiyuk was supposed to get traded in 2024 before he ended up getting paid to stay in San Francisco. This year’s months-long saga was Aaron Rodgers signing in Pittsburgh, but he seems to have finally made it official on Thursday.
So, you look at the passing yardage line for Rodgers and it is seemingly a bet on his durability. A line of 3300.5 isn’t much for him when you consider the following:
- In 17 seasons as a starter, Rodgers has passed for at least 3,695 yards, including 16 seasons with over 3,800 yards.
- The only seasons where Rodgers finished under were 2013 and 2017 when he missed half of those seasons with a collarbone injury, and obviously in 2023 when he tore his Achilles on the opening drive of the season with the Jets.
- The Steelers got 3,588 passing yards out of the starting duo of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson in 2024, and they would likely throw the ball more with Rodgers this year.
You can criticize the receiving moves the Steelers made after trading George Pickens to Dallas and not using a Day 2 draft pick on the position, which they usually do and do well to find starting receivers. Instead, it’s basically D.K. Metcalf or bust for this unit, but they did sign a vet like Robert Woods, and they could still add someone like Gabe Davis.
The Steelers also have solid tight ends in Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington even if Rodgers isn’t particularly fond of feeding his tight ends in the passing game, nor is offensive coordinator Arthur Smith a big fan of tight ends not named Jonnu Smith. But there is enough here for Rodgers to break 3,300 yards.
It comes down to the concern that he’ll get injured and miss too much time. That’s always a concern with the over on any season yardage prop for any player, but some players carry more injury risk, and Rodgers is someone who has had 3 major injuries in his career.
Old But Not Done
However, the elephant in the room is his age.
Rodgers will turn 42 this season, and only Tom Brady has played at a high level at quarterback in the NFL at that age. In fact, Vinny Testaverde is the only other quarterback to throw over 60 passes in a season at this stage of his career, and that didn’t go well.
Still, there is some survivorship bias here. Are 42-year-old quarterbacks not named Brady incapable of throwing for 3,000 yards, or have very few outside of Brady and Testaverde even tried to be a starting quarterback at this age? Players like Peyton Manning, Steve Young, Joe Montana, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Ben Roethlisberger all retired in that 39-41 range.
The fact that Rodgers didn’t just retire is comforting. He also wasn’t nearly as bad as his team’s record in 2024 as the Jets blew a league-high 6 leads in the 4th quarter. He still threw for 3,897 yards and lasted all 17 games for the team.
I think Rodgers beats the odds of old quarterbacks flopping and starts enough games to clear the over on his passing yards in what could be his final season.
NFL Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 3300.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Bo Nix (Broncos)
Over/Under 3475.5 Passing Yards
The passing lines for Bo Nix sure feel skeptical of how well his rookie season actually went for Sean Payton’s Broncos. Nix already passed for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns as a rookie, very solid numbers that used to be unobtainable for a rookie for much of NFL history.
Having a 17th game helps, but he’ll have that in 2025 too. Since he plays in the AFC West with the Chiefs, it’s also likely he’ll need to play that out instead of resting starters for the playoffs, as the Chiefs have won every AFC West title since 2016.
But if there was going to be a year where Nix didn’t throw for over 3,475 yards, it should have been last year, when he was a rookie who got off to a poor start. He was also on a team that ranked No. 4 in yards per drive and No. 1 in points allowed per drive, so they were geared towards leaning on the defense.
Expect More in 2025
In Year 2, you should expect Payton to open more things up for Nix, who finished the 2024 regular season on a high note. He had 5 games with at least 260 passing yards after Week 10, after doing so once in the first 10 games of the season.
We know Payton had Drew Brees in New Orleans where it was often a 5,000-yard passing season. No one is putting Nix on Brees’ level right now, but it is in Payton’s nature to lean on his quarterback to move the offense, and even though the Broncos drafted a running back, they’re still better suited for throwing the ball than they are running it.
Unless something disastrous happens to Nix’s development this season, he should eclipse the over on his passing line for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Bo Nix Over 3475.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Jayden Daniels (Commanders)
Over/Under 3400.5 Passing Yards
The potential is sky high for Jayden Daniels, who had the greatest rookie quarterback season ever. If there was a quarterback who could throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season, it’s either Daniels or Lamar Jackson right now.
But as a rookie, Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and rushed for 891 yards. Those numbers could have been stronger, as there was the rib injury against Carolina (a poor defense) that knocked him out after 2 passes, and he only threw 12 passes against Dallas in Week 18 in a game Washington didn’t necessarily need to win.
However, part of Daniels’ development could actually be running less and throwing more in Year 2.
More Weapons, Same Magic
Passing is how you maintain a long career in the NFL at quarterback, so those plays where he bailed last year, he may be further along this season where he’s finding the checkdown and getting yards that way. Let Deebo Samuel run over someone for YAC instead of trying to avoid a tackle yourself.
It’s that addition of Samuel, a proven YAC machine, that could make this offense even better, and they also traded for a veteran left tackle with multiple Pro Bowls, like Laremy Tunsil, to shore up the line.
Daniels did such a great job of elevating the talent around him last year, and they’ve added more talent around him this offseason. They didn’t do the greatest job beefing up the defense, so that side of the ball could be a struggle again in 2025. But that just means more opportunities for Daniels to keep throwing and scoring points, which he did at such a high level in Year 1.
Similar to the Bo Nix case, we’re just looking for a player in a good position to do what he did last year as a rookie as that’s plenty enough to clear the over 3,400 passing yards. Daniels is capable of much more.
NFL Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 3400.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Josh Allen (Bills)
Over/Under 3749.5 Passing Yards
Josh Allen’s line (O/U 3749.5 passing yards) is one of the closest to the player’s actual 2024 line when he threw for 3,731 yards. But keep in mind he only made a brief appearance in Week 18 to get credit for his start streak before he left the game without throwing a pass, or he otherwise may have had another 4,000-yard passing season.
It was a bit ironic that Allen won his 1st MVP award for a season where the Bills actually relied on him less in 2024. He passed for at least 253.3 passing yards per game in the previous 4 seasons, but in 2024, Allen only averaged 233.2 passing yards per game, and that’s even with excluding Week 18 entirely. His rushing numbers were also down a little from 2021-23.
Part of this change started in 2023 when the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midway through the season and promoted Joe Brady, who returns in that role. He calls a more balanced game with the run and getting James Cook more involved, but Allen can still obviously throw for his share of yards.
It All Helps Allen
However, this pick is banking on the expectations that Allen actually has plenty of room to grow in this offense with Brady and some young receivers (Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid) who didn’t play their best last year. Maybe Kincaid just needs to get healthier as his numbers dropped from a strong rookie year, and Coleman will hopefully step up in Year 2. But they didn’t get much out of Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper as veteran acquisitions.
The Bills still have a strong offensive line to keep them balanced, but you should be expecting Allen to throw the ball more this season and gain more yards than he did in 2024. Keep in mind the Bills had elite field position last year, which also suppressed the yardage a little. They usually do well in that stat, but they should regress a little.
Turnover regression is the other big thing to look out for with this offense after no one but Allen lost a fumble all season for Buffalo in 20 games (playoffs included). If they turn the ball over more, that could lead to more game scripts that call for more passing, and thus more passing yards for Allen.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen Over 3749.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
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