NFL Pick: 2023 Seattle Seahawks Under 9.5 Wins (-150) at BetRivers
The Seattle Seahawks were thought to be in a rebuilding year with the cornerstones of their 2012 draft, quarterback Russell Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner, both going to new teams. The Seahawks were given an over/under win total of just 5.5 wins last year by the top sportsbooks.
To the shock of maybe even Pete Carroll himself, the Seahawks hit that over by Week 9 with a 6-3 start. But after some struggles, the Seahawks needed a lot of help to make the playoffs with their 9-8 record as a No. 7 wild card.
They got the help, and they promptly were swept 3-0 by the 49ers to end their season. But it was a successful Comeback Player of the Year season for Geno Smith, who vastly outplayed what Wilson did in Denver. If the 49ers are to slip up this year in the NFC West, Seattle is the team best equipped to step into that top spot.
But is 9.5 wins too high of a line for this team this year? The NFC lacks great teams, but there may be a lot of mediocrity battling for that 2nd tier, and that is still where the Seahawks should be viewed for now.
Significant Changes
The Seahawks had some hard choices to make with a pair of draft picks in the top 20 selections in April. They split the picks on offense and defense, but were they the right choices?
Defense Favors the Certain Over the Uncertain
The Seahawks have not had a top-10 defense since 2016, and that streak may continue this year too. The team did bring back some veterans in Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed, but they are past their primes.
The draft presented an opportunity to take an elite talent with the No. 5 pick. One thought was defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who many analysts thought was the best defender in this draft. Certainly, the best interior lineman. But he did carry that baggage off the field that scared some teams away, which is why Carter slipped to Philadelphia at No. 9.
It probably will be a steal for the Eagles, who already had the best pass rush last year, but we will see just how motivated he remains in the NFL. The Seahawks opted for corner Devon Witherspoon, who was not a slam dunk for being the first corner off the board, but it is a hard pick to argue with if corner was the position you wanted to target.
But Sauce Gardner with the Jets last year was an outlier for how well these players usually play as rookies. It is hard to see Witherspoon being the answer this team needs to shut down the Cooper Kupps and Deebo Samuels of the NFL.
Is Another Weapon the Key to Keeping Geno at Pro Bowl Level?
The Seahawks will have to be led by offense again in 2023. No one imagined Geno Smith would have led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and threw 30 touchdown passes to legitimately make the Pro Bowl last year.
A breakout year in Year 10 almost never happens, but Smith has had a weird career arc. You could argue 2022 was only his 3rd real opportunity as a full-time starter, and he ran with it.
But Smith also saw his numbers decline late in the season, and the Seahawks failed to score more than 24 points in their final 6 games. With this defense, that will not cut it next season.
Injury Setbacks
One way to get better is for Kenneth Walker to stay out of the injury list at running back, but the Seahawks ended up using their No. 20 pick on wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Ohio State project was the first wideout off the board, and many considered him the best prospect available in this class.
He has already looked good in the preseason, though now he has a broken wrist that could keep him out a month. That is a bummer as one of Seattle’s most important games could be in Week 2 in Detroit. Remember, winning in Detroit last year was crucial to getting that final playoff spot. It feels unlikely the Lions are going to drop another 48-45 game at home, especially a game where they never led despite that high score.
Smith-Njigba should be a nice pick for the long-term success of the Seahawks, especially with Tyler Lockett’s age and the always-swirling trade rumors for DK Metcalf. But he is a No. 3 wide receiver in this offense, and his injury will only set him back more.
The Schedule and Pick
The Seahawks barely outscored their opponents last year (407-401), and it was a pair of 4th-quarter comeback wins (rare for Geno) against the Rams that prevented both teams from finishing 7-10 and out of the playoffs. Sweeping the Cardinals (Week 7) should happen again, but the Seahawks doing better than 3-3 in the division feels unrealistic.
The NFC has the top tier of the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers. The Saints have a cakewalk schedule that should help them win the NFC South this year. That could only leave 3 playoff spots for the Seahawks to battle with the Falcons, Giants, Commanders, and the whole NFC North.
Seattle’s games against Cincinnati (Week 6), Baltimore (Week 9), and Dallas (Week 13) are all on the road. They at least get the Eagles at home in Week 15, but Philadelphia’s style will travel. Remember, the only playoff teams the Seahawks beat last year were the Chargers and Giants during their best quarter of the season.
Smith turning into a consistent Pro Bowl quarterback and outplaying Russell Wilson for the rest of their careers would be a funny and wild story, but count me against it. Things played out that way last year, but both teams could end up finishing 8-9 this season.
Take the under for your NFL picks as a rookie corner and No. 3 wideout does not sound like enough for double-digit wins.
NFL Pick: 2023 Seattle Seahawks Under 9.5 Wins (-150) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: Geno Goes Wild
When the Seahawks upset Russell Wilson and his new Denver team on opening night, there was a lot of thought that it would just be an outlier for these teams. The Seahawks were extra motivated to stick it to Wilson for getting traded to Denver, the Broncos called a horrible game in the red zone, and they completely botched the final drive in a 17-16 loss.
Geno Smith looking good was unexpected, but that wouldn’t last, right? A week later, the Seahawks failed to score an offensive touchdown against the 49ers in a 27-7 loss. Back to reality, right? Well, the Seahawks were up and down during a 2-3 start as expected, but then came their only winning quarter of the season.
Ups, Downs, and Playoff Hopes
During a 4-game winning streak, the Seahawks swept a bad Arizona team, ran wild on the Chargers, and crushed the Giants at home. Along the way, we started to see that Smith was in fact accurate and comfortable in this offense, the Seahawks discovered the great potential of rookie back Kenneth Walker, and the defense had by far its best stretch of the season. According to Pro Football Reference, the Seattle defense had 4 of its top 5 games in expected points added (EPA) in Weeks 6-9.
But that was really the peak of the season for Seattle. The team looked bad overseas in a loss to the Buccaneers. The Seahawks blew a late lead at home in a 40-34 overtime loss to the Raiders. The only thing worse than that was losing 30-24 at home to the Panthers and Sam Darnold.
Walker went from looking like the Offensive Rookie of the Year to someone who was injured and trying to play through it. In Weeks 10-15, Walker rushed for 126 yards in 4 games combined and missed a 5th game entirely. He would get back on track with a trio of 100-yard rushing games to end the regular season, but Smith started to struggle during this period when the run was ineffective.
After losing 24-10 in frigid Kansas City, the 7-8 Seahawks needed to win out and still get some help. They beat the Jets, who couldn’t score late in the year, and then came back in the fourth quarter to beat the Rams in overtime on the final day of the regular season.
But the Seahawks still needed Detroit to beat Green Bay that night to earn the No. 7 seed with a 9-8 record. The Lions came through for them, giving Seattle the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to that wild 48-45 win in Detroit in Week 4.
Seahawks Playoff Run Ends
Seattle’s prize was a 3rd attempt at the 49ers in San Francisco on wild card weekend, meaning we’d see Smith make his first playoff start against the defense that stymied this Seattle offense twice already.
Seattle played well early and even led 17-16 at halftime. But a strip-sack of Smith in scoring range in the 3rd quarter led to a scoring run with the 49ers eventually winning 41-23.
The season was over, but it was a playoff season no one really expected. Now the question is can we trust this team to improve on this performance, or will we see the Seahawks fall back to the pack?
