The NFL’s Week 10 schedule begins Sunday with another game in Germany as Bill Belichick’s defense hopes to create turnovers from Gardner Minshew. We are also looking at Justin Herbert returning to big passing numbers against the Lions, a skill player who might actually produce in Jets-Raiders, a rebound game for Michael Thomas, and seeking another touchdown for D.K. Metcalf.
- Gardner Minshew (IND) Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-105) at BetRivers
- Justin Herbert (LAC) Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tyler Conklin (NYJ) Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Michael Thomas (NO) Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- D.K. Metcalf (SEA) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 09:30 AM ET at Deutsche Bank Park
Gardner Minshew (Indianapolis Colts)
Are the Colts starting to crack a little on offense? They are the only team in the NFL to score 20 points in every game this season, but they needed the defense to return 2 interceptions for touchdowns in Carolina last week to keep that streak alive.
Gardner Minshew led an offense that only had 198 yards on the day. Minshew only passed for 127 yards, but at least he ended his 3-game streak with an interception.
But maybe he starts another one in this matchup as mistakes are New England’s best hope of winning this one. Minshew threw 3 interceptions against Jacksonville earlier this season, then a couple of games with a single pick against the Browns and Saints. He threw an interception on 3.9% of his passes for the Eagles last year, which is a very high rate.
Minshew can be mistake prone like that, and with how bad offense has been in island games this year, an early game in Germany sounds like a good chance for him to throw a pick.
Bill Belichick’s defense has struggled more than usual this year, but it has intercepted Sam Howell, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Jimmy Garoppolo in the last 4 games. Here is to keeping that streak alive against Minshew.
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
If someone never watched the Chargers before the last 2 weeks, they might confuse them for a team with a great defense and so-so passing game. But that should change this week as the Chargers are hosting the Lions instead of the offensively-challenged Bears and Jets.
The Jets showed us how good their defense was even in defeat as they held Herbert to 136 passing yards on 30 attempts last Monday night. That was only the 3rd game in Herbert’s career where he was held under 5.0 yards per attempt.
The 136 passing yards were also Herbert’s career low by 31 yards. Herbert had passed for at least 167 yards in each of his first 57 games before Monday night. That means Herbert had his career-high game in passing this season (405 yards against Minnesota) and now his career-low.
This one should look like a normal Chargers game, which means a lot of Herbert passing, and probably a lot of points he’ll need to overcome from Detroit’s quality offense. The Lions shut down the Raiders in their last game before the bye, but they allowed Lamar Jackson to complete 21-of-27 passes for 357 yards a week before that. You can pass on Detroit even if the defense is improved from 2022 levels.
The Lions have dominated the running game this year as only Baltimore has cracked 100 yards on this defense. Look for Austin Ekeler to be held in check as a rusher, and this is a game where Herbert is probably going to need to throw for near 300 yards. We’ll gladly take the over 260.5 at -117 betting odds.
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Tyler Conklin (New York Jets)
Someone has to move the ball for yards in this game, right? We’ll trust the Jets to have some success as the Raiders have the worse defense in this matchup by far. For that matter, we just watched a game where the Jets scored 6 points while Zach Wilson passed for a season-high 263 yards.
No one said it needs to be efficient to hit this over for tight end Tyler Conklin, who had 6 catches for 66 yards against the Chargers last Monday. He also had 4 catches for 58 yards against the Chiefs in a Sunday night game earlier this season, so performing under the bright lights hasn’t made him irrelevant this year like it has for so many other skill players in prime time.
Can Conklin stack productive games? Yes, he can. Conklin went over 25.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games in Weeks 2-5. He only needed one more little catch against the Eagles to make it 5 games in a row.
Garrett Wilson can’t do it all for this passing game. Let’s show Conklin some love too and give him over 25.5 yards.
NFL Pick: Tyler Conklin Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints)
In the first 8 games this season, Michael Thomas had at least 42 yards, 3 catches, and 6 targets in every game. In Week 9 against the Bears, Thomas had just 1 target and no catches.
Your initial thought is probably injury, especially given the recent history for Thomas and injuries. But that was not the issue this time. Thomas did play a season-low 40 snaps against the Bears, but that was still 63% of the snaps that game. The ball just kept going elsewhere as tight end Juwan Johnson and gadget player Taysom Hill combined for 9 catches for the Saints.
Thomas has been a consistent contributor to this passing game this season, and he should get back on track with a bigger role this week in a game that could be offensive as the Vikings tend to get into games like that.
Another reason to like Thomas to bounce back is the Vikings like to blitz more than 50% of the time, the only defense to do that this season. If Derek Carr’s process is sped up from the blitz, his most reliable wide receiver on underneath routes is still Thomas rather than Chris Olave or deep threat Rashid Shaheed.
That is just another reason to think Thomas should hit his over this week after last week’s bagel against the Bears.
NFL Pick: Michael Thomas Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Lumen Field
D.K. Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks)
The Seahawks had an awful game last week in a 37-3 loss in Baltimore. One of the only bright spots on offense was D.K. Metcalf’s 50-yard catch, but it ended up being his only catch in the game.
Metcalf and the Seahawks should have a lot more success at home against a bad Washington defense. D.J. Moore (230 yards, 3 touchdowns) and A.J. Brown (over 130 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 different games) have both absolutely torched this pass defense, and Metcalf has the physical qualities to produce a huge game here.
But we are mostly looking for positive regression from Metcalf, who has not scored a touchdown since Week 4 against the Giants. While he has missed one game to injury, Metcalf has never had a season where he’s gone into Week 10 with only 2 touchdowns until now.
Going into Week 10 last year with Geno Smith as his quarterback, Metcalf had 510 yards and 4 touchdowns in 9 games. This season, he has 454 yards and 2 touchdowns despite playing in just 7 games. The numbers are still there except for the touchdowns. Let’s start correcting that this week with an NFL pick of Metcalf to score in what could be a close, high-scoring game in Seattle.
NFL Pick: D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook
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