The Western Conference Finals continue, and we can expect another exciting game tonight when the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder. Can the Timberwolves tie the series with a win tonight? Let’s take advantage of the OddsTrader’s computer projections to find winning NBA picks at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
- Aaron Wiggins Over 7.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100)
- Isaiah Joe over 5.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100)
- Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Blocks (+110)
*All odds from BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Monday, May 26, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Target Center
The OddsTrader computer has this game with the final score of 109-108 in favor of the Oklahoma City Thunder. With the Minnesota Timberwolves catching 3.5 points, however, this gives the Minnesota Timberwolves an edge. They have a 57% cover probability and an expected value of +4.9% on this bet.
With the Timberwolves coming off a 42-point win at home, it’s easy to see why the computer likes the Timberwolves to continue to look good in Minnesota tonight.
No Shock Here
This pick does not surprise me at all.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have the rebounding edge and can play good defense. They also got a much friendlier whistle at home and finally found their 3-point shooting stroke. This is why home-court advantage is key.
Both of these teams will look so much better on their home floor. After looking listless in the first two games, the Timberwolves found life in Game 3 in front of their home crowd. We can expect more home cooking tonight. Our first play is going to be on the Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5.
Go Low
The OddsTrader computer also shows a slight edge to the Under.
However, this edge is much smaller, with only a 54% cover probability and an expected value of +1.2%. The computer projections do have this as two points under the consensus line, so if you’re going to play a total in this one, the Under is the way to look.
Not All Heroes Are Starters
Once again, the biggest edge the OddsTrader computer found is not on a side or a total but on the player props.
The computer encourages you to target Isaiah Joe on his points, rebounds and assist prop. The number is currently placed at 5.5 and the computer has him projected 8.17 points, rebounds and assists. This gives us an 85% cover probability with a ROI of an eye-popping +35.4% expected value.
This is the type of edge we are looking for when using the computer projections.
However, the computer is also targeting another Thunder role player on the points, rebounds and assists. Aaron Wiggins‘ line is set at 7.5 points, rebounds, and assists. The computer has him projected at 11.11 points, rebounds and assists. Once again, we have an excellent mathematical edge with an 81% cover probability and a +31.2% expected value. The old adage is that role players play better at home, but the computer thinks that these Thunder role players are being undervalued.
Wiggins’ strong play on the defensive end could earn him more minutes tonight. With role players, their minutes are much more varied, and therefore, a slight uptick in minutes could equal a huge surge in the percentage of their statistical production. With the Thunder needing Wiggins’ point of attack defense, he should get more minutes than usual, which is why the computer likes him to go over his points, rebounds and assist numbers tonight.
You’ll see that the computer likes to target less heralded players when looking at these props.
The idea here is that the star players are lined up correctly. The biggest edges can often be found on players who average 20 minutes or less. This is something that we can use the computer’s acumen to improve our own handicapping. Don’t just look at the star players’ props; the role players’ props are where the big edges are to be found.
Block Shortage
Finally, the computer likes Chet Holmgren going under 1.5 blocks.
Holmgren is only projected for 1.057 blocks, which gives you a cover probability of 71% on an expected value of +25.6%. With the Timberwolves shooting so many threes, it is not a surprise that the computer thinks Holmgren will not get that many block attempts. Holmgren has only gone over this number in one of the three games of the series and has only gone over this number in one of his last five games.
This situation is where the books are setting the line based on Holmgren’s season averages but the computer is weighting the recent results more heavily. The books are quick to throw up lines based on season averages. By weighting recent performances higher, we can often find an edge. This is what happened in this case.
The Picks
Take advantage of the OddsTrader’s cutting-edge computer projections and make these winning NBA picks.
- Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
- Aaron Wiggins Over 7.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100)
- Isaiah Joe over 5.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100)
- Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Blocks (+110)
*All odds from BetMGM
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
