As International Fight Week reaches its penultimate date on the schedule, the Ultimate Fighting Championship prepares the octagon for an absolutely stacked fight card… UFC 317!
Brandon Royval, Joshua Van, Beneil Dariush, and ‘Money’ Moicano are involved in two main card wars, and I’ve spotted some legitimate betting value that we can attack with our bankroll.
On that note, let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC 317 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary:Â
- Royval ML (+105)
- Moicano ML (-115)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UFC 317 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 28, 2025 – 06:30 PM EDT
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira (UFC Lightweight Title Bout)
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
UFC 317 Flyweight Main Card Bout
Brandon Royval
With a 7-3 UFC record and back-to-back wins over former champion Brandon Moreno and divisional newcomer Tatsuro Taira, Royval is on somewhat of a tear. While losses are present, his only defeats since 2021 have been against the current champion, Alexandre Pantoja, thus proving that he’s a top-ranked mainstay and a serious threat to those ranked beneath him.
- Royval Pro MMA Record: 1
- Royval KOs: 3
- Royval Submissions: 8
Joshua Van
Ever since losing to Charles Johnson last summer, a 23-year-old Joshua Van has seemingly gone from strength to strength. Now riding a four-fight win streak, including a third-round knockout of Bruno Silva just three weeks ago!
Van steps up on short notice and a huge jump in competition, but more importantly, he’s just one win away from becoming the flyweight division’s number one contender, as stated by UFC CEO Dana White.
Are we looking at the UFC’s next youngest champion in history next to Jon ‘Bones’ Jones?
- Van Pro MMA Record: 14-2-0
- Van KOs: 7
- Van Submissions: 2
Royval vs. Van: Fight Tape Analysis
This could be a case of too much, too soon, for Joshua Van.
Don’t get me wrong, this kid is damn good, and he’s undoubtedly the future of the UFC at 125lbs. However, Royval, with significantly more experience and a much higher level of competition to date, has been in a similar spotlight many times before, and this veteran knowledge could be the difference maker this weekend.
And it isn’t just experience, Royval has the more complete game.
Van is predominantly a striker, and yes, he’s an ace at moving forward and outlanding his opposition. Still, the whole short-notice replacement situation and a question mark around his grappling level might not give him the advantage that the sportsbooks currently are.
UFC Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with our top-rated sportsbooks places Van as the betting favorite, but I’m sensing that recency bias and fan hype have created the line.
Royval has been preparing for one of the division’s best strikers, Manel Kape, so with another striker lined up, his game plan won’t be too different, and it’ll likely involve some form of grappling. But more importantly, this is a high-level flyweight contest, which we know are regularly closely contested, yet the more experienced fighter of the two is coming in at an underdog price.
The more seasoned and versatile martial artist, Royval, is the no-brainer pick for me here.
UFC Pick: Royval ML (+105) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
UFC 317 Lightweight Main Card Bout
Beneil Dariush
It’s been a long ole’ time since we last saw Beneil Dariush compete, December of 2023 to be precise, and if you forgot, he was quickly taken out by the formidable Arman Tsarukyan via knockout. More worryingly, his previous fight was a knockout loss to Charles Oliveira.
Now, we all love and respect Dariush, and his recent losses bear little shame when considering the level of opposition he faces. However, at age 36, you have to wonder how much he has left, especially when he’s been knocked out consecutively by opponents who aren’t known for their striking stoppages.
- Dariush Pro MMA Record: 22-6-1
- Dariush KOs: 5
- Dariush Submissions: 8
Renato Moicano
Next up for Dariush is the opponent that got away from UFC 311, as Renato ‘Money’ Moicano couldn’t ignore the bag when Islam Makhachev needed a last-minute opponent for the show’s main event. Well, he lost that fight, but previously, he was on the best run of his career (4-fight win streak) over big names like Benoit Saint-Denis, Jalin Turner, and Drew Dober.
Yes, Moicano is the same age (36) as Dariush, but his longevity seems to be more intact. Furthermore, he’s fought and defeated a slew of heavy-hitting strikers, and as a BJJ ace, could the wrestling-based Dariush, with questionable durability, be the perfect bounce-back spot?
- Moicano Pro MMA Record: 20-6-1
- Moicano KOs: 2
- Moicano Submissions: 10
Dariush vs. Moicano: Fight Tape Analysis
No matter how talented the fighter, long layoffs always worry me. I understand that consecutive knockout losses warranted some time off, and a fight cancellation was out of his control. Still, Dariush dealing with cage rust isn’t ideal, particularly when he wasn’t looking like his former self in fights from two years ago.
For me, this fight could favor Moicano solely based on longevity and durability. While Dariush is an elite grappler, Moicano is superb on the ground as well. More importantly for betting on this fight, the Brazilian is dangerous all-around, and the last thing Dariush needs is to deal with another renowned finisher who has 7 from 12 UFC wins resulting in stoppages.
UFC 317 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Moicano as the betting favorite, and it’s hard to disagree. In his fighting prime, Dariush would be a formidable opponent for anyone, but we cannot rely on his past skills, as they haven’t been displayed successfully since 2022.
I could be wrong, and Dariush could prove us wrong, but I have a funny feeling that the countless wars and 11 years of service in the UFC have caught up with the California native, and the faster, more agile and durable Moicano will take advantage of that.
UFC Pick: Moicano ML (-115) [1.15 returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
