The NFL’s Week 17 schedule has some huge matchups for the playoff races, including a battle for the No. 1 seed between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. We are also looking at a big one in Kansas City against the Bengals, and the Steelers and Seahawks are both trying to stay alive for a wild card position.
We went through the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Week 17.
Picks Summary
- Ravens -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Steelers-Seahawks Under 41 Points (-110) at Bet365
- Bengals-Chiefs Over 45 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore’s Revenge Game
One of the wildest games in the 2022 NFL season was when Baltimore blew a 21-point lead in the 4th quarter against Miami. The teams meet for the 1st time since that game in a game that can decide home-field advantage in the AFC after the Ravens (12-3) beat the 49ers impressively on Monday night. But the Dolphins are also coming off a big win over Dallas.
The Ravens are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 47 points. We are looking at the spread.
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Recapping Last Year’s Matchup
When these teams met in Week 2 of the 2022 season, it was only the 2nd game for Miami coach Mike McDaniel. We still didn’t know exactly what his offense was, but it came alive in this game with Tua Tagovailoa passing for 469 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Tyreek Hill made the key plays in the 4th quarter on long touchdown bombs to finish with 190 yards, but Jaylen Waddle also had 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. Miami had to erase a 35-14 deficit in the 4th quarter after a big start from the Ravens. Tagovailoa’s 6th and final touchdown pass went to Waddle with 14 seconds left.
Lamar Jackson had arguably the best game of his career in a loss with 21-of-29 passing for 318 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks or sacks, and he ran for 119 yards and another touchdown. All that for a loss is crazy, but the game may have swung differently had the Ravens not dropped an interception halfway through the 4th quarter when Miami was still down 14 points.
That loss led to Baltimore blowing 6 more leads of multiple scores since, something we are not used to seeing from these Ravens under John Harbaugh. For that matter, even Monday night’s big win in San Francisco got dicey for a minute when it looked like the 49ers could turn a 21-point deficit into a 7-point game before the 2-minute warning. But Sam Darnold was eventually intercepted to end the threat.
The Ravens make you nervous with the lead, but they will have to get revenge on a Miami team that has not been able to win a big road game since this Week 2 matchup a season ago.
Miami on the Road vs. Good Teams
In case you missed it, the Dolphins are 0-3 this year on the road against winning teams, losing convincingly to the Bills (48-20), Eagles (31-17), and Chiefs (21-14). In fact, McDaniel hasn’t won on the road against a playoff team since that 21-point comeback in Week 2 against Baltimore last year.
The Dolphins pulled off a 22-20 win over Dallas on Sunday, which snapped an 8-game losing streak to teams with at least 8 wins. Bsaically, the Dolphins are the Cowboys of the AFC where you cannot trust them to score much and beat the good teams, especially on the road.
This is a huge test as the Ravens are the No. 1 scoring defense and just embarrassed a highly-efficient San Francisco offense. The Dolphins have been banged up with recent injuries to Tyreek Hill, Waddle, and Raheem Mostert. At least Tagovailoa has been healthy all year, but he’ll have a hard time recreating his monster game against this Baltimore defense that is better all around than in 2022.
The Miami defense also has a lot to prove after giving up that huge game to Jackson last year. Jackson is the new MVP favorite, though it is hard to call his season a traditional MVP-caliber one. But he is producing results and the team is thriving with a blown lead against the Browns being the only thing preventing them from riding a 10-game winning streak into this one.
The Pick
The Ravens just showed again they can go on the road and beat an elite team. The Dolphins have struggled to do that under McDaniel, and the more physical Ravens are a tough matchup in Baltimore. We’ll ride the hot hand and trust the Ravens to not blow a lead this time and take care of business for the top seed.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27 – Dolphins 22
NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Pete Carroll and Mike Tomlin Prefer It Close and Low Scoring
There are many comparisons to draw between Pete Carroll’s Seahawks and Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. One would be that they are trying to stay relevant after losing their Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger.
Carroll has gotten the better end of that with Geno Smith proving to be a reliable starter while Tomlin has a tough decision to make at that position this week. Does he continue with Mason Rudolph after a big win over Cincinnati, or does he go back to starter Kenny Pickett coming off an injury?
Either way, it is a virtual must-win game for these teams. The Seahawks are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 41 points. We are focusing on the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Lumen Field
Can the Steelers Score in Seattle?
We have to be very careful in thinking the Steelers are going to be a good offense by keeping Mason Rudolph as the starter. While Rudolph had a big game in a 34-11 win against the Bengals, it was largely aided by huge YAC plays from George Pickens that he usually does not deliver at that level.
There also is the Cincinnati factor:
- Pittsburgh has 2 games since 2022 with 30 points scored and both were against Cincinnati (1 game in 2022 and 1 game in 2023).
- Pittsburgh has 2 games since 2022 with 380 yards of offense and both were against the Bengals this year, including the team’s only 400-yard game since 2020.
- Cincinnati’s defense in 2023 ranks 21st in points and 31st in yards allowed.
