The NFL’s Week 14 schedule has some interesting matchups in the AFC, where both teams could really use a win to stay alive for the wild card race, including Colts-Bengals and Broncos-Chargers. The NFC South also has a key rematch with the division-leading Falcons looking to sweep Tampa Bay.
We broke down the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Week 14.
Picks Summary
- Buccaneers-Falcons Under 39 Points (-107) at Unibet
- Colts-Bengals Over 40.5 Points (-110) at Bet365
- Broncos-Chargers Over 43 Points (-109) at BetRivers
Falcons Can Complete Sweep of Bucs
The Atlanta Falcons (6-6) can get back to a winning record and establish more of a lead in the NFC South by sweeping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7), who are badly in need of this win after beating Carolina last week.
The Falcons are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 39 points. We have been burned by the Falcons on these tiny spreads before this season, so we are looking at a similar game to last time with that under in mind.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Week 7 Recap: Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13
The Falcons have won a couple of road games this year without scoring 17 points, including a 13-8 win over the Jets last week. But the first time they did it in 2023 was their 16-13 win in Tampa Bay, which is huge for the NFC South standings right now.
After the teams exchanged touchdowns in the 1st quarter, it was a field goal fest the rest of the afternoon. Desmond Ridder had one of his best passing games of the season as he was 19-of-25 for 250 yards. He also rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. His problem was terrible ball security as he lost 3 fumbles in that game.
Baker Mayfield had chances to take the lead, but he was intercepted in a 13-10 game with the ball in scoring territory with just under 4 minutes left. After his defense got him the ball back, he was able to lead a game-tying field goal drive. But he still had 1st-and-goal from the Atlanta 8, so the Buccaneers could have ended this with a touchdown. The Atlanta defense held up and the Bucs settled for the kick.
But that left Ridder with 45 seconds, and he was able to lead the Falcons down the field into field goal range. Younghoe Koo is one of the better kickers in the league and he delivered from 51 yards with no time left to give the Falcons a key 16-13 win or else we could be talking about Tampa Bay still in 1st place in the division.
Which Defense to Trust? Why Not Both?
Tampa Bay struggled to score on the road with Tom Brady last year. It’s still an issue this year even though the team has scored at least 14 points on every road trip. But the Buccaneers are only averaging 19.4 points per game, the running game is still 32nd in yards per carry, and Baker has tunnel vision for Mike Evans.
Sure, Evans is having a great season, but 4 of 5 times, he’s topped 80 yards were at home. He had 82 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta in Week 7 and the Bucs still had just 13 points.
The Falcons are also not a scoring juggernaut at 18.8 points per game. Since Ridder returned to the starting lineup after a benching, he has passed for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Those are 2 full-game numbers. He also completed 52% of his passes and averaged just 6.0 yards per pass attempt, so he is not lighting it up by any means.
Both teams are going to lean on their defenses to lead the way to victory.
The Pick
The computer pick still likes Atlanta to win a close one, but the formula for Atlanta winning is for a low-scoring game again. The Falcons are 5-0 this season when holding teams under 20 points compared to 1-5 when allowing 20-plus points.
In a big divisional rematch between teams who know each other well with limited offenses, we’ll take the under for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Falcons 19 – Buccaneers 17
NFL Pick: Under 39 (-107) at Unibet
Backup Quarterback Shootout in Cincinnati?
We know the Indianapolis Colts (7-5) have done an impressive job of averaging 25.0 points per game this year for rookie coach Shane Steichen despite starting numerous backups at quarterback, running back, and tight end. But are the Bengals still a threat with Jake Browning after his incredible performance in a 34-31 win in Jacksonville?
The Colts are already down from a 2.5-point road favorite to a 1-point favorite in this one, and the total is 40.5 points. That latter number might also be going up, but the over is what we like best here.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
The Colts Continue to Thrive at Scoring
In a season where scoring is down, the Colts continue to defy expectations and score consistently with a rookie coach and backup quarterback (Gardner Minshew) leading the way. The Colts have scored at least 20 points in every game except for the 10-6 win over New England in Germany.
Last week, the Colts scored 31 points in Tennessee, and they did it in a variety of ways with the special teams contributing with 2 huge blocked punts, including one for a touchdown. Minshew was also great on a clutch drive in overtime to win the game on a touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr., who was left open all day by the secondary despite being by far the most accomplished receiver in this offense.
The Colts have done well with running back Jonathan Taylor out of the lineup too as Zack Moss has filled in nicely again.
With the Bengals recently looking very shaky on defense, it would be a shock if the Colts didn’t easily break 20 points in this game too.
Jake Browning Just Needed One Start to Figure Things Out?
