A few months ago, we set out to track the performance of our in-house AI, OddsTrader Turbo, against the spread. It would’ve been one thing to log its wins and losses in a spreadsheet and call it a day, but instead, we turned it into a competition.
We identified six expert NFL analysts who publicly share their picks against the spread each week and ran their predictions against Turbo’s. After four weeks, only one expert had managed to beat our AI model.
Now, we’re halfway through the NFL season. There’s more data to work with and more results to reference, though the league remains as unpredictable as ever. Massive upsets have stumped bettors everywhere, which begs the question: Can AI help you win sports bets?
Let’s establish the playing field and take a look at how things have stacked up through the NFL’s midpoint.
What is OddsTrader Turbo?
OddsTrader Turbo is our proprietary AI betting model. It makes picks and player prop predictions for every game of the NFL season, as well as other sports, by utilizing countless data points and historical information.
Once it has a prediction prepared for a game, it identifies the best NFL odds and assigns a rating to its pick from one to five stars. The more stars, the more confidence in the pick.
Meet the Experts
Before the season started, we hand-picked top NFL analysts from a variety of well-known outlets. Choosing these experts at the start of the year was essential, as the slate was wiped clean and all betting records were an equal 0-0.
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic
Each of these analysts make public picks against the spread each week. We track them, as well as OddsTrader Turbo’s projections, every Thursday afternoon. Additionally, we also use public betting data to compare the analysts and our AI picks to the public consensus.
Previous Results: Through Week 4
At our last check-in following Week 4’s games, OddsTrader Turbo had topped all but one expert: Pete Prisco. He went 36-28 for a win rate of 56.3%. Below are the complete standings through Week 4:
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 36-28 (56.3%)
- OddsTrader Turbo: 31-30 (50.8%)
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 30-31-3 (49.2%)
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 30-34 (46.9%)
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 29-35 (45.3%)
- Public Consensus: 29-35 (45.3%)
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 28-36 (43.8%)
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 25-35-4 (42.2%)
You’ll notice that OddsTrader Turbo did not make a pick for every game. Occasionally, the AI will abstain from advising a bet when it deems the value to be too low. Through Week 4, it did not recommend a pick for three games: 49ers @ Saints, Panthers @ Cardinals, and Bengals @ Vikings.
Turbo vs. Experts Mid-Season Update
Initially, our experiment was only meant to last for the first four weeks of the season. However, curiosity got the best of us, and we decided to let it ride as a year-long study. That brings us to now: the NFL season’s halfway point.
Below, we’ll break down the results for Weeks 5-9, highlight anything notable, and see where things stand as we head into the back half of the year.
Week 5 Results
Week 5 was a relatively tough one across the board, with upsets including Broncos over Eagles, Patriots over Bills, and Jaguars over Chiefs.
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 10-4
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 9-5
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 9-5
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 7-7
- OddsTrader Turbo: 7-7
- Public Consensus: 7-7
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 6-8
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 5-9
Week 6 Results
There were more tough calls in Week 6, and OddsTrader Turbo abstained from one of them. The entire panel of experts, as well as the public, picked the Cowboys to cover as 3-point favorites against the Panthers. Dallas lost, 30-27.
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 12-3
- OddsTrader Turbo: 7-7
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 7-8
- Public Consensus: 7-8
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 6-9
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 6-9
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 6-9
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 6-9
Week 7 Results
Week 7 was especially bleak for OddsTrader Turbo, as it posted a 5-10 record. Commanders @ Cowboys, Packers @ Cardinals, and Buccaneers @ Lions proved to be difficult predictions for the panel. Altogether, the experts, public, and Turbo went 7-17 on these games.
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 11-4
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 9-6
- Public Consensus: 8-7
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 8-7
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 8-7
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 7-8
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 6-9
- OddsTrader Turbo: 5-10
Week 8 Results
OddsTrader Turbo got a bit of an edge back in Week 8 as the only member of the panel to correctly pick the Dolphins to cover against the Falcons. It was also one of three panelists to predict that the Jets would cover as 6.5-point underdogs against the Bengals.
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 9-4
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 9-4
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 8-5
- OddsTrader Turbo: 6-7
- Public Consensus: 5-8
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 5-8
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 5-8
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 5-8
Week 9 Results
For the first time since Week 3, OddsTrader Turbo finished atop the leaderboard in Week 9. Chargers @ Titans was a loss for every single panelist, though Turbo made up some ground by being the only participant to pick the Raiders to cover as 2-point underdogs against the visiting Jaguars.
- OddsTrader Turbo: 10-4
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 8-6
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 8-6
- Public Consensus: 6-8
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 6-8
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 5-9
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 4-10
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 4-10
Standings After Week 9
With the dust settled, let’s take a look at our current standings through Week 9:
- Frank Schwab, Yahoo Sports: 75-58-2 (56.3%)
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 68-67 (50.4%)
- OddsTrader Turbo: 66-65 (50.4%)
- Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: 64-71 (47.4%)
- Vic Tafur, The Athletic: 62-69-4 (47.4%)
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 62-73 (45.9%)
- Public Consensus: 62-73 (45.9%)
- Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 61-74 (45.2%)
Schwab has overtaken Prisco as the top expert, and both sit above OddsTrader Turbo. However, our AI picks are still performing better than four of our six experts and the public consensus, which continues to be unreliable.
So what can we take from this? Perhaps more than anything, it’s that you’re setting yourself up for failure by tailing the betting public. They consistently rank near the bottom of our weekly standings, and you’re unlikely to turn a profit by following suit.
Additionally, some analysts are reliable, while others have been less successful. Unfortunately, having a strong understanding of the NFL does not necessarily mean you’ll be great at betting on it.
We’ll continue tracking OddsTrader Turbo’s picks against the spread, as well as the experts’ and public’s predictions, for the rest of the NFL season. Stay tuned for our final results ahead of the playoffs.
