Monday’s Top Pick
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
According to the MLB computers picks, the Minnesota Twins belong in Monday’s best bets when they visit the Miami Marlins – and we agree.
It’s very early in the 2023 regular season, but it didn’t take long for the betting markets to get sharp – at least when it comes to the totals. Through the first 49 games of the season, the over/under has been split right down the middle on the MLB odds board, 24-24-1.
Favorites, on the other hand, are 30-19 straight up and 28-21 against the run line. It’s a very small sample size for all of these straight bets, but the computers at OddsTrader have discovered one favorite in particular that looks extra-tasty for Monday’s Top 3 MLB picks.
- Twins vs. Miami Marlins: Twins ML (-125)
- Blue Jays vs. Royals: Over 8.5 (-115)
- Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Over 7.5 (-110)
Monday, April 03, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot Park
It didn’t take very long for the 2023 campaign to get away from the Marlins. They dropped three of their first four games, all at home, to the New York Mets by a combined score of 17-8. If you were unfortunate enough to bet a single unit on each of Miami’s games, you’re already down 2.07 units on the season.
Meanwhile, the Twins were busy sweeping their three-game set against the Kansas City Royals, outscoring Kansas City 11-4 for a quick 2.03 units in earnings.
There’s a big difference in quality between the Mets and Royals, of course. But you can say the same thing about the Twins and Marlins; Minnesota has designs on recapturing the American League Central division for the first time since the pandemic, while Miami projects to miss the playoffs – again.
Computers Can Tell the Difference
The computers can tell the difference. They have Minnesota winning Monday’s game by 3.2 runs to 2.7, which works out to a win expectancy of 58.4% when you run those numbers through a baseball Pythagorean calculator. And 58.4% works out to a fair moneyline of -140, so you’re getting a deal on the Twins as -125 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook.
If that doesn’t wet your betting whistle, consider Monday’s projected pitching matchup, with Tyler Mahle taking the mound for Minnesota opposite Johnny Cueto. Mahle (4.03 xFIP last year) is just entering his prime at age 28; Cueto (4.38 xFIP) still has something in the tank at age 37, but he’s no longer the All-Star he was in the mid-Tens.
Monday, April 03, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kaufmann Stadium
The Royals (Under 2-1) haven’t scored many runs thus far, but the computers like their game against the Blue Jays (Over 2-1) to go Over 8.5 runs at BetMGM. The projected final score for this matchup: Toronto 5.3, Kansas City 4.
That projection might be somewhat favorable for Toronto. Still, this is one of the most potent batting orders in the majors, at least in theory; the Jays were fifth overall in hitting value last year at plus-31.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to FanGraphs, and they figure to be in the same ballpark this year.
It hasn’t happened yet. Toronto checks in at No. 13 in WAR at this early stage, even though they scored 19 runs against the St. Louis Cardinals while dropping two of their three games at Busch Stadium. Slow starts for newcomers Daulton Varsho (.667 OPS) and Brandon Belt (.536 OPS) are part of the problem – if there is a problem.
The Royals are expected to give Brady Singer (3.30 xFIP last year) the start this Monday opposite Jose Berrios (4.21 xFIP), on what should be a reasonably nice evening at Kaufmann Stadium. Berrios struggled through most of 2022, so this might be a golden opportunity for the Royals to hold up their end of the scoring.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Monday, April 03, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
We wrap up with those aforementioned Mets, who have the Under at 2-1-1 despite their epic takedown of the Marlins in their opening series. They should have a harder time beating Milwaukee (Under 2-1), but with both teams at the end of their starting rotations, Over 7.5 at FanDuel is the right choice for your MLB picks.
That’s what the computers say. They’ve got the Brewers winning Monday’s contest 4.8 runs to four, leaving plenty of room to sneak in an Over bet. New York’s Carlos Carrasco (3.45 xFIP) and Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (3.66 xFIP) are making their season debuts; Peralta might be vulnerable after missing much of 2022 with lat and shoulder injuries, so bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) at FanDuel