It’s that special time of year again.
Back in 2003, Richard Borghesi dropped one of the seminal works of the early Moneyball era for sports betting, “Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market.” The upshot: Home underdogs gain value starting in Week 15, and the bigger the spread, the better.
This shift in value has stood the test of time versus the point spread; when it comes to our NFL player props, Week 15 should have something for this week’s NFL picks as well.
NFL Picks Week 15 At-a-Glance
The plan for our NFL prop bets for Week 15 is simple: We’re going to focus on players from the biggest home dogs in the yard, and we’re going to keep hammering the Over.
Alas, we only have three dogs to choose from this week, and they’re all on the teacup size, but this is where the betting value is for our football picks – if the situation is right.
Cincinnati’s RB Chase Brown (Over 49.5 Rushing Yards –114)
Sunday, December 14, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
What can our Chase Brown props do for you? Ideally, we’re looking for matchups where the favorites are struggling, and maybe about to mail in their season; even better, we want them to travel long distances to play in bad weather.
We’re meeting some of those criteria for our NFL player props when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS). They’ve lost back-to-back games, including in Week 13 when the Bengals (4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS) beat them 32-14 as 7.5-point road dogs, in QB Joe Burrow’s return to active duty.
The problem here is that Baltimore is still just one game out of first place in the awful AFC North. But that also means Cincinnati is still technically in the playoff hunt; as for the weather, it’s supposed to be a very cold 17 degrees at the stadium, feeling more like 13 when you account for the light winds.
The Ravens don’t have to fly far to get there, but the weather for Sunday’s game will presumably put more focus on Brown (55.9 rushing yards per game) to carry the load for the Bengals – and he already had 78 yards rushing on 15 carries in their previous meeting.
New Orleans QB Tyler Shough (Over 31.5 Pass Attempts –105)
Sunday, December 14, 2025 – 04:25 PM ET
The NFL player prop projections say our Tyler Shough prop is a minus-EV bet, but they might be missing the boat at 30.878 pass attempts; Shough (30.4 pass attempts per start, five starts) threw just 20 times for the Saints (3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS) during last week’s soggy 24-20 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–7.5 at home).
Weather shouldn’t be a factor for Sunday’s tilt at the Superdome, and the Carolina Panthers (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) are tied with Tampa for first in the NFC South, so the usual Week 15 betting angles aren’t really helping us here – it’s mostly about Shough being free to throw the ball again.
Denver QB Bo Nix (Under 0.5 Interceptions –115)
Sunday, December 14, 2025 – 04:25 PM ET
Yes, we’re hitting the Under for our last NFL player prop, but we’re betting that Bo Nix (nine picks in 13 starts) won’t throw an interception during Sunday’s contest, so our Nix prop still looks like a plausibly recreational bet from a fan of the Broncos (11-2 SU, 5-7-1 ATS).
There’s no way the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) are mailing this one in, and it’s supposed to be a lovely day at Mile High Stadium – not that Green Bay would let bad weather spoil their mood.
But what if we told you the Packers were below league average (plus-0.02 Expected Points Added per play, as per nfelo) against the pass?
Place Your NFL Bets Now!
None of our three home dogs is getting more than a field goal as we go to press, so we might have to wait a while longer before we can really take advantage of those late-season betting angles that Borghesi revealed for us.
But we still have three solid choices here for our NFL player props Week 15. These ones might have even more value for us as we get closer to kick-off, so download the free OddsTrader App to keep track of the latest football odds, and bet accordingly.
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