When quarterback Jake Browning lost 16-10 to the Steelers in his first NFL start in Week 12, it didn’t inspire much confidence that the season was still relevant without Joe Burrow (wrist). Browning was not terrible, but he also looked indecisive and inaccurate with a couple of deflected completions that he was lucky weren’t intercepted.
But what a difference a week makes as Browning had an epic road start in Jacksonville, winning 34-31 in overtime against a team that is competing for the top seed. Browning was 32-of-37 for 354 yards, a touchdown, no turnovers, and he also rushed for 22 yards and another touchdown.
If the Jaguars finish this season as a playoff team with a winning record as we expect, that means Browning has done something Burrow’s never done for the Bengals – lead his team to 34 points on the road against a quality opponent.
We’ll see if it was just a 1-game wonder situation, but here is the list of every quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 85% of their passes in a game with at least 35 pass attempts:
- Rich Gannon
- Drew Brees (twice)
- Aaron Rodgers
- Peyton Manning
- Tom Brady
- Dak Prescott
- Russell Wilson
- Lamar Jackson
- Patrick Mahomes
- Justin Herbert
- Jake Browning
That is quite the list to be part of. With a great wide receiver trio and Joe Mixon in the backfield, Browning has the pieces around him to lead a good offense. He should find some favorable matchups against these Colts, who have allowed at least 28 points in half of their games this year.
The Pick
Some matchups between backup quarterbacks make you groan, but this one is interesting with both teams fighting for the playoffs and how well Browning played on Monday night. We should see it continue with another quality scoring game from both, as this one should clear the over again. The over is 8-4 in Indianapolis games, tied for the highest hit rate in the league this season.
Score Prediction: Colts 25 – Bengals 22
NFL Pick: Over 40.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
First Russ vs. Herbert Matchup in AFC West
This is essentially an elimination game between the Broncos (6-6) and Chargers (5-7) as neither team can afford another loss in this contested AFC playoff race. This is the first matchup of the season between the AFC West rivals, and the first time Justin Herbert will square off with Russell Wilson as a Bronco.
The Chargers are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 43 points. Once again, we prefer betting on the total as the parity (read: mediocrity) in the league this year has often made the spread much more difficult to predict.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Chargers Really Won 6-0 in New England
The Chargers are coming off one of the weirdest games in NFL history, and surprisingly, they were on the winning end of things.
- The Chargers beat the Patriots 6-0 in New England, which is only the 5th game since 1994 with 6 combined points or fewer.
- The game had just 1 turnover, which was a key fumble by New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson in the 1st quarter.
- The game had no missed field goals.
- The Chargers’ only scoring drives were field goals that covered 27 and 7 yards, so Herbert didn’t even lead a 30-yard scoring drive in the game.
- The Chargers had a season-low 13 1st downs and allowed a season-low 13 1st downs.
It is a bit worrisome that the Chargers scored a season-low 6 points a week after a season-low 10 points against the Ravens at home. Anything lower would be a field goal or a shutout this week, but the Broncos and Chargers played a 31-28 game the last time these teams met in 2022.
It was less than a month ago when the Chargers dropped 38 points on the Lions, and they may have only had 20 points in Green Bay, but they dropped and fumbled the ball repeatedly to spoil one of Herbert’s best games ever.
This offense should get back on track with a game that’s more in their wheelhouse at home against a non-elite opponent. Chalk up last week’s 6-0 to getting sucked into the 1930s vortex that is the Patriots right now, a team that’s played 3 straight games where no one broke 10 points.
Russ Wasn’t Cooking in Houston
Denver’s 5-game winning streak ended in Houston after Russell Wilson threw 3 interceptions on the team’s last 4 drives. It was a real test for Denver to see if the offense could thrive in a game without turnovers setting up short fields, and it did not go well as Houston did not turn it over once.
The Chargers are also usually good at not turning the ball over, though they did have 4 giveaways in their last home game against the Ravens. They also gave up 31 to Denver last year in Week 18. The pass defense is still 32nd in the league, so this can be a great game for Wilson and his receivers to show off their progress this year.
But the Denver running game has been more consistent than the passing game, and the Chargers also rank below average against the run as they usually do under Brandon Staley. This is Sean Payton’s first crack at a Staley defense in Los Angeles, and he will use the backs wisely in this matchup.
The Pick
We usually get a good, close game out of these teams. The computer score looks more than reasonable, and even if the Chargers are held to 23 or 24 points, that would still be enough to hit this over as long as Wilson brings some of his moon balls for Courtland Sutton to catch against a secondary that allows 290 yards per game.
Wilson may not be fully back yet under Payton, but he’s certainly better than Bailey Zappe.
Score Prediction: Chargers 27 – Broncos 21
NFL Pick: Over 43 (-109) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