Going back to Pickett also could have some negative effects as he is not an aggressive passer as he looks to avoid any interceptions. Those big plays to Pickens may never happen if he was in the game instead of Rudolph.
Seattle is not a great defense but it has held 6 teams to 17 points this year, including the Eagles in the last home game.
Geno Smith Ready for T.J. Watt?
The Seahawks continue to have an interesting split this year: 8-1 when scoring more than 16 points and 0-6 when not scoring more than 16 points.
Low-scoring games are not uncommon for Seattle. In fact, 7 of 15 games have finished under 41 points this year for Seattle. The running game has been inconsistent with Kenneth Walker, and Geno Smith’s accuracy has not been as good as last year.
The Steelers have injuries in the secondary, but they made it work against the Bengals last week, holding them to 11 points despite a big game from Tee Higgins. The Steelers may not be able to shut down D.K. Metcalf entirely, but they have only allowed 3 teams to surpass 24 points this year. Two of those teams were the Kyle Shanahan-style offense with the 49ers and Texans (C.J. Stroud).
Starting Kenny Pickett feels like it would be even more advantageous for the under as it is imperative for the Steelers to keep the score down if they want to win the game late with him on the final drive.
The Pick
Odd score prediction, but we like the idea of the under in this matchup. Both defensive coaches know how important this game is, the offenses are still suspect despite the big wins last week, and there is too much uncertainty at the quarterback position for Pittsburgh.
They are not playing Cincinnati this week, so you cannot trust the Steelers to score enough to help this game go over.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 20 – Steelers 15
NFL Pick: Under 41 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Chiefs Running Out of Time
Kansas City has been eliminated from winning the No. 1 seed in the AFC. At this rate, the Chiefs are not even a lock to win the AFC West after losing 20-14 to the Raiders in arguably the ugliest game of the Patrick Mahomes era.
The Bengals lost 34-11 in Pittsburgh, showing they are the only defense in the league that struggles this much against the Steelers. Jake Browning is 3-0 in his other starts when not facing the Steelers.
Can Browning get a road win in Kansas City with the playoffs still on the line for Cincinnati? This is a growing rivalry and this chapter would really add to that if Browning can pull off the upset against a struggling Kansas City team.
But the Chiefs are still an 8-point home favorite with a total of 45 points. We are looking at the over.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Is Kansas City’s Offense Broken?
The Chiefs looked fundamentally broken against the Raiders on Christmas. They had minus-18 yards of offense in the 1st quarter and things only got worse from there as a pair of defensive touchdowns on turnovers were scored in a 7-second span. That basically did the Chiefs in as the Raiders won the game despite not completing a pass in the final 3 quarters.
Patrick Mahomes was feeling the rush all day and ran for his life, often to no avail. The dropped passes were not as bad this time, but they weren’t missing. More than that, Mahomes was just not trusting his receivers, not reading the defense properly because of the rush, and the Chiefs just looked awful in the 20-14 loss.
The Bengals have played the Chiefs very well since 2021, but they did lose the last game at Arrowhead in the playoffs. Mahomes threw for over 300 yards with a high-ankle sprain. Maybe he can do something similar this week as the Bengals are 31st in yards allowed and nearly gave up a 300-yard game to Mason Rudolph in Pittsburgh last week.
The Chiefs have to start protecting the ball better as the turnovers and drops are out of control. They can manage the other things like pressures, but they have to hold onto the ball and finish drives more often. Fortunately, the Bengals present an opportunity for them to do that this week.
Pittsburgh Is Jake Browning’s Kryptonite
Jake Browning has been very good in filling in for Joe Burrow, but he has lost both starts to Pittsburgh, a defense he threw 3 picks against last week. But Browning has passed for at least 275 yards in 4 straight games, and he could have Ja’Marr Chase back this week to go with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
The Chiefs have played very good defense this year, but they have shown some cracks in recent weeks. With the way these teams have game planned for each other so many times since December 2021, the Bengals have a better read than most on the Chiefs.
If Browning can survive the pass rush – Burrow took 5 sacks in the 2022 AFC Championship Game – then he will find open receivers in this secondary. He has the accuracy to hit them unlike Aidan O’Connell for the Raiders, who somehow won that game after not completing anything after the 1st quarter.
The Bengals take games against the Chiefs extra seriously, and this is now or never for their playoff run. It would be surprising if they didn’t find a way to score at least 17 points in this game.
The Pick
The computer score still likes the Chiefs to cover, but this team is 3-5 in the last 8 games and looks like they are getting worse instead of better with the playoffs coming. However, we like the score going over as this has good value for being a huge bounce-back game for Mahomes against a weak defense that is giving up big numbers.
It also is a non-Pittsburgh defense, so maybe Browning can look good again as the Steelers have had his number. Either way, we hope for another good Bengals-Chiefs game as this can only add to the rivalry if the game is exciting and close.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 28 – Bengals 18
NFL Pick: Over 45 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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